"The Kyoto Protocol: don't forget the
science", with over 70 Figures by Bob
Foster, can be downloaded in pdf from the Lavoisier
Here are Bob's introductory comments:
We still don't know what drives climate. But when you
string together what we do know, it comes to a lot
already and it is bad news indeed for
IPCC. The essence of the IPCC story is the prediction
of harmful human-caused global warming in the decades and
centuries ahead. The corollary is that if we do the right
thing about curtailing human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, we
can stabilise global climate.
Now look at the evidence:
- The models on which IPCC relies to scare us about the
future fail the first fundamental test - a match with the
warming observed over the past century.
- In order to reconcile over-predicting models with an
under-warming world, IPCC has invoked aerosol
- But the short-lived aerosols are mostly emitted in the
Northern Hemisphere - where observed warming at the
surface and in the lower atmosphere is not less, but
distinctly more, than in the Southern hemisphere.
Aerosol cooling has been much over estimated.
- Thus, and even taking all 20th century warming as caused
by GHG emissions, the sensitivity of climate to
anthropogenic changes in the composition of the
atmosphere has been over-estimated by the models.
- This conclusion is powerfully confirmed by
observation. Greenhouse is a phenomenon of the
lower atmosphere ie no warming of the atmosphere means no
resultant warming at the surface. It is this latter
which we call greenhouse warming.
- We now have a reasonably-good coverage of atmospheric
temperatures back to 1958, and a comprehensive global
coverage from 1979. Save for a step-jump in 1976/7,
there has been little warming trend in atmospheric
temperatures in the last 42 years.
- The 1976/7 jump is the major feature in the 20th century
temperature record, and it is almost certainly unrelated
to human-caused changes in the composition of the
- This change is a 'non-linear transition between climate
states' such is specifically excluded from the ambit of
the models which IPCC has invoked to scare us.
- It is manifested by abruptly-reduced upwelling of cold
deep water in the equatorial and northern eastern
Pacific, by an abrupt increase in sea-surface
temperature (and probably rainfall) in the central
equatorial Pacific, by an increase in the
heat-content of the surface layers of the world's great
oceans, by cooling at the Caribbean sea-surface, and by
an abrupt change in the trend of length-of-day increase.
- We see here, not evidence of human interference with
climate, but of an abrupt major re-ordering of oceanic
- It appears that this remarkable step-change is
inertially-driven Directly or indirectly, it
appears most likely to linked to radius of gyration
changes, and subsequent LOD variations as Earth preserves
I call this my Oceanic Impedance hypothesis of global
Posted 13, October, 2000
Updated 7, November
© 2001 Bob Foster
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