Category Archives: Jones et al

Australian Bureau of Meteorology claims that NSW has had its hottest October ever – does the data really back up their claim ?

As reader Ian George has pointed out the BoM in their monthly report for New South Wales say – New South Wales in October 2014: Warmest October on record
Following Ian’s lead I have averaged all the District mean monthly max’s and added them to this map of BoM rain districts – I have shaded orange districts that topped a 4 degree anomaly.

This next map shows the NSW maximum anomaly for October.

As Ian says there are serious differences between the maps – for example – here are many places within the RED +4 degree anomaly contour which did not register a 4 degree anomaly for October according to the district stations listed by the BoM.
Wanaaring, Bourke, Nyngan, Moree, Walgett, Lightning Ridge, Collarenebri, Narrabri, Gunnedah Resource Centre was 4.1 but Gunnedah Airport only 2.3 (UHI in Gunnedah??), Coonabarabran, Inverell, Forbes, Parkes, Deniliquin, Corowa, Tocumwal, Griffith, Lake Cargelligo,
On the other hand I noticed Katoomba had a 4 degree anomaly but is way outside the RED contour.
On balance it looks like Ian is realistic to wonder – “One wonders if the BoM has a flawed shading formula which does not really reflect the actual temperatures.”
This could be a work in progress.

New peer reviewed paper finds that New Zealand warms at only 0.28°C per century compared to Govt NIWA trend of 0.91.

Good to see this new paper – A Reanalysis of Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Trends in New Zealand – by C. R. de Freitas & M. O. Dedekind & B. E. Brill.
Also great to see them use the Fig 3 twin diagram ex NASA GISS – that I have been drawing attention to for years as absolutely vital.
Climate Conversation Group has a blog yesterday – Paper adds interesting perspective on NZ temperature trend

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology needs to be questioned about their temperature adjustments – under conditions such as at a Royal Commission or at Senate Estimates

The latest article by Ken Stewart – Rutherglen: Spot the Outlier – builds on the momentum started by Dr Jennifer Marohasy who was a key to articles in The Australian on 23-24 August which questioned the BoM ACORN SAT high warming adjusted temperature series. And of course Jo Nova has been active on this issue for a long time.
Top BoM people need to be questioned about ACORN SAT under conditions where there is no escape – then truth might emerge into the light.

It is time to get Australian Bureau of Meteorology station histories out of archives – we need to see how good BoM metadata is

The best reference I know to BoM station diaries is the 45 page summary by Simon Torok for his 1996 PhD thesis – “The development of a high quality historical temperature data base for Australia”
This can be downloaded in full in several parts at –
minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/39449

However the Appendix A1 containing the 45 page summary of all station diaries he accessed can be downloaded as an 8MB pdf at – p38/46 Rutherglen station histories – I note their is no entry for Amberley and the entry for Rutherglen is brief.

You get the picture. Western world economic future is being influenced by this stuff.
I saw these diaries in the BoM library at Lonsdale Street, Melbourne in the early 1990’s – a series of maybe foolscap ledgers. I assumed they were put into Commonwealth archives – National Archives of Australia.
If anybody can locate them – please let me know.

Renmark Aero has coldest ever 7 day run of August minimum temperatures – that is in eastern South Australia

Checking Renmark Aero minimums for 7 days 2 August to 8 August 2014 and they average -3.97°C.

Renmark has two stations with daily max & min T available – 24016 Renmark with data from 1957 to 2001 which had no seven day spell in August even breaking zero. Then Renmark Aero 24048 with data from 1995.
The previous coldest 7 day spell I found was -2.2°C in Renmark Aero from 1st to 7th August 1999.
So this August smashed the record somewhat. There must be many more cold minimum records around SE Australia to be hunted out this month.

Canberra Airport has coldest ever 14 day run of August minimum temperatures

Checking Canberra Airport minimums for 14 days 2 August to 15 August 2014 and they average -4.55°C.

I think this is a record cold run of 14 cold minimums in August – since 1939 that is. The next coldest 14 day spell I found was -4.25°C from 4th to 17th August 1994.
Has anybody noticed this months cold reported? There must be other minimum records from this month.

3rd August 2014 saw record cold mornings in Hay, Hillston and Lake Victoria – in New South Wales that is

While roughing it in a motel in the wilds of central NSW I heard the ABC weather lady say that Adelaide was enjoying a record cold August morning – a record since 1888 I think.
Yesterday was a pretty hard frost here so I have quickly checked a few records and it looks to me as though Hay, Hillston and Lake Victoria have had record cold mornings. Can anybody add to this list ? Or have additional info re Adelaide – South Australian cold.
It will be easier to check when the Sunday contoured map of minimum anomalies comes available.
Hay – yesterday -3.8 prev coldest -2.5 on 2 Aug 1997
Hillston yesterday -4.6 prev cold -3.3 on 7 Aug 1963
Lake Victoria yesterday -2.5 prev cold -1.4 on 16 Aug 1967
I just checked Google which finds no news on this – what would we hear if it was a record hot day?

NOAA claim that May and June 2014 were hottest evah for our globe

The Ch9 TV weather lady for Sydney mentioned this last night – and I see this article in USAToday – A double scorcher: June joins May with heat record
Of course NOAA is quoting weather station data assembled by the GHCN latest effort where most sites are in urban heat islands and then they impose zillions of blithering warming adjustments to increase the warming.
I have been asked for a chart –

So let’s see what the satellites say for the lower troposphere – two systems – RSS and UAH.
First the month of May

Now the month of June

Bad luck NOAA – both satellite systems – RSS and UAH agree there were previous hotter Mays and Junes and even the May-June 2014 combo does not fly in 2010 and 1998.
I know what data I would have more confidence in.
I will be interested to hear what other global groups say about 2014 May-June – CRU – GISS – CAMS –

How long does it take the Australian BoM to fix a simple 10°C error in their AWAP temperature anomaly maps?

On the 5th I posted – Southwest Queensland heat wave 2 July 2014 – pointing out the 10 degree error for the Bedourie max on 2 July.
After a couple more days the 30 was fixed to a 20 here.
But I see this morning 14th July after another week passes – that the 10 degree error is still in the AWAP maps.
How can the BoM which has been in existence for over a century – not have routine operating procedures in place to ensure that these tiny tasks are promptly done?
Would a 10 degree cold error have been repaired quicker?
The original error was only spotted because it was a huge standout anomaly.
What about errors that are more subtle and harder to spot?
What confidence can we have in the routine BoM AWAP temperature anomaly maps?