Category Archives: Atmospheric science

Just saw this headline – The 2014 El Nino becomes ‘a real enigma’

You have to love the GreenLeft media – the complete and utter failure of seven months of warmists predicting and beating up the possibility of a Super El Nino in 2014 transmogrifies into – “a real enigma”
There is no enigma – simply that your climate models are mostly shite.

If strong winds are behind the pause in global warming – would weaker winds cause global warming?

According to the ABC – a recent article by Professor Matthew England University of New South Wales – has claimed – “…stronger than normal winds in the Pacific are the explanation for a pause in global warming…”
I just thought I would open this for discussion here.
Does anybody know of long term land based wind observations in the tropical Pacific.

Another example of a possible drift in early TOMS satellite ozone data

I have looked at the ozone hole issue a few times over the years – and have had a suspicion that various factors affect stratospheric ozone levels apart from destruction wrought by gases released from old fridges and freezers.
In the previous post the graphic indicates that ozone and temperature could be more congruent in the early years 1978-1985.
Out of curiosity I compared TOMS monthly data ex KNMI to the Arosa ozone series from Switzerland.

Lo and behold – TOMS numbers look too large in the early years too.
The KNMI TOMS series is a blend with more recent data from the European Space Agency SCIAMACHY ozone data. TOMS having ended in 2007.
R.I.P. TOMS: NASA Ozone Instrument Laid to Rest After Three Decades

Antarctic ozone hole expected to heal about 2070 – too late for many

I saw several articles around the media – such as this from the ABC – Ozone hole healing a slow process

and thought it worth while posting the satellite ozone and temperature data – some close fits there at times.
So the recent improvement is a false dawn.

Difference between UAH and RSS satellite lower troposphere T anomalies has a distinct step change 2004-2005 over the USA 48 States – not as marked as Australia

This surprised me – not only the little warming step of 0.2°C in UAH but the difference gets markedly noisier after 2005.

In Australian data the warming step is much more marked and looks a year or so later.

Linking the origins of Typhoon Haiyan to warm sea surface temperature anomalies is far from convincing

The Sydney Morning Herald ran this article – Typhoon Haiyan influenced by climate change, scientists say – there must be hundreds of articles written along the same general drift. In this case a map of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is presented by the SMH for the period 3rd to 5th Nov.

Note the location of the warm anomaly is from 160-165 East and between 5 South & 5 North.
Here is a map of Typhoon tracks including the Haiyan path extended as far east to its origins as I can find.

Note that Haiyan originated in the grid box 155-160 East and 5-10 North. A fair distance from the grid box where the weak SST anomalies highlighted in the SMH article were supposed to cause the Typhoon to form.
Note also that the storm moved westwards to near 145 East before the windspeeds attracted attention and the Typhoon was reported.
At this NOAA site you can make SST anomaly maps for 3 or 4 day periods and personally I am not seeing SST anomalies that stand out as being exceptional in late October – early November.
I have been looking for an animation of the jet streams in that region, no luck so far. I thought this page was interesting discussing the Madden-Julian oscillation.

Australian Broadcasting Corporation discovers that global warming has stopped

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Pacific cooling explains slowdown in global warming: study

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Funeral Notice from the Canberra Times 7 August 2013