The UK Met Office is predicting that 2007 will be warmer than 1998. We are accustomed to “hottest year” stories jumping out in November or December, but early January !!, this seems prescient beyond belief.
Reading deeper into this story we find the UKMO is relating the 2006 El Nino to the 1997 event and concluding that 2007 will exceed the warmth of 1998. Looking at this small figure from the NOAA web page:
and comparing 1997-98 to 2006-07, it is hard to see that 2007 will be particularly hot. The 1997-98 El Nino was a monster compared to the “on again, off again tiddler” of 2006.
We will see, read on for full article.
2007 could be ‘hottest on record’
From correspondents in London
January 04, 2007 11:06am
Article from: Agence France-Presse news.com.au
THE coming year was likely to be the warmest on record around the world, climate change experts at Britain’s Met Office said today.
The global temperature was predicted to be 0.54C above the 1961-1990 average of 14C, it said.
It said there was a 60 per cent probability that 2007 would be as warm or even warmer than the current warmest year on record, 1998.
The potential for a record is linked to the presence of a moderate El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which was “expected to persist through the first few months of 2007”, the Met Office said.
“The lag between El Nino and the full global surface temperature response means that the warming effect of El Nino is extended and therefore has a greater influence on the global temperatures during the year,” it said.
Katie Hopkins from Met Office Consulting said: “This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world.”
El Nino is an occasional seasonal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that upsets normal weather patterns from the western seaboard of Latin America to East Africa, and potentially has a global impact on climate.
It has been blamed for widespread bushfires and drought in Australia, heavy rain in East Africa and other severe weather conditions elsewhere in the world in recent months.