The BoM rain Outlook for summer predicted only minor areas would enjoy above average rain-
yet average and above average decile rain fell over vast areas – over the majority of the area of Australia.
Why is the BoM allowed to waste our taxes publishing these useless Outlooks?
Agree Warwick, the first BOM chart shows a prediction of a chance of exceeding median rainfall of 45% from north of about Kempsey NSW through to about Maryborough Qld and in land to about St George Qld. They did not even get the second chart of actual rainfall right. I live within that area. The actual rainfall was very close to average in December and January with the February rainfall double the average. The total for the 3 months was 40% above average. Once the ground is saturated from normal rainfall an increase over the average can lead to local flooding and that is what happened from the Tweed area upto Gympie with little warning from BOM except for cyclone Marcia which cause very little rain in the area.
The BOM people would be better at forecasting if a) they looked out the window b) looked at their actual measurements over the past three months and c) looked at historical cycles in past records (including SOI and PDO). CO2 has no effect on weather or climate.
The only thing more useless than a model pretending to predict a complex, non-linear, chaotic system, is a model steeped in religious zeal pretending to do the same.
Put this one down for checking tomorrow evening. BOM predicting hot-to-record temps for SE Qld tomorrow:
www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/autumn-scorcher-on-the-way-for-southeast-queensland-20150304-13ulp8.html
Good find Anto – I see they claim Birdsville had 23 consecutive days above 40 degrees up to yesterday – not at Birdsville Airport where the 19th & 20th Feb were under 40 leaving only 12 consecutive days.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201502/html/IDCJDW4011.201502.shtml
Maybe the Police Station – – but hey it is the story that counts.
OK, looks like the daily maxs are in. Let’s see how the BOM went.
Forecast: Brisbane to top 36C. Looks like that was correct, with a top of 36.1C.
Forecast: Amberley 39C. Fail – top of 36.9C.
Forecast: Gold Coast 35C. Correct – top of 35.7C.
Forecast: Birdsville yesterday 43C. Correct – top of 43.4C.
Forecast: Longreach +40C next three days. Correct so far – 40.7C at Longreach today.
So, all in all, not too bad, except for the “record” forecast for the Ipswich area. Looking forward to a Brisbane Times headline tonight reading, “Hot, But No Record Temps in SE Qld – What Went Wrong?”
Just as a general observation, I will say that the BOM’s overall short-term forecasting of general weather conditions seems to have improved substantially with better satellite coverage and more powerful computer modelling, however there does seem to be a warm bias even in these forecasts. The number of failed “possibly hottest ever” forecasts I’ve seen in recent years are too numerous to be down to just random chance.
BOM is basically a mob ok idiots spending $400,000,000 of tax payers cash playing with computer games , where is the ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL LA NINO EVENT THEY HAVE BEEN PREDICTING FOR THE LAST 4 months?
They continue to alter their web site to hide their incompetence, academic fools in an unprecedented self delusional circus 🤡 .
Every second word is climate change. They could not pick their noses let alone what the weather is doing , better , Australians best ask the USA what is going to happen to Australia’s weather
BOM is basically a mob ok idiots spending $400,000,000 of tax payers cash playing with computer games , where is the ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL LA NINO EVENT THEY HAVE BEEN PREDICTING FOR THE LAST 4 months?
They continue to alter their web site to hide their incompetence, academic fools in an unprecedented self delusional circus 🤡 .
Every second word is climate change. They could not pick their noses let alone what the weather is doing , better , Australians best ask the USA what is going to happen to Australia’s weather