The Australian Record on "Global Warming" - Tasman Institute 1991 review of the Australian component of temperature records used in the 1986 Jones et al Southern Hemisphere papers, for reference to - TR027  A Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Data Set for the Southern Hemisphere
In 1991 the writer (WSH)  reviewed the Jones et al temperature data for Australia along with a wider selection of Australian data while associated with the Tasman Institute in Melbourne.  The Executive Summary of that unpublished report which was circulated to interested parties, has survived in digital form and is presented here for the first time. Note, the Tasman Institute was a free market think tank  in Melbourne for about a decade, closing in the late 1990's.  I am progressively converting the 18 year old word doc into online form. The main job remaining is to reconstruct several graphics showing the potential for bias when Jones et al 1986 used Australian state capital UHI affected data.

Executive Summary
The major work by P.D. Jones and his team at the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia (Jones, et al 1986a) contains the most up-to-date compilation of the land temperature trend for the southern hemisphere.  In examining in detail the long term trend in temperature records for Australia, this paper provides a critique of the data used by the East Anglia study.

Our conclusion is that Australian temperatures have exhibited no upward trend over the past century.  This conclusion is in contrast to the continental warming trend implicit in the East Anglia study from the stations chosen.  The main reasons why our conclusions differ are that the East Anglia study:

•    included a number of heat island affected city records;

•    excluded other long term records from rural Australia. 

The East Anglia study drew heavily upon data from major urban centres.  One reason for this is the likelihood that such centres' temperature records have been kept more professionally;  in addition, it is easier to trace the need for adjustments due to station shifts in major centres.  Clearly, there are deficiencies in temperature measurements in earlier years and it may well be that the records from more remote stations are inferior to those of the city sites.  However, an examination of peaks and troughs for city and remote sites show a consistent pattern after adjustment for the trend.  This indicates that one possible source of error - human error - is unlikely to be systematically present.

A comparison of trends in the Australian stations used in the East Anglia study with those of stations situated in the same geographic region shows the warming reported by the study to be due to local heat islands rather than a continental warming trend.  Heat islands are widely recognised as occurring in urban areas because of human settlement and infrastructure causing the retention and emission of heat on a local level.  Although the East Anglia study claims to have taken this factor into account in deriving its trends, we consider it to have done so inadequately.  Our own findings, that the dominant reported trends in Australia are due to local heat islands, are consistent with those others have produced, especially in the U.S. 

The following graphs compare the average temperature trend for the 25 regional and remote Australian stations, for which data was available over the years since 1882, with the average temperatures for the six Australian capital cities.  The East Anglia study used five Australian capital cities out of its 13 long term stations. 

GRAPH 1
average temperature trend for the 25 regional and remote Australian stations
Geraldton, Narrabri, Hay, Albany, Rottnest Island Lighthouse, Walgett, Deniliquin, Bourke, Cape Naturaliste Lighthouse,    Coonabarabran, Echuca,  Cooma, Darwin, Moruya Heads Pilot Station, Omeo, Dubbo, Alice Springs, Gabo Island Lighthouse, Bathurst, Strathalbyn, Mt. Gambier, Yamba,  Wilsons Promontory Lighthouse,   Newcastle Signal  Station,  Cape Otway Lighthouse.


GRAPH 2
Temperature trend 1882-1990 Australian cap cities
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Hobart
The East Anglia study contains other data with the potential to cause bias, notably truncation of data in many stations, so that they covered only the most recent 30 years.  During those 30 years, some warming undoubtedly occurred following a general cooling period up to the 1940's, a phenomenon which can be observed in Graph 1 above. 

This study does not attempt to produce a temperature trend for Australia as a whole, although the trend of the remote stations where long term data is available provides a guide.  Perhaps of greater significance, our detailed examination of the Australian data reflects adversely on the entire data set used by the East Anglia study, a data set that has been highly influential in providing apparent corroboration of global warming.  
On 24 Nov 2009  I posted a blog article  "Jones et al 1986 methodical insertion of warming bias" which is seven  pages from  The Australian Record on "Global Warming" - the  section 2 on  Short Term Records below.


(2) SHORT TERM RECORDS  Jones et al 1986 looked at 86 Australian stations and rejected 46 (25 Short term – 21 long term). Of the 40 they used 27 were short term and 13 long term. Of the long term there were 5 large cities.
The 27 short term stations were mostly only quoted from 1951 onward – regardless of what data was available. It just so happens that the years just post WWII were not prominently warm in Australia so an “automatic” warming trend was reinforced into the CRU Australian component.
Here are 11 examples where Jones et al systematically truncated pre-1951 data or ignored more rural data around many small town Australian stations. These graphics and text have been extracted from a 1992 vintage Word doc that somehow survived the decades and how many HDD’s. Note 27 Nov 09 to clear up any ambiguity – check my comment (WSH) 17 below.
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Port Hedland
The aerodrome records 1951-80 shows a clear warming trend. Marble Bar, 150 kms south east, shows a similar trend over that period but a flat trend over 80 odd years.
Port Hedland

Longreach
For the period 1951-80 this trend is sharply upward, yet if the Longreach Post Office record is spliced to the aerodrome record (post 1940s) the trend becomes markedly flatter. When Longreach is compared to Isisford, a much smaller rural centre 80 kms south, the trend is closer to neutral over about 70 years.
Longreach

Mackay
The A.M.O. record 1951-80 shows a clearly steeper warming trend for Mackay when compared with St Lawrence and Pine Islet Lighthouse.
Mackay

Rockhampton
Compared to Bustard Head Lighthouse and St. Lawrence, Rockhampton shows a warming trend of about 0.5°C over 70 years. Rockhampton data was used only for the period 1951-1970. The two nearby more rural sites show a similar temperature pattern but a negligible temperature change over 70 years.
Rockhampton

Meekathara
The Aerodrome record 1951-80 shows a clear strong warming trend. The small centre of Cue, 120 kms south west however has a flat trend over 90 years.
Meekathara

Charleville
The trend for this station 1951-80 also shows a strong warming trend. Cunnamulla, a smaller centre approximately 170 kms south, shows a much flatter trend over about 80 years.
Charleville

Kalgoorlie
The aerodrome record 1941-80 shows a well defined warming. However, when Post Office records are spliced on, the trend is much closer to zero over 90 years. Looking at Southern Cross, a continuous Post Office record, approximately 200 kms west, the trend is very similar, flat over some 90 years.
Kalgoorlie
www.warwickhughes.com/cru86/tr027/kalgoorlie.gif

Forrest
This station 1951-80, shows a steeper warming trend than the nearby Rawlinna, where records go back to 1926.
Forrest

Ceduna
A warming trend is seen over the 1951-80 period, yet the longer term and more remote Streaky Bay, where records are available back to 1925, shows a flatter trend.
Ceduna

Woomera
Once again, this record shows the 1951-80 warming. Broken Hill, the nearest long term station in a similar climate, shows a cooling trend over a hundred year time span.
Woomera

Mt. Gambier
From 1951-80 this aerodrome station shows a strong warming trend. When the Post Office records are spliced on the trend 1860s to 1990, it is close to neutral.
Mount Gambier