Category Archives: Jones et al

Canberra Airport has coldest ever 14 day run of August minimum temperatures

Checking Canberra Airport minimums for 14 days 2 August to 15 August 2014 and they average -4.55°C.

I think this is a record cold run of 14 cold minimums in August – since 1939 that is. The next coldest 14 day spell I found was -4.25°C from 4th to 17th August 1994.
Has anybody noticed this months cold reported? There must be other minimum records from this month.

3rd August 2014 saw record cold mornings in Hay, Hillston and Lake Victoria – in New South Wales that is

While roughing it in a motel in the wilds of central NSW I heard the ABC weather lady say that Adelaide was enjoying a record cold August morning – a record since 1888 I think.
Yesterday was a pretty hard frost here so I have quickly checked a few records and it looks to me as though Hay, Hillston and Lake Victoria have had record cold mornings. Can anybody add to this list ? Or have additional info re Adelaide – South Australian cold.
It will be easier to check when the Sunday contoured map of minimum anomalies comes available.
Hay – yesterday -3.8 prev coldest -2.5 on 2 Aug 1997
Hillston yesterday -4.6 prev cold -3.3 on 7 Aug 1963
Lake Victoria yesterday -2.5 prev cold -1.4 on 16 Aug 1967
I just checked Google which finds no news on this – what would we hear if it was a record hot day?

NOAA claim that May and June 2014 were hottest evah for our globe

The Ch9 TV weather lady for Sydney mentioned this last night – and I see this article in USAToday – A double scorcher: June joins May with heat record
Of course NOAA is quoting weather station data assembled by the GHCN latest effort where most sites are in urban heat islands and then they impose zillions of blithering warming adjustments to increase the warming.
I have been asked for a chart –

So let’s see what the satellites say for the lower troposphere – two systems – RSS and UAH.
First the month of May

Now the month of June

Bad luck NOAA – both satellite systems – RSS and UAH agree there were previous hotter Mays and Junes and even the May-June 2014 combo does not fly in 2010 and 1998.
I know what data I would have more confidence in.
I will be interested to hear what other global groups say about 2014 May-June – CRU – GISS – CAMS -

How long does it take the Australian BoM to fix a simple 10°C error in their AWAP temperature anomaly maps?

On the 5th I posted – Southwest Queensland heat wave 2 July 2014 – pointing out the 10 degree error for the Bedourie max on 2 July.
After a couple more days the 30 was fixed to a 20 here.
But I see this morning 14th July after another week passes – that the 10 degree error is still in the AWAP maps.
How can the BoM which has been in existence for over a century – not have routine operating procedures in place to ensure that these tiny tasks are promptly done?
Would a 10 degree cold error have been repaired quicker?
The original error was only spotted because it was a huge standout anomaly.
What about errors that are more subtle and harder to spot?
What confidence can we have in the routine BoM AWAP temperature anomaly maps?

Southwest Queensland heat wave 2nd July 2014

I noticed this aberration in BoM max anomaly maps –

on checking I see that Bedourie on 2 July recorded 19° at 3pm. Yet they have 30° recorded here.
So we are expected to believe that the temperature rocketed 11 degrees quicktime

It just amazes me that such an obvious outlier can get through BoM processes.
And I like the way the contouring maths generates the next layer up red anomaly all on its own.
There are not that many Qld stations reporting on this page – that given BoM computing power and the presumed importance of filtering out errors – a staffer could easily tick through the Qld list in 5 or 10 minutes each day eyeballing for obvious errors.

NIWA reports on record New Zealand warmth for June 2014

This article from Stuff reporting NIWA-talk mentions “A persistent lack of southerlies had a profound impact on the monthly temperatures.”
Or you could say northerly winds brought a flow of warm tropical air over the New Zealand region during June – as shown by this BoM map.

The NZ Herald says – The winter of our content: Warmest-ever June – which mentions June was between 1.8C and 1.9C above normal just beating 2003 which was +1.8C – When global datsets update we can check what they record for June. The NIWA NZ series is heavily adjusted to a warmer trend – explained by Bob Dedekind.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has a long history of ignoring faults in HadCRU global temperature series – temperature data that birthed “global warming”

In 1986 the Jones et al team published papers for both hemispheres compiling temperature data from weather stations into long term trends.
Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Variations: 1851-1984
P.D. Jones, S.C.B. Raper, P.M. Kelly, and T.M.L. Wigley, R.S. Bradley and H.F. Diaz; Journal of Applied Meteorology: Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 161-179.
and
Southern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Variations: 1851-1984
P.D. Jones, S.C.B. Raper, and T.M.L. Wigley;
Journal of Applied Meteorology: Vol. 25, No. 9, pp. 1213-1230.
The journal papers are about what Jones et al want readers to see. The Northern Hemisphere TR022 and Southern Hemisphere TR027 books published by the US Dept of Energy (long term funders of Professor Jones) tell you more about what was done.
Links to free downloads of above journal papers and DoE books below.
Jones PD , Raper SCB, Cherry BSG, Goodess CM, Wigley TML, Santer B, Kelly PM, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, (1985) TR022 A Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Data Set for the Northern Hemisphere. Office of Energy Research , Carbon Dioxide Research Division, US Department of Energy. Under Contract No. DE-ACO2-79EV10098 – available as pdf files
and – Jones PD , Raper SCB, Cherry BSG, Goodess CM, Wigley TML, (1986c) TR027 A Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Data Set for the Southern Hemisphere. Office of Energy Research , Carbon Dioxide Research Division, US Department of Energy. Under Contract No. DE-ACO2-79EV10098 – available as html version.

