Rely on wind power – decommission your reliable coal fired generators – who could be surprised at a blackout. Nemwatch. As I write the AEMO Electricity Price and Demand www site shows none of their usual charts & data.
The weekend has seen a welter of speculation about the closure of Hazelwood neatly timed with a report by the Grattan Institute titled – Keeping the lights on. Victoria has the following coal fired generators – Hazelwood 1600MW –
Loy Yang A 2180MW – Loy Yang B 1000MW – Yallourn W 1450MW
Total 6230MW = possible max 149,520MWhrs per day
If Hazelwood shuts the total coal fired generating capacity reduces to 4630MW making for a possible max 111,120MWhrs per day if all units operated 24/7.
This chart of Vic daily generation by source (omits solar) shows the current dominance of coal – for large chart. I have marked with the pink X where a horizontal line would be drawn at 111,530MWhrs per day. So just below that would mark 111,120MWhrs per day. Without some way of replacing the reliable 1600MW capacity of Hazelwood – it seems amazing that the media run with this fairy-story.
A large percentage of Australia was predicted to have hotter than normal days this month –
as Sep counts down keep a watch on how different areas are trending.
Using the easy to access AWN monthly data it looks as though the following areas will need a late Sep heatwave to avoid the Outlook failing.
For example Tasmania, Adelaide, Ceduna, Alice Springs, Perth, Kalgoorlie region, Giles region, Kimberley, Cape York.
You can also compare with weekly max temp anomalies through this month – which show substantial green or neutral areas. You should be able to see maps for the weeks ending 6th, 13th and 20th Sep.
Here are the 4 weekly max anomaly maps starting 6th Sep 16
13th Sep 16
20th Sep 16
27th Sep 16
There have been misleading comments on TV news implying that BoM rain Outlooks predicted the heavy September rain in western Victoria that has caused flooding around Coleraine and Hamilton. This is not so as is shown on the September rain Outlook map below.
In the flooded zones the prediction was for 50-55% chance of exceeding the median rain.
It is obvious that BoM and Water Corporation rain stations are low down in catchments near the various dams –
convenient near roads and easy for staff to monitor. Click on Select Using Map – Large areas of the catchments are not monitored by BoM rainfall stations. In 1997 this contour map showed annual average rain for SW WA – the rain numbers would have been heavily influenced by pre 1975 higher level rainfall. It would be helpful if the WA Govt or BoM could redo the map using post-1975 rainfall – which is vastly more relevant to water supply issues than pining after pre-1975 numbers.
The WA Dept of Food & Agriculture have a www site for their own network of weather stations – which in many cases also report to the BoM pages – for example the daily rain maps.
Last week I noticed that the DAFWA station Glen Eagle near the Albany Highway between the Canning and Wungong catchments has recorded the stunning total of 1280mm for the year to date.
Perhaps it is at a higher altitude – will try and find out. GE only commenced in August 2015 – I assume DAFWA checks the calibration of their instruments.
Here is my table of catchment stations with 2016 rain totals updated through August.
The zeros & blanks need urgent attention from the BoM and some monthly totals from Water Corp need examination.
The WA Dept of Water has a large network of stations in the catchments but most seem to be discontinued. Here is a map of their stations – Set Site Category to Meteorological.
I checked a string along the Brookton Highway and none was current – it is time consuming to check. Who knows what useful data they may have. We need all data public to audit and produce a better record of catchment rain.
Readers have mentioned rain in their areas and I have heard of road closures in the bush.
Added 14 Sep: The map compares Year To Date (YTD) rain with the Annual Mean.
Could not make this up. “Please note the rainfall instruments located at Victoria Dam and Mundaring Weir are being serviced and are not currently recording rainfall. We are working to address this and resume measurement as soon as possible.” Still no reply to any emails to WA Govt on this issue. They must release all their daily rain data so various sources can be compared. On 2nd August I posted – Perth dams rain data is in need of an audit. On 2nd May I posted – West Australian Govt Water Corporation fails to record March 2016 rain at several dams.
My account is in the sixth comment.