UK MetOffice predicts HOT 2007
January 16th, 2007 by Warwick HughesThe UK Met Office is predicting that 2007 will be warmer than 1998. We are accustomed to “hottest year” stories jumping out in November or December, but early January !!, this seems prescient beyond belief.
Reading deeper into this story we find the UKMO is relating the 2006 El Nino to the 1997 event and concluding that 2007 will exceed the warmth of 1998. Looking at this small figure from the NOAA web page:
and comparing 1997-98 to 2006-07, it is hard to see that 2007 will be particularly hot. The 1997-98 El Nino was a monster compared to the “on again, off again tiddler” of 2006.
We will see, read on for full article.
2007 could be ‘hottest on record’
From correspondents in London
January 04, 2007 11:06am
Article from: Agence France-Presse news.com.auTHE coming year was likely to be the warmest on record around the world, climate change experts at Britain’s Met Office said today.
The global temperature was predicted to be 0.54C above the 1961-1990 average of 14C, it said.
It said there was a 60 per cent probability that 2007 would be as warm or even warmer than the current warmest year on record, 1998.
The potential for a record is linked to the presence of a moderate El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which was “expected to persist through the first few months of 2007”, the Met Office said.
“The lag between El Nino and the full global surface temperature response means that the warming effect of El Nino is extended and therefore has a greater influence on the global temperatures during the year,” it said.
Katie Hopkins from Met Office Consulting said: “This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world.”
El Nino is an occasional seasonal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that upsets normal weather patterns from the western seaboard of Latin America to East Africa, and potentially has a global impact on climate.
It has been blamed for widespread bushfires and drought in Australia, heavy rain in East Africa and other severe weather conditions elsewhere in the world in recent months.
Posted in Atmospheric science, Climate indicators, IPCC, News and Views, Surface Record | 5 Comments »
January 16th, 2007 at 6:19 am
Of course, these stories of cold snaps www.iceagenow.com/2007_Other_Parts_of_the_World.htm just confirm the inexorable march of Global Warming, don’t they?
January 16th, 2007 at 6:31 am
Perhaps the AGW worriers should all emigrate to New Zealand, I see it’s cooling there, at least since 1998.
www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC0701/S00011.htm
January 17th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
Antipodally …. “You call that an El Nino?….. that’s not an El Nino …. ”
In all seriousness, there are two things about the currently fading ENSO event:
1) As experienced here on the US West Coast, the weather thus far this rainy season has been 90 degrees out of phase with “normal” El Nino weather – normally: Northwestern drought, Southwestern flooding, warm – actual: Northwesrtern flooding, Southwestern drought, very, very, very cold!
2) As mentioned above, simply in ENSO index / time terms, this has been a fizzled El Nino and will soon be gone.
January 22nd, 2007 at 1:36 am
Steve,
We lost quite a few plants around here. Artichokes, avocados, etc. This is the longest cold spell in recent memory.
January 22nd, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Brooks – I am getting quite worried that we are experiencing a repeat of the Winter of 1975 – 1976. I really hope that it is not followed by another Winter of 1976 – 1977 equivalent. The combination of extreme cold and extreme drought is deadly. Interestingly, the killer cold-drought of 1975 – 1977 was happening during the flip of the PDO from negative to positive. We are overdue for a return flip, from positive back to negative. Hmmmmm …..