18 thoughts on “Latest BoM delusions reported by the ABC”

  1. I haven’t had a close look at Broome, but the minimums have unfortunately been generally below average, and the maximums slightly above, but nowhwere near any record for the past few months.
    Unfortunately, because I hate the cold.

  2. Note the greater Sydney region on the max anomaly map would encompass Richmond – I will post next week on this but Richmond this winter had a max anomaly 0.6 – so the BoM map is surely wrong and exaggerated. But we know of many of these maps that are wrong.

    On the minimum anomaly map Richmond looks about right – the anomaly this winter was 0.4.

    Maybe readers can find other examples where the BoM max anomaly contouring is at odds with known stations.

  3. The ABC article is the usual fund of misleading statistics, omitted relevant facts, and contorted logic:

    “Nineteen of the last 20 winters have now had average maximum daily temperatures above the 1961 to 1990 average.”

    Note the cherry-picking of maximum temperatures, instead of both maxima and minima, or of average temperature.

    You can generate graphs of all these these temperatures here: www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Dtmin%26area%3Daus%26season%3D0608%26ave_yr%3D0. If you pick minimum temperatures for winter instead of maximum temperatures, you find there is no trend at all in these for the last 20 years, and that the warmest winter minimum was back in 1973!

    Also no mention of how much above the average the last 19 years of maxima were. Actually, from the relevant graph you can see that 15 of the 19 exceeded the average by less than 1 degree.

    And of course no discussion of whether the figures themselves are accurate, which from myriad examples we know is not the case.

    “Andrew King, climate extremes research fellow from the University of Melbourne, uses a range of computer climate models created all over the world to tease out the different factors causing extreme weather events.”

    Models=guesses. Tease out=find correlations, not causes.

    “His analysis of the factors behind this winter’s record heat showed that the influence of climate change increased the likelihood of this winter’s record warmth by at least sixty-fold.”

    There they go again with “climate change”! Meaning what exactly? Since it’s “the influence of climate change” they must presumably not mean climate change at all but rather the influence of greenhouse gases and the consequent change in radiative forcing. Using the term “climate change” to instead refer to only one possible cause of climate change conflates the two ideas and assumes what has to be proven.

    And ponder the statement that “climate change increased the likelihood of this winter’s record warmth by at least sixty-fold”? All it really means is that (a) his models guess that greenhouse gases would push the temperature up, say by a degree, and that (b) if you shifted the bell-curve of likely temperatures up (i.e. to the right) by that one degree, the previously infinitesimally small tail 1.9 degrees above the mean would shift to the visible but still unlikely value shown for 0.9 degrees above the mean.

    “Dr King said a very clear human influence could be seen in Australia’s winter.”

    Such a conclusion does not, of course, follow from (a) and (b). In fact, it’s the old logical fallacy of “affirming the consequent”: in this case, the false syllogism runs: greenhouse gases cause warming, there is warming, therefore the warming is caused by greenhouse gases.

    The whole thing is full of bias, unstated assumptions, and jumping to conclusions. A typical warming screed, in fact.

  4. That’s generally right for the Kimberley region Warwick, colder nights and warmer days. Had to use a heater for quite some time, as not used to temperatures much below 15C. But the days, they were fantastic. Very low humidity in the daytime, often in the single digits allowed the temperatures to be very comfortable and appreciated by tens of thousands of tourists.

  5. The BoM mean maximum temperature anomaly map for 2017 winter shows a large area in the NE part of SW Queensland to be within a large pink “blob” of +2C to +3C anomaly. Charleville is within this “blob” and based on the BoM monthly data for 2017 winter and BoM 75 year, winter climate data I come up with a mean maximum temperature anomaly of 2.94C.
    This appears to confirm that Charleville is correctly located within in the +2C to +3C pink, anomaly contour as shown.

  6. NSW max temps were recorded as +1.17C above average for Aug.
    Yet if one looks at the anomalies for individual stations, there appears to be only 30 sites that show above this average out of some 150 sites. Many sites in the Southern half of NSW were below average.
    I suppose with infilling and comparing with 1961-1990 averages, we can make the numbers ‘fess up to anything.

  7. When the BoM's basic methodology for the measurement of station daily maximum temperatures is flawed, as seems highly likely, what's the point in comparing these measured data with seasonal forecasts? 

    Clearly there are none so blind as our conflicted politicians, putting kick-backs and the opportunistic preservation of PC ideology before the bleeding obvious need for a truly independent root and branch audit of the BoM's handling of temperature measurement, adjustment, homogenisation and data storage/preservation.

    Where's Australia's Blue team, Red team approach, I guess until we get our own fair dinkum swamp drainer that just aint' gonna happen…

  8. I am sure that I heard on the ABC – probably TV – “hottest winter on record since records began in 1910” – Pre-1910 colonial records don’t count! Unreliable? Probably better than some recent AWS data.

  9. Thanks Ian – I have had a “Gateway Timeout” notice when trying to make maps and sometimes Firefox digs into cache.
    Maybe the NORKS are hacking the BoM looking for wind data in Northern Oz.

  10. In Perth after June, we had a generally cloudy and wet winter, with lower max and higher min temps.

    In Perth and probably most of Australia, cloud cover accounts for most of the temperature variability.

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