Talk on YouTube – No Certain Doom: On the Accuracy of Projected Global Average Surface Air Temperatures
Patrick Frank, PhD presents at the 34th Annual DDP meeting, July 10, 2016, Omaha, Nebraska. Dr. Frank, a chemist at the Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource (SLAC) at Stanford University, has authored 68 peer-reviewed publications.
Chris Gillham in Perth has been monitoring mean daily temperatures at Perth BoM sites and says Perth Airport 9021 is a shoo-in to have the coldest September mean since opening in 1944. Perth Metro 9225 in Mount Lawley has only been open from Jan 1994 replaced Perth Regional Office 9034 which commenced 1897 and underwent various moves before ending up in East Perth. Progress with temperature updates can be checked at AWN or the BoM.
Chris has a page discussing the history of various Perth weather stations since 1897. I will update as the final numbers are available and hope to include other Perth region sites such as Pearce – Jandakot – Medina etc It is amazing we can have a month like this in the teeth of the vast Perth urban heat island.
Rely on wind power – decommission your reliable coal fired generators – who could be surprised at a blackout. Nemwatch. As I write the AEMO Electricity Price and Demand www site shows none of their usual charts & data.
The weekend has seen a welter of speculation about the closure of Hazelwood neatly timed with a report by the Grattan Institute titled – Keeping the lights on. Victoria has the following coal fired generators – Hazelwood 1600MW –
Loy Yang A 2180MW – Loy Yang B 1000MW – Yallourn W 1450MW
Total 6230MW = possible max 149,520MWhrs per day
If Hazelwood shuts the total coal fired generating capacity reduces to 4630MW making for a possible max 111,120MWhrs per day if all units operated 24/7.
This chart of Vic daily generation by source (omits solar) shows the current dominance of coal – for large chart. I have marked with the pink X where a horizontal line would be drawn at 111,530MWhrs per day. So just below that would mark 111,120MWhrs per day. Without some way of replacing the reliable 1600MW capacity of Hazelwood – it seems amazing that the media run with this fairy-story.
Fracking moratorium takes effect in NT, Chief Minister Michael Gunner says – read and weep for Australia – in other news – ACCC backs Northern Territory gas pipeline project to bust east coast monopoly pricing
There have been misleading comments on TV news implying that BoM rain Outlooks predicted the heavy September rain in western Victoria that has caused flooding around Coleraine and Hamilton. This is not so as is shown on the September rain Outlook map below.
In the flooded zones the prediction was for 50-55% chance of exceeding the median rain.
Historic first for climate sceptics. I hear the twitterati are agitated – wait till….. This APH link might have the text but the full text is pasted here. Continue reading
Readers have mentioned rain in their areas and I have heard of road closures in the bush.
Added 14 Sep: The map compares Year To Date (YTD) rain with the Annual Mean.