Recently the BoM started including monthly Outlook maps – not sure why but there you go.
The December rain Outlook did not turn out so flash either – a few earlier months were better.
But January has little hope already at day 10 and still raining over vast areas. For larger maps –
The BBC is carrying – South Australia fires: Hopes rise of halting Adelaide blaze – I thought the area was getting its second day with some rain to help firefighters.
At the exact same time the ABC is reporting the BoM – Weather bureau warns South Australia could experience heaviest rainfall in 30 years –
I was away all yesterday in the boondocks and heard on the car radio news of the Brisbane storms with hail and damage. Brisbane smashed by storm super cell: Premier calls in Army to help with clean-up –
I just post this map of rain up to 9am on the 28th (recorded up to 4am) to float the idea again that the urban heat island can attract rain. The mechanism could be due to the man made increased albedo contrasts accentuating the formation of convective storm cells. I am interested to see what readers think. I realize there is a greater concentration of rain gauges in SE Queensland.
I have had previous posts on this subject but not on Brisbane. In February I posted – Did the Adelaide urban heat island (UHI) increase rain there last night? and there is a link there to an example from Melbourne. I am sure I have read of examples from books and published papers.
Funny that this dam often overflows – 2013 overflow events – yet the nearby Perth water supply dams are near useless – I wonder why? Surely it could not be such a simple thing as managing catchment vegetation sensibly? In 2012 I wrote to the WA Minister on this issue – my letter and his reply is here.
Just a bunch of too-green-climate-change-saluting-doomsters – Wentworth Group followers – pushers for more expensive water – pushers for high environmental flows – did they ever speak out against anti-damism? – shut them down. We need public servants working to bring water to the people, agriculture and industry at the best cost. How radical is that?
Like resources – water is a State issue anyway – not Federal. The NWC is just another ill considered Howard Govt initiative that seemed like a good idea at the time. While they are at it – the Murray Darling Basin Authority should be pared back to the barest essentials or done away with – another useless water quango.
This eye catching prediction encapsulated in this doomster chart from their full page press advert 7 July 2007 –
can be contrasted with actual rainfall since then. Plenty of rainfall to have avoided wasting $Billions on seawater desalination.
Update 39 years of Perth dam catchment rain index 1975-2013 – see links there to my letter to WA Minister and his reply.
The strange media statement by Queensland Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry – The Honourable John McVeigh – fits right into the rich tradition going back many years of strange statements on the subject of rain and drought made by Australian politicians and indeed water authorities who should know better. Some examples –
In 2008 – New South Wales Premier Rees says Tamworth was in drought but BoM maps say no drought near Tamworth
In 2007 – W.A. Govt propaganda takes water supply “post rain”
In 2007 – West Australian Premier talks utter nonsense about rainfall
BTW – note Queensland rain percentages of average for February 2014 – then ask yourself how The Honourable John McVeigh could sign off on his media release linked above.
In the BBC article – Australia’s Queensland hit by record drought – they say “Queensland received little rain in February, which is normally the wettest month of the year, local officials say.”
Mad – here is BoM map showing percentage of average rain that fell in February. Make various BoM maps yourself.
Here is media release from Queensland Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry The Honourable John McVeigh Friday, 7th March, 2014 – “The largest area of Queensland ever drought declared”
Not a reliable guide to the rain that fell over Queensland last month. I commented a few days ago on this issue.
ABARES is the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences – they are having their annual conference on 4 – 5 March.
The ABC has just posted this story – Drought takes its toll on the soil –
Featuring this map which compares the upper layer soil moisture from January 2014 with readings for the past 100 years.
Why not update the map following good rains in February in western Queensland and parts of New South Wales. Surely with the combined talents of ABARES – CSIRO – BoM they could have done that.
Would have changed their entire story – making the map compare late Feb 2014 soil moisture to the past 100 years would have resulted in smaller areas of scary brown patches.
Just think of the combined salaries.
The ABC page – Interactive: 100 years of drought in Australia – should open in a separate window.
Here is a chart of Australian rain anomalies 1900-2013 – it is obvious that the much ballyhooed Millenium Drought was a pussy of a drought Australia wide compared to the obviously dry years from 1910 right up to 1970.
Here is the ABC “drought bar” –
And you can see it must have been very subjectively constructed to show the Millenium Drought in such a bad light. I fully realize it is possible to argue about how bad some years were in various regions – there might be bad starts to the crop season. But the ABC map is of all Australia – so I am putting up a chart of all Australian rain to compare.