The Bureau of Meteorology through the media is prone to quote the 46.4 degrees temperature recorded in central Melbourne on that day – also spruiked as all time Melbourne hot day. Although what exact relevance the temperature in the middle of the huge and growing Melbourne urban heat island (UHI) has to conditions on the fire grounds – I do not know.
It is worth remembering that the maximum temperature at Kilmore Gap on Black Saturday was 42.7 – that is the nearest recording available to where a power line failure ignited the Kilmore fire – which amidst Govt Fire Authorities confusion – birthed the Black Saturday disaster.
Continue reading At a time of bushfires in the news – a reminder about facts of Black Saturday 7 Feb 2009 temperatures
All posts by Warwick Hughes
Question about large fixed wing air tankers, water bombers in Australia now – Dunalley fire timeline
I am asking about air tankers on the scale of the P-3 Orion, or DC-10 or Boeing 747, people may know of others, does anybody know the whereabouts of any of these aircraft ? Who controls their use ? Thinking of the disastrous Dunalley fire SE of Hobart Friday 4 Jan 13. ABC map of Dunalley fire.
Can people please post any links to dated photos of fixed wing air tankers working this month – thanks.
Added after posting: The answer here seems to be – there are none. Great photo of BAe-146 air tanker dropping fire retardant in California. So with all our wealth in Australia we go into a summer without any medium & large air tankers. I wonder who decided this ?
Back to the Dunalley fire – here is the Dunalley fire smoke plume on weather radar from midday until 5pm – judging from the first smoke signal ignition was before 1pm – note local time is in the lower left where it says (Updated on Server) UTC is GMT I think.
Table below shows Dunalley weather from BoM site in town. Temperature is first column – the next 4 cols are not vital then the last 3 cols are wind direction, wind speed and wind gusts in km hour.
Dunalley Timeline – work in progress
[1] Ignition likely near ~midday as radar shows first smoke pixel at 12.54pm. Most fires do not make enough smoke to show a signal on radar – and wind was fairly quiet so fire was probably not making sufficient smoke to be detected by radar for an hour or so until 1pm.
[2] Temperatures at Dunalley at time of ignition were only 30 to 35 degrees – see above screen save from BoM page. The time prior to 2pm was the window of opportunity for an aerial attack to suppress this fire.
[3] Note in the table how wind and temperature increased sharply between 1.51 and 1.57pm which fits exactly the time radar shows the smoke signal rapidly increasing. From that time on the fire would have quickly become more difficult to suppress.
[4] The passage of the fire in Dunalley is shown by the 54.9 and 49.9 temperatures at 4.22 & 4.23pm.
Question I am interested in is – “what were authorities doing from midday till 2pm when the fire in relatively quiet winds should have been easiest to put out”
New Year snow in South Canterbury, mid-summer New Zealand
I am sure it is not unknown – Cold snap brings snow to Sth Canterbury.
Perspective from the NZ Herald in Auckland, I saw earlier about a bridge out on the West Coast – it has been known to rain there. Does anybody have an online source showing if the rain event was unusual for this time of year ?
Henbury carbon farming project methodology not approved by Canberra – who contributed $9mill in the first place
This shambles just gets worse – “Red Centre carbon farming blueprint knocked back”
and announced over the New Year hols by the Govt compliant ABC. Will we ever know the truth.
I have three earlier notes on the subject.
Qantas makes announcements about buying carbon credits
Then –
A month is a long time in carbon farming – QANTAS with egg on their face
and in November
Commonwealth public servant ‘decision makers’ slaving away for $20 per hour
Hydrocarbons discovered in the Horsehead Nebula – in our galaxy
Astronomers at the Max Planck Institute report their stunning discovery which adds support to those proponents of an Abiotic origin for hydrocarbons.
The researchers were surprised by the unexpectedly high levels of hydrocarbons. “The nebula contains 200 times more hydrocarbons than the total amount of water on Earth!”, said IRAM-astronomer Viviana Guzman.
“We observe the operation of a natural refinery of petroleum of gigantic size”, concludes Jérôme Pety.
Another problem for the IPCC.
