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BBC article explaining UK cold – blames warming stratosphere but can not mention j-e-t-s-t-r-e-a-m

January 13th, 2013 by Warwick Hughes

Saw this gem headlined – Sudden stratospheric warming responsible for UK’s icy blast – which contrives to blame cold wintry conditions on warming without mentioning (in 475 words), that the temperature fluctuations in the stratosphere are associated with migration of the jetstream.
But if you listen to the video explanation by Peter Gibb you will see he does refer to the polar jet.
BBC readers in a hurry who just scan the headline and move on without taking time to watch the video could take away a message that would please the IPCC.

Posted in Atmospheric science | 2 Comments »

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Sydney temperature forecast 12 Jan 2013 – another amazing failure

January 13th, 2013 by Warwick Hughes

Sydney was forecast to have 39 degrees but enjoyed a day around 31 degrees. HT Tim Blair. A huge 8 degrees forecast error. Several other centres had unusual large errors too which are on this map.

Last month I noticed the BoM tended to over-egg forecast warmth.
On 27 Nov the BoM warned of a widespread, severe heatwave – turned out a short heatwave
BoM exaggerated Brisbane heatwave – and it was only a “one day wonder”
and from early December
Massive failure in BoM forecast temperatures Sydney and SE regions
Just to repeat what I have said earlier – I do not expect exact forecast accuracy – we know that is not possible – but if the BoM was not biased then errors would fall equally warm and cool.

Posted in BoM Australia, Surface Record | 10 Comments »