Dear Friends

First let me apologise for yesterday's issue which I did not clean up properly. As an excuse, Paradise was out of action all day, and the newsletter got sent accidentally when I thought the system was still out.. The number was wrong. It should have been No 85. So this is 86

We now have many recent observations which show quite conclusively that recent temperature changes of the earth cannot possibly be explained by increases in greenhouse gases.
Let us summarise.
* The combined surface temperature measurements on a global scale are undoubtedly biased upwards by a range of socioeconomic factors related to the sites of measurement (McKitrick and Michaels 2004, Climate Research 26, 159-173
* The combined surface temperature record, when studied in detail INewsletter number 83), shows that the warming occurs almost exclusively in Northern Europe and North America, during the winter months, and at night. It does not occur over the oceans, over Antarctica, or over Siberia. It must therefore be related to better living standards in Western nations,
* The "Hockey Stick" graph, claiming that current temperatures are "umprecedented' has been shown to be incorrectly calculated ( McIntyre and McKitrick 2003, Energy and Environment), and several other studies have shown that the "Medieval Warm Period" was at least as warm as today.
* Warming in the Arctic is cyclic and correlated closely with changes in solar radiation, but not with greenhouse gas concentrations (the last newsletter, No 85 but numbered 84)
*NASA (MSU) Satellite measurements since 1978 show no overall warming if you ignore the El Niño peak in 1998. The IPCC has tried to argue otherwise by claiming the results are contaminated from the  stratosphere. Christy and Spencer, who provide the measurements, deny this.
* Now we have the clincher (attached).. Weather balloons (radiosondes) are able to make a sharp distinction between the lower troposphere and the stratosphere, but the latest IPCC Draft goes to great lengths to try and argue that the measurements are unreliable. Now Thorne et al  (2005, Journal of Geophysical Research 110 D18105, doi:1029/2004JD005753) have carried out a comprehensive compilation of a large number of radiosonde data and subjected them to numerous checks and corrections; to come up with a truly reliable global temperature record for the lower atmosphere from 1958 to 2002. The geographical coverage is impressive, although there are gaps over the oceans and in the South, The record shows a separation between the stratosphere (upper record) and the lower troposphere (lower record. Features are as follws
*The temperature in 2002 was the same as in 1958. There was no overall "global warming" over this period
Temperatures fell from 1962 to 1978 and then jumped back up again, with a large peak (El Niño) in 1998.This jump has never been explained
The part from 1978 to 2002 agrees closely with the MSU record, as agreed by Christy and Spencer
It seems clear from these latest results that there has been no global warming since 1958, that the record since 1978 is confirmed by the MSU but not by the surface measurements, and that carbon dioxide cannot be responsible for most of the effects claimed for it,
*A recent Antarctic Ice Core going back nearly three quarters of a million years shows a close correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature; but the temperature always comes first, between 800 and 2800 years in advance. So temperature causes carbon dioxide, not the other way round (see CO2 Science website)

Vincent Gray
75 Silverstream Road
Crofton Downs
Wellington 6004
New Zealand
Phone/Fax 064 4 9735939
"It's not the things you don't know that fool you.
It's the things you do know that aint so"
Josh Billings