NZCLIMATE & ENVIRO TRUTH NO 94
SCEPTIC IN BEIJING
From March 2nd to
March 15th I was a Visiting Scholar at the Beijing Climate Center. It
is situated in the midst of a vast complex comprising the Chinese
Meteorological Service in the North West of Beijing, just North of the
zoo. The buildings are large, modern and impressive, and it is
evident that the whole service commands considerable prestige both
locally and internationally..
I and my wife were
supplied with a comfortable two-bedroom flat with new furniture and
furnishings, which included fridge, phone, TV, microwave and kitchen,
An exceedingly inexpensive restaurant and local shops were close.
I was welcomed by the
Director General of the Beijing Climate Center, Dr Wenjie Dong, who had
evidently been reading my material. I was asked to give three lectures
over the fortnight which were received by an appreciative audience of
fifty (for the first) to twenty five (for the third). The final banquet
was chaired by the Vice-Director of the Beijing Meteorological
Administration, Mr Xu Xiaofeng, who subsequently appeared on TV on
behalf of World Meteorological Day.
I was introduced to
several staff members and two of them gave me their recent reprints, in
English, from Acta Meteorologica Sinica.
The most interesting
of these serves to indicate how their opinions are evolving.. It was
ZHOU Zongci, DING
Yihui, LUO Yong, and WANG Shaowu, "Recent Studies on
Attributions of Climate Change in China" , Acta Meteorologica Sinica
2005, Vol 19, 389-400.
You may be aware that
when annual mean surface temperatures for the continental USA are
subjected to a comprehensive correction procedure called "Homogeneity
Adjustment" the resulting sequence shows only very modest overall
warming (less than 1°C) for the period 1900 to 2000. They point out
that such a comprehensive adjustment is not possible anywhere else in
the world because nobody else has the large number of stations and
reliable records for comparison purposes.
We also know (apart
from people like Kevin Trenberth) that the published global surface
record is biased upwards, as shown by recent statistical studies by
McKitrick and Michaels ( Climate Research 2004 26
159-173, for land-based data) and Christy, Parker et al (Geophysical
Research Letters 2001 28, 183-186, for sea-surface
Now, Zhou et al have
carried out a "homogeneity adjustment" on weather station measurements
for China from 1900 to 1998.for temperature and precipitation. The
results are attached. The corrected temperature showed a
behaviour with a peak in 1943 and a similar figure in 1998. No evidence
of significant "global warming". Please note that this adjusted record
has been endorsed by Phil Jones of the UK Hadley Centre
On top of that, they
have identified a large number of natural events which have influenced
annual fluctuations. They conclude
"The signals produced
by the human activities such as greenhouse gases and "brown clouds"
likely play the role for the patterns. But the physical feedbacks and
mechanisms still keep ambiguous and vague. More researches should be
carried out in future to solve this issue"
It is evident that if
comprehensive "homogeneity adjustment" could be carried out for the
whole of the global surface record there would be little remaining
"global warming" which could be attributed to the influence of
greenhouse gas increases.
It might also be noted
that the second author of this paper, DING Yihui, was one of the eight
Chief Editors of "Climate Change 2001, and he is Co-Chair of Working
Group I of the IPCC.
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