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Early last year a small group of
us noticed that in the Vose et al Fig 5 paired global maps of GHCN and
CRU trends 1976-2003, there were many grid points greatly different in
one map compared to the other.
Vose et al provide two examples of discrepancies “to illustrate the
typical causes involved”. The first, centred over the southern
tip of the Baja California, involves a trend difference of 0.776
degrees per decade. This means that, over this part of the earth,
the CRU series exhibits a temperature trend that is 2.10 degrees higher
than shown by the GHCN over
the period 1976-2003.
“The second problematic box” addressed by Vose et al is centred near
southern California (incl L.A.), which has one of the densest networks
of high-quality
temperature measurement stations in the world. Here there is a
large
discrepancy in the opposite direction. The GHCN record has trend
warming of
0.796 degrees per decade higher than the CRU record, or 2.15 degrees
over
the period of record.
We tried to obtain station data for CRU so we could assist the authors
of Vose et al with our analysis but were denied the station data.
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Then studying Fig 6 we began
pondering the Vose et al statement in their section 4 [14] that,
"..9.4% of all grid-box trends differ by more than 0.100 [degree C per
decade] in both magnitude and sign."
It soon became clear that this clever use of the calming number 9.4%
was in fact concealing the fact that a vastly greater number of grid
points varied by more than 0.1 degree C per decade, regardless of sign.
Vose et al are trying to show that GHCN and CRU are similar, so it does
not matter if for any grid point one or the other is higher, it is
DIFFERENCE that is the issue, so sign is a red herring.
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Last year we obtained a file of
the various global grid point trends re Fig 5 from Russell Vose and
found
that in fact a staggering 57% of grid points differed by more than 0.1,
either + or -.
So, 57% of grid points differ by greater than the magnitude of century
long global warming.
It looks to me as though any agreement between GHCN and CRU at the grid
point level over the period 1976-2003 is simply due to the sum of all
errors tending to approach zero.
North America would have the largest area of high quality climate data
on earth, yet look at the stunning differences in many grid cells.
Click on the USA for our Global map.
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