JULY 29TH 2004

Proof Positive

The fundamental argument for the existence of global warming by greenhouse gases is that these gases absorb infra red radiation from the earth, giving a temperature rise in the atmosphere greater than that at the surface.

For some time now it has been evident that the claimed mean surface temperature rise is greater than that in the lower atmosphere. If this is really true the greenhouse theory must be wrong.

As the years go by the problem gets worse. The atmosphere measurements go back to 1960 and all attempts to show they are false have failed. There is simply no temperature rise up there.

Enthusiasts for the greenhouse effect have tried all sorts of arguments to explain or cover up this basic difficulty of their theory. They try to argue that there is a "lapse rate" reversal, for example. Scientific papers attacking the theory have been routinely "peer-reviewed" out of the "respectable" scientific journals and relegated to dissident websites or "less respectable" journals.

These tactics now appear to have failed with the appearance of peer reviewed papers in the top journals which show that the enhanced  greenhouse effect theory is simply false. The latest of these are the following.

Douglass, David H., Benjamin D. Pearson, S. Fred Singer, Paul C. Knappenberger, and Patrick J. Michaels, 2004. Disparity of tropospheric and surface temperature trends: New evidence.  Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13207, doi:10.1029/2004GL020212, July 9, 2004


Observations suggest that the earth's surface has been warming relative to the troposphere for the last 25 years; this is not only difficult to explain but also contrary to the results of climate models. We provide new evidence that the disparity is real. Introducing an additional data set, R2 2-meter temperatures, a diagnostic variable related to tropospheric temperature
profiles, we find trends derived from it to be in close agreement with satellite measurements of tropospheric temperature. This suggests that the disparity likely is a result of near-surface processes. We find that the disparity does not occur uniformly across the globe, but is primarily confined to tropical regions which are primarily oceanic. Since the ocean measurements are sea surface temperatures, we suggest that the disparity is probably associated with processes at the ocean-atmosphere interface. Our study thus makes unlikely some of the explanations advanced to account for the disparity; it also demonstrates the importance of distinguishing between land, sea and air measurements.


Douglass, David H., Benjamin D. Pearson, and S. Fred Singer, 2004. Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13208, doi:10.1029/2004GL020103, July 9, 2004


As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state-of-the-art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with altitude until it reaches a maximum ratio with respect to the surface of as much as 1.5 to 2.0 at about 200-400 hPa. However, the
temperature trends from several independent observational data sets show decreasing as well as mostly negative values. This disparity indicates that the three models examined here fail to account for the effects of greenhouse forcings.

Geophysical Research Letters is the organ of the American Geophysics Union and it has published a large proportion of the papers on climate change reviewed by the IPCC.

Amongst the authors of the above papers are the prominent challengers of greenhouse theory Patrick Michaels and Fred Singer. The papers merely assert, and show conclusively, that all climate models based on the enhanced greenhouse effect undoubtedly predict a higher temperature rise in the lower atmosphere than would be observed on the earth's surface. Also, the rise in
the lower atmosphere is negligible for the past 40 years.

Usually papers such as this attract attempts to answer or make excuses for them in the popular press, This time there is silence, followed by arrogant assertions, such as those from Dr David King, Chief Scientific Advisor to the British Government, that global warming is "certain" and that the "scientific community" is united in this view. How long can they tough it out?

Vincent Gray
75 Silverstream Road
Crofton Downs
Wellington 6004
New Zealand
Phone/Fax (064) 4 9735939
"It's not the things you don't know that fool you.
It's the things you do know that ain't so"
Josh Billings