Three month temperature Outlook forecasts by Australian Bureau of Meteorology still hopelessly wrong

I know its gets boring exposing this BoM rubbish but it has to be done in the hope the BoM might cease publishing this expensive computer driven twaddle every month.

Note that the Maximum Temperature Outlook only has a very small area near Shark Bay and the north Pilbara coast that was predicted to be cooler than Important note, the medicine should viagra free delivery be taken by men’s only once in a day. In case of viagra cheap usa view for more, the viagra plays the same role as the herbal medicine treatment, especially in male infertility caused by prostatitis. With augmented amount of blood supplied to the penile organ viagra 20mg in an appropriate and insufficient manner. viagra online india Deca is highly reputed for its good gains and bad side effects, none more noteworthy than this one. average – and of course it was not. For the Minimum Temperature Outlook every square metre of Australia was predicted to have nights warmer than average. How can the BoM go on churning out these temperature Outlooks where the predicted warm and cool areas are so way out of balance?
Maybe a sign of a lack of balance somewhere.

2 thoughts on “Three month temperature Outlook forecasts by Australian Bureau of Meteorology still hopelessly wrong”

  1. Warwick
    Flawed forecasting and maybe flawed data homogenisation.
    Just finished looking at the NSW summary for October, 2014. NSW apparently has had its hottest max mean temp for October on record at +4.0C (anomaly) above average. See here at:
    www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/nsw/summary.shtml
    I checked the 155 NSW stations and found the mean for the 155 stations listed in the summary was +2.6C. If you calculate the mean for the 20 odd ACORN AWS Airport stations, from which the average official mean is calculated, the average mean rises to +2.9C.

    There were only 22 individual stations out of the 155 which registered a +4.0C max mean anomaly.
    Only 3 climatic districts averaged over 4.0C – Western (Lower Darling) D47, Western (Southwest Plains) D49 and Riverina (East) D74.

    So why the +4.0C anomaly? It must come from the shading which BoM carry out which is seen here at:
    www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=maxanom&period=month&area=ns

    Admittedly the districts which averaged +4.0C cover a large area of NSW. However, if you look at the climate map, there seems to be some areas which the shading has managed to cover which do not warrant the high anomaly.

    One wonders if the BoM has a flawed shading formula which does not really reflect the actual temperatures.
    Maybe my reasoning/calculations are wrong.

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