#5 BoM Spring Outlooks – rain and temperature – more hopelessly wrong models

Here we go again – another month and the BoM Outlooks seem to be getting worse – if that is possible.

Starting with rain – how do they get SW WA so EXACTLY WRONG ??

They have a win with the predicted wet in SE Qld-NE NSW – I will not quibble over the tiny green patch near Glen Innes which really should be in darker blue.

The predicted dry in Victoria & Tasmania turned out wet or average.

The predicted dry in Nth Qld turned out really wet.

Vast areas of the continent predicted to be so dry or average turned out REALLY REALLY WET. All in all – a waste of taxpayers money.
BoM rain Outlook spring 2010

Maximum temperatures were correctly predicted in that same SE Qld-NE NSW zone where the rain Outlook had a win.

The West WA warmth was not predicted – a few points for the little win around Broome – then the predicted warmth in SA-Vic-Tas turned out to be non-existent – like the huge predicted hot patch across north Australia. Large areas of the continent centre were predicted average and warm but turned out anomalously cool to varying degrees – (added 4th Dec) – I would award a few points for the E-W trough shape in the Outlook which is partly copied by the two cool patches. IMHO – overall a pretty miserable and useless failure.

BoM max temperature Outlook failure spring 2010

The Outlook for minimum temperatures (nights) suggest there must be a serious lack of reality in the BoM – how could you go with a model predicting such a hot result ? – in the face of months of failures. I think AGW has got to their collective judgment. Did nobody raise a hand to say that the real Australia was unlikely to have this extent and degree of hot nights ?

The wins in WA, SE Qld-E NSW, Top End and far nth Qld are outweighed by the negatives over the remaining large areas. I like the way the largest area with a 75% prediction to be above average – turned out to approximate the largest area of cool anomaly. (added 4th Dec) – note how in the minimum Outlook the contours have a broadly domed shape with the red hot peaks in the NT and Nth WA – while the actual weather results are exactly opposite with the major cool area representing a “topographic low” in the contouring. Another example of the BoM being EXACTLY wrong.

BoM minimum temperature Outlook failure spring 2010

Can I remind readers of the peer reviewed paper from 2005;
“Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal rainfall forecasts in Australia, 1997-2005
AL Vizard, GA Anderson and DJ Buckley”

Then there is a 2008 paper looking at correlations with SOI