Recent rain through Queensland and the centre has so quickly ruined the BoM rain Outlook for March and probably longer.
Real world rain below-
In a priceless twist the Mar to May Outlook was referred to by the BoM in Senate Estimates on 26Feb18 when questioned by Senator Di Natale.
Hansard 20268 26Feb18
Senator DI NATALE: Thank you. What do you expect this year in terms of climate?
Senator Birmingham: What we expect this year would be, I suspect, a prediction of weather.
Mr Webb: We’re in the midst of a La Nina now, but a decaying La Nina; it was very weak. Over the next few
months at least, which is really as far as the bureau tends to predict, a three-month window in advance—typically
coming out of these types of events you do see a dry patch. That’s what we are anticipating: drier than normal
conditions over much of the country. Tasmania is a bit of an exception there. Tasmania and maybe a strip along
the east coast could be a little bit wetter than normal. The odds are leaning towards that, but, of course, as the
Senator DI NATALE: You’re talking about over the next three months?
Mr Webb: Over the next few months, yes.
Senator Whish-Wilson interjecting—
Mr Webb: Yes, it’s amazing the way that rainfall works in Australia. We’ve seen on a number of occasions,
and Canberra being yesterday, that we can quickly go from below average over time to above average in about
three hours. That’s the reality of some of the drivers. It doesn’t mean that everywhere will be bone dry—there will
be periods of intense rainfall in all of these locations—but generally speaking drier than normal and warmer than
normal as well over the next few months. That’s consistent with a decaying La Nina, as we’ve got. Things look
fairly settled as far as neutral conditions continuing through into the winter period.
The initial Dorothy Dixer by Senator DI NATALE was clipped through the covers by Senator Birmingham but the know all BoM could not shut up. The first contradiction I wanted to point out is where the BoM says – We’re in the midst of a La Nina now, but a decaying La Nina; it was very weak.
There is no way it was optimal on 26Feb18 to say “We’re in the midst of a La Nina now..” The BoM on 13Feb18 said –
The La Niña in the Pacific Ocean continues to decline.
Then further on at Estimates the BoM says “It doesn’t mean that everywhere will be bone dry—there will be periods of intense rainfall in all of these locations—but generally speaking drier than normal…”
Reading that quote carefully it is an impossible nonsense and the BoM should be asked to clarify.
However I see not the slightest chance the BoM would be held to account at Senate Estimates.