I am curious what readers think is a possible way forward – and what they think will actually happen.
The resignation of Benelong MP John Alexander wipes out the slender majority enjoyed by the Turnbull Govt. So how Turnbull will navigate the last two sitting weeks of 2017 without losing a key vote has been made a bigger problem. It is interesting that it took a freelance lawyer to precipitate this crisis by pointing out obvious facts to the then Senator Ludlum. What were our top legal minds doing all these years? Closing a blind eye to the effect of Sect 44 of the Constitution?
I doubt there is any chance of a referendum passing to amend Sect 44. I note too that when it was written Canada and New Zealand were all part of the British Empire and were not thought of as foreigners – Sect 44 should have been amended decades ago.
I note too the Coalition Govt elected Sep 2013 was always a lame duck in that they could never get Liberal legislation through the Senate. They only ever passed legislation compliant with Labor/Greens/liberals.
When Turnbull just scraped back in July 2016 with a minute majority in the lower house the lame duck became lame in both legs. Now here we are and nobody will want a Christmas election.
I checked gas and electricity wholesale prices data for 2017 and the claim in the AFR Monday – South Australia’s power now cheaper than coal-fired states – Ross Garnaut –
Any notion that this is due to some triumph of wind power fails to examine the dominant driver of SA electricity which is gas. The main sources of dispatchable electricity for SA are the Adelaide gas fired power stations. Then there are the interconnectors drawing on Vic coal fired power.
The three large States which are all dominated by coal fired power are all seeing reduced wholesale prices in 2017 as the Feds and Prime Minister attack high power prices.
While checking end of October rainfall numbers at Perth water supply dams – I looked in at 2.55am on 31st Oct and I saved this table with data as at 30 Oct. Interesting that as at end October – Canning, Mundaring, Serpentine Pipehead, South Dandalup and Wungong Dams all recorded over their annual rainfall with two months still to go – and there had been 86GL of inflows for the year. Churchmans Brook and Victoria Dams were way down on their rainfall – funny that Churchmans Brook is the only one of the seven sites to record to 4 decimal places? But back to the real world.
Golly I thought – all this rain must be causing smiles at WaterCorporation as they calculate the value to WA taxpayers of all that free rain falling from the sky. I imagined articles in The West Australian mentioning all this free water.
Later at 5.51pm on 31st Oct the numbers for that day were posted – and the numbers were little changed from the 30th – see Tables below.
I checked again at 6.04pm on 1st Nov and the data for 31st was still posted but there had been a couple of changes see Tables below. Inflows jumped to 89.3 GL – maybe a cloudburst somewhere.
Looking closer I saw the numbers for Victoria Dam going haywire see tables below.
Checking on 3rd Nov the crazy numbers for Victoria Dam had moved left as per Tables below copied off the 4 screens I saved. Quick comments on numbers marked with red X. The 670.0306mm is suspect because it is the only # to 4 dec places. The 576mm is sus because it is way lower than all others. The others for Victoria Dam are sus because they record multi-metres of rainfall that never happened.
Checking today the Table has updated to 8th Nov and numbers are exactly as per 3rd Nov.
The rain chart for Victoria Dam indicates water that could meet Perth supply needs without desalination.
So nobody at WaterCorporation can be watching – it must be that nobody at WaterCorporation cares in the slightest about rainfall.
There are two temperature series for Cape Bruny on the southern tip of Tasmania. CAPE BRUNY LIGHTHOUSE 94010 and it seems that an AWS was commenced in 2002 CAPE BRUNY 94198. The BoM site map shows the screen and AWS are ~18m apart.
I downloaded the max and min monthly data from CDO online and for the years of overlap 2002 to 2016 the CAPE BRUNY 94198 annual max is 0.45° warmer on average than CAPE BRUNY LIGHTHOUSE 94010. Furthermore the AWS was warmer than Lighthouse in every year.
For the same period the CAPE BRUNY 94198 annual min is 0.16° cooler on average than CAPE BRUNY LIGHTHOUSE 94010. Furthermore the AWS was cooler than Lighthouse in 15 of the 19 years, the readings were the same for 2008 and 2012, 2013, 2014. An interesting case of BoM AWS reading on an annual mean temperature basis (how global warming is measured), consistently 0.29° C higher than Stevenson screen readings only 18 metres away. Yet the BoM maintain their AWS are calibrated to be equivalent to liquid in glass thermometers.
But the BoM fails to say that outside the Hobart urban heat island (UHI) record warmth is harder to find.
I checked the following stations around the Hobart region – first the mean monthly max – only Tasman Island agreed with Hobart but the site has only operated from 2002.
then the mean monthly min gives a similar result.
So the BoM should have told the ABC that although central Hobart had a record warm October – few other sites in the district confirmed that so on balance you would assume that the UHI effect has been quietly ramping up warmth in Hobart data for a ~century.
Could have done better – miniscule areas with above average rain predicted but it looks as if about half of the misgoverned nation enjoyed over average rain. And they get Tasmania exactly wrong.
October max(daytime) temperatures were forecast to be high in most of the coastal rim and cool in the centre extending to the SW. Reality was that pattern was nothing like that with a fail along the coastal half of Qld and many central failed areas. I wonder who benefits from these Outlooks – anybody out there hangs out for them?
October min(night) temperatures were forecast to be a bit cooler than the days with a similar shape. Reality was the peak hot nights were nowhere near where they were predicted but there were some small wins in the cool areas. Again I wonder who benefits from these Outlooks.
Lets check the BoM 3 Month Outlooks – first rain – OK I think it shows not one square centimetre of Australia was due for above average rain. But reality was that vast areas of Australia had above average rain. Monster fail.
Now Max (daytime) temperature – I think it shows not one square centimetre of Australia was due for average or below average temperatures. But reality was that large areas of Australia from Carnarvon-Southern Vic- Tasmania and FNQ coast experienced near average or very mildly warm temperatures . And nowhere in the rest of Australia did the scale of temperature anomalies reach the extreme level of the predictions. Fail.
Now Min (night) temperatures. Not one square centimetre of Australia was due for average or below average night temperatures. Yet in the real world large areas were either anomalously cool or only very mildy warm. Big fail here.
Seal found in Auckland suburban backyard – seal hitches a ride – South Australian lower lakes – Gold Coast
OT re climate. With this release of papers that might cast new light on some of the mysteries of our time – I thought a blog was worthwhile for readers to add comments around any new “facts” – claims – surprises – to emerge for them. For my part despite reading various books on the assassination over decades plus viewing films & videos – I have never heard of a “bullet hole” in the limo windscreen and ditto never heard the view that Ruby had been a Communist Party member – I thought he had been a Chicago mob foot soldier in his early years. More to add later.
Credit where due – PM Turnbull is having a win with falling gas prices – Larger chart. Chart from 2012
but it seems a secret. I started warning of exploding energy prices on 6 June 2016 – did that pan out. Can update through Oct when data available. Top Link. I should have added for some that despite the Abbott/Turnbull Govts being lame ducks – by that I mean unable to get legislation through the Senate unless it has a GreenLabor flavour – the Feds have existing powers over exports. So a whisper to the gas majors about using the “export powers” and all of a sudden you have their undivided attention.
A very good “STUFF” Editorial I missed a year ago.
I often comment on NZ weather and climate issues but getting hold of basic data and map presentations as can be easily found for Australia at the BoM www site – is time consuming and near impossible for NZ. As STUFF says “We believe public weather data should be just that – public.” Amen to that.
In terms of normal weather forecasting NZ could probably get rid of much of their duplicated structure (MetService – NIWA) and use the COLA maps www feed from New York.