A fail for Australian Bureau of Meteorology temperature Outlooks for Autumn 2014

Interesting with all the BoM publicity about Autumn and May breaking warm records – the BoM Outlooks for Autumn turned out so dud.
Trying out animations – first maxtemp Outlook plus resulting real world anomaly.

Then mintemp Outlook plus resulting real world anomaly – I see the National Night-time Hotspot is making a cameo near the SW of NT. Love the integrity of that BoM data.

Make temperature anomaly maps here

2 thoughts on “A fail for Australian Bureau of Meteorology temperature Outlooks for Autumn 2014”

  1. I wish the BoM would stop abusing statistics. Those % probabilities are nothing of the sort. They are like the IPCC probabilities, merely the opinion of persons unknown, and run through the models which are wholely deterministic.

  2. As for the fail on the seasonal forecast. Well guess the forecast for parts of the east and VIC were ok
    But really, does anyone follow those anymore?

    DECILES for may 2014
    picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/TEMPERATURE2014#6020240345400778562

    Australia has been in a band of Global High pressure anomaly from at least Dec 2013 and into May 2014
    picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/MSLP#6020248373150846402

    Also of note is the strong sub -tropical jet stream and the VERY weak zonal sub polar Jetstream which we need to send the cooler air up on the mainland.
    Here’s hoping for some change to this synoptic pattern soon

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