Image via Wikipedia
I suppose it is what we could expect with the BoM coming under the wing of Minister Penny Wong, the Minister for Climate Change and Water.
It has been obvious for over a decade that CSIRO has been more gung-ho than the BoM about pushing an agenda underpinned by ridiculous “climate change” modeling.
Now a CSIRO staffer has taken over the BoM. Why not go the whole hog, make the BoM a Division of CSIRO? Tidier.
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://i0.wp.com/img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?w=474)
NASA’s Spaceweather.com has a small article on March 22 200 [thanks to Bob Foster for the heads-up]
DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: Where have all the sunspots gone? As of yesterday, March 21st, the sun has been blank on 85% of the days of 2009. If this rate of spotlessness continues through the end of the year, 2009 will match 1913 as the blankest year of the past century. A flurry of new-cycle sunspots in Oct. 2008 prompted some observers to declare that solar minimum was ending, but since then the calm has returned. We are still in the pits of a deep solar minimum.
Also, Spotless Sun: Blankest Year of the Space Age 09.30.2008
Solar Cycle Prediction By Dr David Hathaway (Updated 2009/03/04) Still talks about the minimum being in August 2008 ?? Although the text file seems to indicate November 2008.
Well informed statistical view of Timo Niroma
Dr Janssens solar expert from Belgium
My solar pages, first comment on divergent predictions for cycle 23/24 was December 2006
Increasingly, we are hearing in the media that the January-February south east Australian heatwave and disastrous bushfires in Victoria that have killed over 200 people are the result of climate change or global warming.
This map shows the 10 degree grid cell that the temperature data graphs below is collected from.
Here is what the local region component of global temperature data speaks to us about January 2009 vs long term trends for South East Australia. These graphics of monthly temperature anomalies from land stations demonstrate that FROM 1880 THERE IS NO WARMING IN SOUTH EAST AUSTRALIA. February data is not yet in but can be added later.
The first graphic is from the UK Met Office – Hadley Centre, their latest CRUTEM3 global land data which has evolved from the datsets of P.D. Jones et al of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of Norwich. These data show a very slight and statistically insignificant warming of 0.03 degrees from 1880 to Jan 2009.
Note the pre 1880 data is riddled with gaps.
The second graphic is generated by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) lead by the well known greenhouse warming proponent, Dr. James Hansen.
GISS monthly anomalies shows that SE Australia between 140-150E and 30-40S has a miniscule cooling trend over the 1549 months from Jan 1880 to Jan 2009 which would not be statistically significant from zero.
Both sets of data are made available through the The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute who have a web site KNMI Climate Explorer, where it is possible to download a huge range of global climate data.
First let us be clear that “global warming” is measured by monthly mean temperature anomalies, so if a signature can not be seen in that context, then the case for a link between heatwaves – bushfires – global warming, is just arm-waving speculation.
Mean temperature = the average of night and day.
Blaming the 2009 Victorian bushfires on climate change or global warming is likely to become one of those “self evident truths” that our Governments and green media love so much.
It is interesting to remember what the “official” data show and that is that although there have been periods of both warming and cooling over south east Australia for 129 years, these cancel out and there is no overall trend.
Images of bushfire smoke plumes from the 128km Melbourne Airport BoM weather radar for the 7th February 2009. Vastly improved timeline of the afternoon Prosolution gel for men does not leave behind a sticky residue vardenafil 20mg tab or a foul odour, contrary to many other creams and gels. You don’t have to worry about your discount viagra blood pressure is constantly checked up and under control. On the other hand, this is called canadian viagra sales and they are making the market in pharmacies. The twelve-step programme provides treatment purchase viagra online and a objective. compared to that from the “black” National Synoptic Radar Mosiac which had many gaps for Melbourne.
These weather radar images can be downloaded at this website.
We have all been horrified by the terrible loss of life in the fires north of Melbourne in the afternoon of 7th February. My purpose in this post is to try and develop an accurate timeline of the day. I note that the Victorian Government will hold a Royal Commission, the terms for which I have not yet seen. I also note the Victorian Premier and others blaming “global warming” for the fires and I suspect that his Govt policy of not sufficiently applying hazard reduction burns in cool seasons will be defended tooth and nail by green proponents.