The BoM did not comment to the journal despite Jones et al use of all Australian urban heat island affected State Capitals. In fact there were no comments on either journal paper published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology – an amazing fact considering this huge research project touched on all the worlds met services. Maybe comments were sent in to the editor but never made it to print – somebody might know.
Then in 1988 a critique of the papers by Dr Fred B Wood appeared in an Elsevier journal. Wood, F.B. 1988, “Comment: On the need for Validation of the Jones et al. Temperature Trends with respect to Urban Warming”, Climatic Change 12, 297-312.
There was a reply. Wigley, T.M.L. and Jones, P.D. 1988; “Do large-area-average temperature series have an urban warming bias ?”, Climatic Change 12, 314-318.
Dr Fred B Wood was from the Office of Technology Assessment, United States Congress and no previous publication of his was referenced in his Comment – although he did gratefully acknowledge “…useful suggestions and/or critiques of earlier drafts…” from 16 named people and several anonymous reviewers. So it makes for a fascinating story that nobody with a meteorology or climate background commented on the Jones et al papers which touched on data from every “weather service” on planet earth and nobody stood up as a co-author with Dr Fred Wood.
In 1990 the BoM produced a draft paper which was circulated to the IPCC – M.J. Coughlan, R. Tapp and W.R. Kininmonth; 1990, “Trends in Australian Temperature Records” (scroll down). Coughlan, et al 1990 studied urban/rural pairs at Capital cities and concluded re urbanization affected temperature trends – “These estimates are greater than those of the trends this century, reported by Jones et al. (1989), in annual mean Southern Hemisphere air temperature…”
I assume the BoM draft sunk without trace at the IPCC.
In 1991 I examined the Australian segment of the Jones et al compilation resulting in a draft paper – The Australian Record on “Global Warming” (TARGW) – Tasman Institute 1991 review of the Australian component of temperature records used in the 1986 Jones et al Southern Hemisphere paper, Executive Summary online scroll down page.
TARGW was circulated to the BoM who were generally critical but agreed –
[1] that capital cities data should be viewed “with suspicion” – and
[2] also that “long term stations (were) overlooked in the global dataset”.
More of TARGW is also online in a 2009 blog post – Jones et al 1986 methodical insertion of warming bias.
As an example of BoM criticism that I find inconsistent they said “Cunnamulla should not be considered a neighbouring station of Charleville”. OK I can see they are 180km apart but over flat terrain – it is the network we have, there is no other, the smaller centre shows less warming and of course Cunnamulla was rejected by Jones et al and Charleville trucated at 1951.
Where the BoM is inconsistent is I have never seen that they have criticised Jones et al who often compare Australian stations in excess of 1000km apart – see examples in table.

Remembering the Jones et al 1986 temperature station comparisons were often over huge distances – ridiculous distances sometimes over 1,000km

I have just been pulled up by George Bailley for comparing Ceduna temperatures to Fowlers Bay (western South Australia) which he said were 118km apart.
This comment from GB was at my earlier post – The BoM ACORN SAT dataset disaster rolls on – fatal minimum>maximum errors can not be repaired until “second half of 2014″
Yet when Professor PD Jones and his team birthed “global warming” with their two hemispheric papers in 1986 they often compared stations over 1000km apart – see table below with Australian examples. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology made no comment about the Jones et al 1986 paper quoting these ridiculous station comparisons.

Data in the table above is from this book – html version – Jones PD , Raper SCB, Cherry BSG, Goodess CM, Wigley TML, (1986c) TR027 A Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Data Set for the Southern Hemisphere. Office of Energy Research , Carbon Dioxide Research Division, US Department of Energy. Under Contract No. DE-ACO2-79EV10098 –
When GB has written to Professor Jones pointing out the huge distances between his station comparisons – and tried to convince Professor Jones that his comparisons should not exceed 100km – then I might take more note of comments by GB.
In 1988 Dr Fred B Wood published a useful critique of Jones et al 1986 and he addressed this distance issue – which Wigley & Jones termed a “red herring”.

Climate Council (Australia) says Autumn 2014 is abnormal

Remember the Climate Council was birthed by ex staffers from the Climate Commission which was disbanded by the Australian LNP Government elected Sept 2013. Climate Council Seasonal Update: Abnormal Autumn – Looks to me as if their cherry picked warm period 8 to 26 May is borrowed from the BoM – Special Climate Statement 49 – an exceptionally prolonged autumn warm spell over much of Australia
Here is a time series chart of Australian Autumn mean temperature anomalies. Not sure what is abnormal. Remember these time series charts are built from ACORN SAT data.

Click to play animation of nine previous warm autumns.

Sydney is the only prominent site I can see that had an all time record warm Autumn. Birdsville qualifies too. Any other candidates?