A major rain event starting in Alice Springs ~7th and running about a week destroyed the BoM dry prediction. I have not seen a reason quoted for that – did the jetstream wobble – for sure the moonsoon belt fired up to the south. I wonder how useful this rain Outlook was.
January rain Outlook
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As well as I can remember BOM predicted a 40% chance of average rainfall for SE Qld. I said a prediction such as that was no use because people wanted to know actual rainfall. I predicted 95-100% of average rainfall for January. I was a little out as the actual rainfall was 112% of average (over 120yrs). Half the rainfall occurred on one day. It is difficult to predict the actual rainfall on anyone day more than one day ahead. However, my prediction mainly from past records including SOI was better than BOM.
Data for weather is now mainly obtained from instruments located at airports. Take SE Qld there are international airports at Brisbane, Gold Coast and Toowoomba, there is a domestic airport at the Sunshine Coast-Maroochydore (which takes planes from NZ and is planed to go full scale international), and Hervey Bay-Maryborough. There is a RAAF airport at Amberley. There are controlled light aircraft fields in Brisbane, Caboolture, Caloundra and Gympie (there could be more in the area which I can not remember).
Airports have a known UHI effect due to the concrete and bitumen runways and tarmacs for parking. I have been up in a glider and know the effect of lift from convective air movement over the runway and near by roads. The UHI effect would be greater when the airport is close to build up areas such as Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. Most airports have industrial estates at the perimeter.
It occurred to me that rainfall recorded at an airport particularly light rain maybe lower than nearby rural areas due to UHI and the cleared area of the surrounds. Trees and thick vegetation appear to attack more rain.
Some past comparison to official weather stations in my area show the local airports record less rain. I will try and make more comparisons of daily rainfall but wonder if anyone else has the same experience. If it is a more general result that makes a mockery of BOM’s rainfall maps and forecasts.
The maps are contours of two different statistical measures and the comparison can’t be made between a prediction of the median ( most common) and the mean (sum of events divided by number of events). Anyway if you look at the area around Alice Springs it predicted that the rainfall would exceed the most common rainfall for the month with a 40% probability and it tends to reflect that in the mean.