The Reserve Bank of Australia joins climate alarmists – Climate Change and the Economy – must be anticipating the near certainty of a GreenLabor election win next month.
The Reserve Bank of Australia joins climate alarmists – Climate Change and the Economy – must be anticipating the near certainty of a GreenLabor election win next month.
I guess economic theory is every bit as rubbery as Climate science.
If it does not match your particular tea leaf reading, you can always say the dog ate my homework or a Black Swan shagged my Peacock after a bad “trip”.
They should stick to supporting the value of the $A & keeping the Big 4 in line.
My savings deposit currently accrues 0.5% interest. The bank loans that deposit out at 12.5%.
The RBA pretends that’s “fair”. So fair, in fact, that the 0.5% is about to be reduced.
The RBA’s scientific illiteracy, as espoused in Debelle’s talk referenced here, is matched by it’s numerical malice.
[If someone wants me to justify the illiteracy tag, please just ask.]
RBA consistently gets future economic predictions wrong.
Climate change modelling is a good fit for them.
eg.
www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-the-rba-has-been-terrible-at-forecasting-wages-growth-for-years-2017-3
The essay is by Deputy Governor Guy Debelle.
Usually the Deputy Governor moves up to the top job, so it’s a bit of a worry that Debelle is sold on this rubbish. There are several conceptual flaws in his analysis, but the worst one to my mind is when he falls for the “Levelised Cost of Electricity” scam.
How many times does this site have to point out that LCOE provides a completely inappropriate comparison of the relative costs of dispatchable and non-dispatchable power? www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=1373&cpage=1
It’s been known for years and written up academically, but somehow the message just never sinks in. See economics.mit.edu/files/6317
Take-away message: “The LCOE is like a bad line of code in a software program used to develop other software programs. It has dangerously skewed investors’ understanding of the economics of generating electricity from renewable energy resources. It has also had perverse and difficult to undo impacts on local, state and federal energy policies.” www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2014/11/29/levelized-cost-of-electricity-renewable-energys-ticking-time-bomb/#4ea09cd51659
The key point is that the intermittency of solar and wind wrecks the economics of other generating sources, driving them out of business and leaving the system fragile and vulnerable. That cannot be factored in to LCOE methods. You end up with spoilt markets and catastrophic failures like the blackouts in South Australia.
And that’s to say nothing about the huge environmental costs of wind and solar – the land taken out of production, the thousand tonnes of concrete in the base of every wind turbine, millions of bird, bat and insect deaths from wind turbines and thermal solar arrays, pollution disasters in China from mining the rare earths for solar panels etc. etc. Plus guess what – negligible CO2 reductions after you’ve done it all, as Germany and Spain have found out.
I would think that the RBAs greatest economic threat comes from radical climate change policies, such as those being proposed by the ALP, which would result in a serious economic crash if implemented. Strangely, the RBA doesn’t mention these risks.
@ Serge Wright
> “Strangely, the RBA doesn’t mention these risks [ALP Govt]”
Debelle can at least read opinion polls, unlike hard science papers, and he knows well which side will butter his bread from May 19th