I have been collecting total votes twice each day from late October. From before the major revision to online totals ~28 Oct by “The Science Museum” – see their statement here about spurious voting.
Several interesting points come out of my daily numbers, first there have now been two other major adjustments to total votes cast.
The first about 13th Nov saw an extra ~1500 votes for the IN vote (pro IPCC) and ~500 for the OUT vote, then again yesterday 30th Nov., we see 1000 extra IN votes and about 600 OUT votes.
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The next graph is daily incremental votes to end Nov.
I can see no explanation on “The Science Museum” webpages for these sudden voting adjustments. Note my dates/times are Australian and my graphics start after the first big adjustment that “The Science Museum” explains on their web page. Prior to that large adjustment circa 28th October, I recorded 5470 In votes and 7097 OUT votes.
Added 8pm 1st Dec; just noticed that from this mornings totals, of 6477 IN & 8547 OUT, 1028 IN votes and 395 OUT votes have been added (not in above graphs). At this rate the IN’s might well catch up to the OUT’s by Copenhagen.
Not too strange see here. PZ specializes in poll crashing.
The medical profession has confirmed that a poison contained in a United Nations variant of fudge was the cause of a debilitating brain disease among scientists, now termed Climate Wars Syndrome (CWS).
The disease was secretly suspected by sceptical scientists to have spread rapaciously among the scientific community for two decades and to have taken a terrible grip over the reasoning powers of many. Victims can be identified by their green and alarmist complexion. Other side effects include an irrational hatred of mankind and a Tourette syndrome-like verbal abuse of anyone who uses fossil fuels. Threats of violence may occur. The world first learned of these sensational developments from the Internet on Friday November 20th 2009. The story broke that both the underlying cause of CWS and an effective treatment had been discovered by the due diligence of one man working at the UK’s Climate Research Unit (CRU). A vast community of Internet surfers soon memorialised these profound events by naming them, ‘Climategate.’
From leaked documents we understand that the catalyst for this epoch change in science occurred when a climatologist and self-taught computer programmer known only as ‘Harry’ was sat at his laboratory computer chewing on some fudge. Only after three long years working on this problem and in a sudden eureka moment, did it finally dawn on him. In Harry’s hands was the cause of brain fog mystery.
“F**k! It’s the fudge! It’s serial!” he cried.
Inadvertently, Harry has become the hero the public associate with solving one of the great mysteries of modern science. Since those findings have appeared on the Internet the world has quickly accepted that it was the UN’s foul fudge that caused scientists to suffer this dreadful disease.
Meanwhile, epidemiologists and clinicians have been quick to identify the hallucinagenic properties of the offending fudge to further unravel the mystery. Incredibly, the fudge has been found to contain a psychotropic substance that acts primarily upon the central nervous system where it alters brain function, resulting in changes in perception, mood, consciousness and behavior leading patients to feel delusions of grandeur and a sense of spiritual purpose in their lives.
It appears lone-wolf Harry, wiling away his time in the CRU laboratory subliminally faced the truth and by a process of ‘cognitive dissonance,’ shocked himself out of the effects of the psychotropic intoxicant, a drug now known to cause the hallucinogenic appearance of a mythical beast known as, ‘Man-Bear-Pig’ (MBP). Other experts who have replicated Harry’s experiments confirm the efficacy of the cognitive dissonance reasoning process as a cure. Apparently, most recovering ‘addicts’ (for this fudge-eating was clearly an addiction) soon notice a change starting with improvements in the appearance of their eyes which lose their tainted green colouration.
Other convalescing climatologists, that body of scientists identified as the worst fudge sufferers, are reporting the same side effects as Harry. Symptoms include anxiety, guilt, shame, anger, embarrassment, stress, and other negative emotional states that torment the patient. Epidemiologists have coined the name ’Climate War Syndrome’ (CWS) to describe the fudge-induced malady. Both ‘Climategate’ and ’Climate War Syndrome’ (CWS) have fast entered common usage giving a new handle on what was one of the great mysteries of our time.
Of course, like any serious disease, there will always be patients who won’t respond well to treatment. Those worst cases permeated with the deepest shade of green are believed to be James Hansen, Michael ‘upside down’ Mann and Phil Jones whom, its feared, may all need to be quarantined in isolation for several years.
It looks as though “The Science Museum” has abandoned their poll, no vote totals are visible now. They have two online statements, first About the poll says,
[In the PROVE IT! gallery, 3408 people chose to count in and 626 chose to count out. On the website, 2650 users counted in and 7612 counted out.]
Then if you click on “statement” below, you see a page editorialising the failure of the public to be concerned about “climate change”
Adding up the final figures given by “The Science Museum” for voting at the Museum plus voting online, you get grand totals of;
IN vote (pro IPCC) = 6058
OUT vote (sceptics)= 8238
pretty small sample for the population of the UK.
My last running totals 8pm on the 1st December were 7505 and 8942 respectively, which indicates that TSM had to take 1447 spurious votes from the IN total and 704 spurious votes from the out total.
It is interesting that they took the poll down because I thought there were signs the IN vote was catching up.
Good work Warwick. I think the vote was supposed to end in December – I guess it was designed to give a boost to Copenhagen/Nohopenhagen, but backfired!
I too kept track of poll values, but with a program that checked every 30 minutes, and have the data and commentary at wermenh.com/proveit.html.
The Nov 12 anomaly is weirder than your graph shows. The surges at the end come from the WattUpWithThat article at wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/29/uk-prove-it-poll-still-taking-votes/ and soon after that a counter from PZ Myers at scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/11/a_poll_to_advocate_a_strong_re.php .
The final numbers were adjusted to discard more duplicate votes, so they don’t match the numbers in your graph.
You had a neat monitoring operation going Ric – great to know the high n mighty have to assume there will be somebody monitoring.
My graphs were posted a day before the poll stopped. My comment #3 wrapped the numbers up.
I am still puzzled by odd patterns in the daily increments, such as the OUTs declining steadily from late Oct to 12th Nov, a pattern quite at odds to the INS. Then the difference between before and after the spike in 13 Nov. It was noteworthy too that OUT increased slightly from 25th which could have been due Climategate.
Thanks. I’ve tried not to worry too much about the pattern shifts, I spent far too much time following all this anyway! It would be nice if the Museum were inclined to report on that (it’s the most interesting and informative aspect of the poll!) We might get something from the FOIA requests, but I’m not expecting the Museum to be more than minimally accomodating. Certainly not if Director Rapley offers any direction.