“No way” anyone will fund new coal plants under NEG, says Schott. It puzzles me what Dr Schott thinks will happen to prices and reliability if we allow deterioration and shutdowns of our existing coal fired fleet. Here are average AEMO prices for the last 12 months in order of greatest percentage of coal fired installed capacity.
Qld $74.29 – NSW $81.93 – Vic $95.04 – SA $100.92 – Tas $92.06
Victoria was close in price to Qld and NSW in 2013 to 2016 (at ~$50 or under) before the disruptions of Port Augusta and Hazelwood coal fired shutdowns. Is there a pathway to holding prices at current levels and having 365/24/7 reliable power if we progressively shut down the coal units?
Obviously wind is not reliable, best locations are used and NIMBY’s oppose new projects.
Solar PV is only daytime.
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Gas has greater upside price risk than coal and NIMBY’s oppose new plants.
Hydro is a bit player and NIMBY’s oppose new everything.
Nuclear is a political no-no.
Is their any rational way ahead without coal?
Damn! and I was going to drop off my coal at Newcastle too. 🙁
Seriously though, only time mixed with pain is going to fix this. Unless an Australian Donald Trump emerges.
Cheers
Roger
www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
Warwick
> ” … any rational way ahead without coal?”
Rationality has nothing to do with it.
By now, a (perhaps slim, but increasing) majority of the Aus middle class is convinced that CO2 is a pollutant. They are convinced that cooling towers are actually monstrous, ecologically destructive smokestacks and that wind and sun installed en-mass in the enormous never-never Aus deserts will serve us well.
In short, they have assumed the “burden of eco-guilt”. In a relatively short twenty years or so, a text-book “how to” in creating a new religion has been performed. Guilt is *always* the main form factor here, the critical enabling lever. So rationality is irrelevant.
Of course it is one thing to opine that no “new coal fired” will be built. But there is a wide range of policy in front of that ranging from –
A – existing plant should be prudently maintained and run for as long as economic –
to –
B – plant should be neglected or have the bare minimum spent on maintenance and basically run into the ground leading to early closure.
Liddell is providing a test case so see where our policy ends up between A and B.
Getting her out of the USA is helping to make USA great again.
Ianl, I do not agree that the majority of the Australian middle class believe CO2 is a pollutant. It is just a minor number of socialist elite.
Anyway here is a utube video from a nobel prize physicist that puts the opposite case www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=21&v=AEYuYCKv5Vo
Find it via EM Smiths (Chiefio) blog which is worth looking at occasionally for the variety of subjects and discussion.