& ENVIRO TRUTH NO 88
DECEMBER 11th 2005
Evidence Doesn't matter !
I pointed out in Newsletter 86 that
the evidence for the Greenhouse Effect has almost collapsed. Two
further papers have now appeared which assist in its demise.
The paper by Thorne. Parker, Christy
and Mears, "Uncertainties in Climate Trends" (Bull American
Meteorological SocOctober 2005, 1437-1442), says "We can no longer
absolutely conclude whether globally the troposphere is cooling or
warming relative to the surface".
They say also "Although we use
upper-air temperatures, we contend that structural uncertainty will be
generic to all climate data records"
This remark is surely intended to cast
doubt on the reliability of the surface temperature datasets, where
there is disagreement between the several compilers, and where there
has been no reply to the statistical evidence that they are biased by
They also say "We cannot use climate
models to differentiate between observational datasets as the models
may be wrong"
This demolishes a very common IPCC
procedure for attempting to decide between different observed trends.
"The models may be wrong" Tut tut..
Then there is the paper by
Timothy A Cohn and Harry F Lins, "Nature's Style:
Naturally Trendy". Geophys Research Letters 2005, Vol L23402,
doi:1029/2005GL024476, which shows that the procedures used by
P.D Jones et al to establish trends in the surface temperature
record are mathematically unsound. They say
"the concept of statistical
significance is meaningless when discussing poorly understood
"with respect to temperature data there is overwhelming evidence that
the planet has warmed during the past century. But could this warming
be due to natural dynamics? Given what we know about the complexity,
long-term persistence and non-linearity of the climate system. it seems
the answer might be yes. Finally that reported trends are real yet
insignificant indicates a worrisome possibility: natural climatic
excursions might be much larger than we imagine. So large, perhaps,
that they render insignificant the changes, human-induced or otherwise,
observed during the past century"
A mistake there. How can you know that human-induced changes have been
"observed" if the natural changes might be much greater?
They are all slowly coming round to
an admission that there is no evidence in support of the view that
greenhouse gases are affecting the earth's temperature..
But does it matter? Who cares?
The enviros have succeeded in convincing everybody that it is
true whether there is evidence or not. We are wasting our time. It is
like trying to persuade the Pope that God does not exist.
75 Silverstream Road
Phone/Fax 064 4 9735939
"It's not the things you don't know that fool you.
It's the things you do know that aint so"