I expect the new PM will get a great bounce in the polls – what an opportunity for an early election in the next few months. How many triggers are there for a double dissolution? What dates are critical?
I expect the new PM will get a great bounce in the polls – what an opportunity for an early election in the next few months. How many triggers are there for a double dissolution? What dates are critical?
Warwick, Turncoat may be that stupid (Goodwin Gretch affair) but the Nationals/CP/LNP will not let him do that. The result would be Greens getting back and a few more independents leading to more problems in the Senate.
Turncoat moved because he knew Canning would be won by the libs giving Abbot a boost.
There is at least 1 ‘trigger’ already in place, and it is up to the PM to call the election by advising the GG.
The only reason that Turnbull would want an early election is if he intended giving way to the UN at Paris. That means calling the election by mid October, and arousing suspicions in and of the Coalition making it a gamble. (If he was going to give way to the UN then extra Green senators wouldn’t worry him).
It is more likely that he would want to enjoy the office for a while, and let Shorten get more scrutiny. And let the ‘honeymoon’ for Di Natale disappear.
I notice this new site, I wonder who has assembled all this interesting history of Malcolm, his origins, nice timeline of his life and politics.
stopturnbull.com/
Wow Beachgirl, some interesting reading. Have never liked Turnbull but did not know how leftist he has been. Murphy, Whitlam and that crook Wran. Did not know about some of those other left lawyers and judges.
Would be interesting for a similar timeline on Julie Bishop.
Everyone should think twice about voting for anyone with a legal degree. So many are egotistical and incompetent.
I think the threat of a double dissolution might make most independent senators (other than Zenophon) wake up to the fact that they are unlikely to be re-elected and that they would be giving away 4 years of perks, an annual income far above what they are used to and the ability to grandstand. They would disappear into the obscurity from which they have come.
I doubt that they will obstruct too much legislation while they have this hanging over their heads.
A Double D would be unwise, but I wouldn’t put it past him. The coup was handled adroitly and they acted with speed, the man cannot stop grinning.
The question is whether he is prepared to risk a Coalition bust up over climate change?
He may imagine a large pool of Green Labor Independents supporting the Libs if they promise to take a large bucket of money to Paris.
No Double D but at the next election he will undoubtedly put his green left credentials on the table and win handsomely.
There has been a double dissolution trigger since June 2014 when the Senate for the second time rejected the Clean Energy Finance Corporation abolition bill, and since last month there has been a second trigger – a better one for Turnbull, a bill to beef up penalties for corrupt union leaders.
Will Turnbull use them to call an early election for both the House and Senate? He probably should, as he needs to stamp his authority on the Libs, most of whom don’t want or like him, but just feel they have a better chance of surviving at the next election with him as leader. Best time for him to go to the polls would be soon, say November, before the public works out (again) that he is arrogant, conceited, and a poor leader.
But precisely because of those traits, Turnbull may instead hang on for close to the full three year term (i.e. another year or so), imagining that he will just go from strength to strength as the public and the party realise how wonderful he is.
Like Tony Abbott before him – our new PM has said the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement ChAFTA is important for Australia to ratify. I read somewhere where the time limit on this is end this year. As of now Labor has not said they will pass the ChAFTA legislation in the senate. I do not know what influence new PM Turnbull might have with the Greens and minor senate players.
So IMHO a DD (or the threat of one) might be a mechanism the PM could use to ensure the ChAFTA goes into law.
The ChAFTA timetable is here: dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/chafta/fact-sheets/Pages/implementation-timeline.aspx
It would be a great issue for Turnbull to go to the polls on. All State Labor premiers support it, so do former Labor Prime Ministers, so do former heads of the union movement. Despite aggressive propaganda from the current crop of top unionists, repeated by Opposition leader Shorten, the majority of the public realise ChAFTA would be good for Australia, and that rejecting it would be a disaster for employment and for our international credibility as a place to invest.
Even so, ChAFTA is still in committee in the parliament, and it needs to be formally rejected by the Senate twice, with a three-month gap, before it can be used as a DD trigger. So it won’t be formally available until well into next year.
That does not mean that Turnbull could not already use it politically. Shorten has already hung himself out to dry on the subject, so it would be a key issue anyway if an election were called now.
I still wonder though if Turnbull’s hubris will keep him dithering around till it’s too late for him to win an election. Check his performance here – www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3242501/Malcolm-Turnbull-gives-television-interview-Prime-Minister-Today-s-Lisa-Wilkinson.html. Stuttering and stumbling, fluffing and faking, talking too much and coming across as an arrogant pill, head over heels in love with himself. He would be well advised to rush to the polls under any excuse, before the penny drops with the public.
This at Quadrant has it pretty fair –
Little to Mourn, Much to Fear
quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2015/09/little-mourn-much-fear/
A reader emailed to say he thought the Abbott – Turnbull switcheroo would turn out as profound a change as the 1975 dismissal. Just think about it.
I see Labor sound more and more as if they are in election mode –