Australian scientists discover that groundwater on the Australian mainland can seep into the ocean
I thought this marvellous anti-development beatup too good not to share – “CSG water may pose risk to coast: experts”
May we ask – and before 2002 they did not know that groundwater can seep to the sea ?
Indian Ocean heatwave off Western Australian coast – beatup continues now correlated with shark attacks
I first noticed these claims when the ABC Catalyst TV show (IPCC TV) ran “Taking Our Temperature” in November. I enjoyed the calm statements in the “Catalyst” NARRATION such as – “In fact, it was part of the biggest heatwave to hit Australia’s waters ever. It began just north of Ningaloo Reef, hitting it heartbreakingly with the force of a pot of boiling oil.”
Oh OK, only as hot as boiling oil then !! We will leave Catalyst there.
A few days ago the media has been running with – “WA ocean heatwave linked to shark attacks” – but the most scientific article I can find online is this UWA page from last July – “Unprecedented Indian Ocean heatwave creates melting pot”.
They say – “In the summer of 2010/11, the region experienced the highest seawater temperatures in at least 140 years”. Now taking the region off Perth as 30 to 35 South and 114 to 116 East, just the coastal strip and checking out the HadSST1 SST data at KNMI Climate Explorer; we find that the summer (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 1999-2000 was warmer (1.33 deg) than 2010-2011 (1.27 deg). So, claim shot down or at the very least marginal. The Reynolds SST data confirms that summer of 1999-2000 was warmer than 2010-2011 in that coastal strip off Perth.
Some of free get viagra the conditions for ED include diabetes or high blood pressure. Well, since it is particularly affecting the system of reproduction and even ordering viagra from canada digestion, therefore, you may imagine that it will simply damage the patients’ life. After viagra soft 50mg taking the drug the effect starts in an hour and remains 4 to 6 hours. High blood pressure, diabetes, depression, and stress, all of which are essential to weight loss. To get a little perspective we can look at this global map of SST anomalies and ask what is so special about the warm SST anomalies off WA compared to the warm patch off Angola ?
Would the Angola media be running “ocean heatwave” stories ? Is their marine flora & fauna less worthy than ours ? And how about the large warm anomalies in the SE Pacific and South Atlantic ? – are teams of highly paid marine scientists writing papers about the effects of those large areas warmer ocean on the zillions of micro-organisms to be found there ? Or are they less worthy than marine life near the Perth coast.
Note the cold anomalies in north European seas and all around the USA in their winter 2010-11, some of which are relatively colder than the Perth anomalies are warm. Do cold patches of ocean have less significance for affecting marine life than warm patches ?
Classic IPCC compliant West Antarctica “warming faster” story – destroyed by satellite data
Just saw this at ABC online Christmas eve – too busy to respond – I see Anthony Watts with it too.
This neat map and story is at the OurAmazingPlanet.com site.
Unfortunately for the authors of the Nature paper – NASA satellite lower troposphere temperature data by UAH team Spencer & Christy shows cooling over the 1979-2012 period for the 60 degree sector covering West Antarctica with Byrd Station (near 80S – 119W) central.
The trend for the entire zone between 75 & 85 south is also cooling.
Enviroment Canada predicted a “Green Christmas” – now what is happening ?
A week or so ago my eye was caught by this headline – “Most Canadians should expect a green Christmas: Environment Canada” – and I thought – well they should know, they are the Canadian Weather Office.
Now I see their forecast for 25 December 2012 looks like this –
and I am wondering if there is some parallel universe re temperature units in Canada. Perhaps readers can let us know how much green is around where “most Candians” live as we tick down to Christmas.
CGPS based geodetic measurements at ten Pacific Ocean tide gauges show five are sinking, four steady and one rising 2001-2008
Just came across this under-reported gem from Geoscience Australia, I note their disclaimer – “…the length of the time series is too short for reliable vertical station velocity estimation….”
As the years roll on these data should become more reliable guides as to the changes in tide gauge heights. But what they show so far is worth reporting.
Cook Islands – steady
Fiji – steady
Kiribati – down
Manus Islands (PNG) – down
Micronesia – down
Nauru – down
Samoa – steady
Tonga – up
Tuvalu – steady
Vanuatu – down
Marshall Islands – data too short