There have been misleading comments on TV news implying that BoM rain Outlooks predicted the heavy September rain in western Victoria that has caused flooding around Coleraine and Hamilton. This is not so as is shown on the September rain Outlook map below.
In the flooded zones the prediction was for 50-55% chance of exceeding the median rain.
The map today shows that in the first three weeks of September the western half of Victoria has averaged 200% of the usual rain for the whole month, with a blob near Mildura over 300%.
www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap/rainfall/percent/cmonth/colour/latest.vc.gif
I see the BoM is now at least putting up the old forecasts in an archive. Why don’t they do a proper analysis of their accuracy, and post this prominently? Could it be that the predictive power of their Outlooks is virtually zero?
If you want to see a failed Outlook Dave – checkout the max temp Outlook for Sept –
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/sco/archive/index.jsp?map=tmax&outlook=median&area=national&period=month1&year=2016&month=8&day=25
about 75-80% in shades or red.
Then compare with weekly max temp anomalies through this month – which show substantial green or neutral areas. You should be able to see maps for the weeks ending 6th, 13th and 20th Sep.
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=history%2Fnat%2F2016090720160913&step=2&map=maxanom&period=week&area=nat