Russian scientist says the Arctic may be getting colder

Marc Morano passed on this article quoting Oleg Pokrovsky of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory.
Thanks to Eduardo Ferreyra for this tip that Arctic sea ice extent is at its highest for this time of the year, since 2003.

7 comments to Russian scientist says the Arctic may be getting colder

  • W,
    This WUWT post might also interest as it includes commentary on Melbourne metro station data and uhi…Butterfly study: a case study in confirmation bias
    wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/23/butterfly-study-a-case-study-in-confirmation-bias/

    Marc

  • WSH

    Thanks MarcH – A few quick points –
    I agree it is ludicrous that the authors quote Laverton as a rural station.
    The Melbourne UHI was mapped by CJ Morris in the early 1990’s and Laverton is well within the warming contours of his headline map.
    A transect was run at night from the far north to the CBD and then SW past Laverton. Results were published in the press – that figure was reproduced by the BoM and shows Laverton clearly within the envelope of warmer air on the night of the transect.
    Melbournes urban area extends much more to the SE compared to the western side so I would be interested to see where these butterfly observations were made. I look forward to seeing a copy of the paper sometime.
    Back in January in an article commenting on BoM claims of record hot Melbourne nights – I included this graphic showing the growth of the Melbourne UHI at night over 60 years.

  • At Spitsbergen an all time pick occurred in 2006 (-1.46°C), decreasing 2007 (-2.35°C), 2008 (-4.04°C), and unchanged 2009 (-3.93°C) (Source Nasa/Giss). What matters is the heat transport to the Arctic Ocean (AO) by ocean currents, the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) in particular, that is playing a significant role in the process of Arctic warming, www.arctic-warming.com/Arctic-Temperatures-Multidecadal-Oscillation.php .
    Only few months ago Oleg Pokrovsky provided a somewhat different analysis (in September 2009 – extract- ): “Major impact factor to the ice extent variability in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean is the SST anomalies in the Northern Atlantic in previous month. The SST anomaly in May 2009, which is now available but was not for previous report, demonstrated a “warm tongue” of the inflow stream directed to Eastern part of Arctic. That explained a more ice degradation in this part of Arctic Ocean with account to reference 1979-2000. Invasion of more warm Atlantic waters appeared recently in North Atlantic could lead to further reduction of the ice extent here. ( see:*) The newest sea ice data seem to have surprised him and changed his mind, which would presumably not have happened if he and his fellow colleagues would be able and willing to understand and explain the sudden and extreme Arctic Warming since 1919 that lasted until 1940 (Details at: www.arctic-heats-up.com/

    (*)www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/july_report/downloads/pdf/panarctic/6_Pokrovsky_JulyReport_JuneData.pdf

  • WSH

    A decade ago I wrote this page on Spitzbergen;
    I am sceptical that pre WWII warming in Isfjord Radio could be so confined.

  • Many thanks WSH for page on Spitsbergen.
    Stations at Jan Mayen and Boar Island were only set up in 1920, but the temperature jump at Spitsbergen had been in winter 1918/19. From where should the warmth have come from if not from the West Spitsbergen Current, and which is sea-ice free at Spitsbergen? The solidity of the Spitsbergen data have never been questioned, which would not be easy, as the Arctic warming since 1919 is evident, e.g.
    ___(warming 1921-1930, based on HH Lamp) www.arctic-heats-up.com/img/c2-p3_s.jpg ; for details see: see Chapter 3 at: www.arctic-heats-up.com/chapter_3.html , and
    ___it was evident (-inter alias-) at: Andenes/Norway www.arctic-warming.com/annexes/G/Andenes.jpg
    ___and Greenland (Angmagssalik) www.arctic-warming.com/annexes/G/Angmagssalik.jpg

    Interesting is also what can be found
    concerning the “suddenness” of temperature increase in winter 1918/19 at: www.john-daly.com/press/press-03b.htm , >>Postscript: 8 Oct 03 <<:
    ___“Willis Eschenbach did a closer examination of Vardø and also found the same discontinuity around 1920, amounting to 0.73°C. When that artificial discontinuity is discounted, the temperature rise is only +0.12°C per century, a tiny result for a region that according to the models should have undergone rampant warming in the last century.”
    The Eschenbach-Figure is at: www.john-daly.com/stations/vardo2.gif , showing an increase from 1919 to 1939 !! (for comparison see here: www.arctic-heats-up.com/pdf/7_2.pdf )

    The key for the earlier Arctic warming is definitely Spitsbergen (discussed over seven chapters at www.arctic-heats-up.com ), while the 8th chapter asks: Can forces be identified that contributed to make the bold shift happen?

  • Oleg Pokrovsky

    Dear Colleagues,

    Thank you for discussion of my conclusions presented at recent IPY conference
    occurred in AARI (St.Petersburg, Russia).
    My vision of future climate is based on comprehensive analysis of climate index series analysis, which permits to reveal fundamental quasi-periodical oscillations in most components of climate system:
    -Solar activity
    -SST of ocean (AMO and PDO)
    -Surface air temperature
    – Surface irradiance (cloudiness)
    -Precipitations
    -Ice extent in Russian Arctic Seas
    I found that that those are in strong coherence when inter-annual climate noise was removed in each of them
    My motivation might be illustrated by a set of figures presented at recent Arctic Frontiers Conference (Tromso, Norway)
    www.arctic-frontiers.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=242&Itemid=155

    There are several papers in Russian journals.
    See also
    Pokrovsky O.M., 2009. The North Atlantic SST impact on the Ice Extent in the Kara and Barents Seas.-“Sea Technology”, Arlington, COMPASS Publ., v.50, N 9, p. 27-32.
    Pokrovsky O.M., 2009. Coherence between the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Surface Air Temperature trends in the continental regions adjoining the North Pacific.
    – CLIVAR Exchanges, Southhampton, UK, N 49, p.32-35.
    Pokrovsky O.M., 2008. Relationship between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the ice extent in Kara Sea.
    – CLIVAR Exchanges, N 46, p.8-9.

  • WSH

    Thanks for your contribution to our little blog Oleg. I enjoyed reading your pdf report – although much of your statistical presentation is beyond me – I gained an impression that there are various climate indices cycling away for several centuries – often without a pronounced trend.
    Then we see CRUTem3 with a huge trend – and we know a large proportion of their long term data is from cities.
    On another subject – I wondered if you knew of a paper in English which is at the back of what these researchers at the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis were saying.

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