These green policies also stem from Commonwealth bureaucracies; and it could be that there is a need for a Federal inquiry too.
Note on 2nd March. This section is outdated now and a more complete and higher resolution set of radar images are at. More complete sequence of BoM weather radar images Melbourne bushfires 7th Feb 2009
The Melborne images in the National Radar Mosiac were so incomplete I have removed them.
NASA has a pair of satellites that twice a day view our region and on their excellent Earth Observatory web pages you can view larger images of the fires on the 7th at about 3.50pm, see small image below. From the left, Kilmore-Wandong, Kinglake, then Marysville or Murrindindi Mill as it can be termed. An earlier image that day at about 11.30am detected no fire signatures in our critical zone north of Melbourne. Fires were noted elsewhere in the State and Interstate.
On the 8th the NASA images are very much cloud affected.
However they publish a very interesting false colour image from about 3.35pm on the 9th showing burnt outlines and remnant hotspots. These remote sensed fire signatures show distinctly separate burnt outlines for Kilmore and Kinglake and clearly separate sources for Kinglake and Marysville, see below. Within some of the burnt areas there are some interesting green areas that appear to have been less burnt. More information on these would be welcome.
Finally, NASA has this very interesting map and animation showing monthly intensity of global fires over this decade. Play the animation and see for yourself how the areas covered by our fires are small compared to those in other parts of the world.
Contributed by David Archibald
There are now 30 years of satellite data on global temperature.
The graph above shows the University of Alabama Huntsville Microwave Sounding Unit (UAH MSU) results for the period 1978 to 2008.
Examination of the record shows a change in character in 2001. Prior to that year, global temperatures tended to rise in a narrow band for a couple of years then have a relatively rapid fall. After 2001, temperatures tended to peak in Jan and then have a much wider annual range than previously.
This is shown in the following graph:
The above graph overlays the month to month results for the period 2002 to 2008, a total of seven years.
For the last seven years, global temperature has tended to fall 0.3 of a degree between January and May, and then rise again to December. Departures from this are caused by El Nino and La Nina events.
Just as the 2007 El Nino added 0.2° to the January 2007 result, the 2008 La Nina reduced temperatures in the first half of 2008 by 0.3°. The following figure shows the strength of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which drives the formation of El Nino and La Nina events.
Note how the SOI prior to end 2006 is mainly mildly negative (El Nino) but is noisy with sudden excursions into positive mode which presage cooling, then from mid 2007 the positive (La Nina) phase dominates causing tropical cooling and leads to the global cool period in early-mid 2008. The combination of the annual pattern of temperature change and the current La Nina enables a short term forecast of the UAH MSU result to be made.
The combination of a 0.3° response to the current La Nina and the usual 0.3° decline from January to May will result in a 0.6° decline to May 2009 to a result of -0.4° (0.4° below the long term average).
David Archibald
12th January, 2009
Dr Fred Singer’s, SEPP Science Editorial (copied below) #1-09 (1/3/09) in “The Week That Was” (TWTW), address’s the issue of the difference between University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) [Christy and Norris, 2006] and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) (Mears and Wentz 2005) MSU lower troposphere (LT) temperature data[1979-2007].
Dr Singer refers to the Heartland Institute publication which he edited, “Nature Not Human Activity Rules the Climate”, where Fig’s 9a and 9b seen below, indicate the effect of the hypothetical correction that is required in the RSS data. In a nutshell, the red squares should plot further to the right to agree closer with the blue squares.
The RSS MSU_LT anomalies show a greater warming trend 1979-2008 than do UAH and the majority wisdom around the pro-IPCC Blogosphere is that RSS are correct and UAH wrong.There is also published peer-reviewed evidence that a cooling correction to RSS is required. Randall and Herman Jan 2008 say in their abstract:
“..Diurnal correction signatures still exist in the RSS LT time series and are likely affecting the long-term trend with a warm bias.”
There is more in their paper which I do not have.
The Douglass and Christy paper (Accepted by Energy and Environment Aug 2008) “Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth” has an Appendix A. “Comparison of MSU and RSS” where the authors address the issue and conclude that there is a positive jump of 0.136 degrees K in RSS at about 1993, when two satellites briefly overlapped.
I agree with Dr Singer that this is indeed a significant correction that is required in RSS LT MSU.
Continue reading Should RSS correct their lower troposphere satellite data ?
THESE days, it can be hard to imagine how Melbourne ever earned a reputation as the gloomy, rain-filled capital of the south. But, growing up in the 1970s, my memories are full of muddy ovals, local creeks in flood and catching tadpoles in puddles that lasted for months on end. How things have changed.Since 1996, each successive calendar year has brought the city below-average rainfall. With 299 millimetres recorded so far this year, and with just three months to go, it seems virtually certain that this year will become the 12th in a row that has failed to get to the average of 650 millimetres. September 2008 was the driest on record in Melbourne, and the outlook for the remainder of the year suggests that below-average rainfall will continue.So why has it been so dry? The drought started in late 1996, and the subsequent El Nino years of 1997, 2002 and 2006 have each been particularly dry. Ordinarily, these events would have been interspersed with wetter years, but since 1996 the intervening periods have only approached average at best, with the deepening drought particularly evident in our reservoirs and stream-flows.
My main criticism of the article is that the BoM relies on Melbourne CBD rain data to back up their regional conclusions regarding “climate change” and drought, while the rainfall history is in fact affected by the growing urban heat island.
Melbourne Regional Office 86071 (MRO), a weather station in Melbourne’s CBD is
(a) excluded from their own High Quality (HQ) dataset and
(b) shows a negative trend of 90mm (a stunning 13% of mean annual rain) over the last 153 years when compared to the nearest HQ station, Yan Yean 35 km NNW.
So much of what they say in “Our hot, dry future”, is slanted by this amount, no wonder I am critical of much that the BoM publishes.
Melbourne Regional Office weather station in Melbourne’s CBD which has rain data from 1855, is a site that has undergone enormous changes in its surroundings as the city has been built and expanded over the centuries, resulting in an ever-increasing urban heat island.
The above illustration is from a 1997 BoM paper.
High rise developments have increasingly affected wind and changing pollution levels over the decades could also cause variations in rain formation. Up to post WWII coal burning would have been common leading to much worse pollution than modern times, (note visibility data) and air quality data show improvements over say the last 40 years.
These are just a quick sketch of some reasons why weather data from a large and expanding urban heat island is a most unsuitable source from which to draw conclusions about, climate change, regional changes and long term rain trends.
Finally, the article contains another BoM failed prediction, saying in the second paragraph, “..the outlook for the remainder of the year suggests that below-average rainfall will continue.” Wrong BoM, the 2 month rainfall total for November-December for Melbourne Regional Office was 130.8mm compared to the long term mean of 118.7.
Jennifer Marohasy featured 5 articles on her blog examining the subject during October 2008; the first titled How Melbourne’s Climate Has Changed: A reply to Dr David Jones (Part 1) was posted on 14 October and parts 2 to 5 were later in the month.
You can go to the Quadrant front page and read Tim’s dissection of Garnaut.
The contradictions of the Garnaut Report
Tim Curtin, January-February 2008The Report makes many dire projections for the future, including the claim that without drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, chiefly carbon dioxide, there will by 2100 be major declines in gross domestic product (GDP) across the globe … The Report offers no evidence for such effects having already become apparent despite the warming temperatures experienced globally and in Australia since 1976. On the contrary, that whole period has seen the fastest economic growth ever recorded across almost the whole globe, and Australia is no exception.
If his main article should go offline, I have archived it here.
Continue reading Tim Curtin shafts the Garnaut Report
Reading recently that the Queensland Premier Anna Bligh had pushed back for five years any action on building the Traveston Crossing Dam I thought the years end was a good time to post some catchment rainfall history.
Claims by the usual suspects about “worst drought ever”, and variations on this theme are shown to be rubbish. Just a normal, usual drought by the look of it.
A five year postponement sounds like the death knell to me.
