NZCLIMATE TRUTH 53
JULY 12TH 2004
COLLAPSE OF "GLOBAL WARMING"
The main evidence for the existence of "Global Warming" has been the amalgamated
temperature anomaly records from weather stations and ships provided by three
main teams, the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, UK, The
Institute of Space Studies, New York, and the Global Historical Climatology
Network, National Climate Data Center, Ashewille, NC USA. The UK compilation
was featured in "Climate Change 2001" some seven times.
These compilations were allegedly "corrected" for bias due to "urbanisation".
The validity and adequacy of these corrections has been questioned by many
authors, including myself, but the latest studies begin to look like mortal
I have already pointed out the work of Ross McKittrick and Patrick J Michaels,
Climate Research 26 159-173 in my Newsletter No 49 (June 7th). They
plotted both individual temperature anomalies and the gridded anomalies of
the IPCC against a large number of local variables, most of which proved
to have a significant effect. When they were removed a residual temperature
rise of 0.011± 0.106 °C per decade between 1979 and 2000 remained.
A similar exercise has now been carried out for sea surface temperatures
by Douglass, David H., Benjamin D. Pearson, S. Fred Singer, Paul C. Knappenberger,
and Patrick J. Michaels, 2004. Disparity of tropospheric and surface temperature
New evidence. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13207, doi:10.1029/2004GL020212,
July 9, 2004
Observations suggest that the earth's surface has been warming relative to
the troposphere for the last 25 years; this is not only difficult to explain
but also contrary to the results of climate models. We provide new evidence
that the disparity is real. Introducing an additional data set, R2 2-meter
temperatures, a diagnostic variable related to tropospheric temperature profiles,
we find trends derived from it to be in close agreement with satellite measurements
of tropospheric temperature. This suggests that the disparity likely is a
result of near-surface processes. We find that the disparity does not occur
uniformly across the globe, but is primarily confined to tropical regions
which are primarily oceanic. Since the ocean measurements are sea surface
temperatures, we suggest that the disparity is probably associated with processes
at the ocean-atmosphere interface. Our study thus makes unlikely some of
the explanations advanced to account for the disparity; it also demonstrates
the importance of distinguishing between land, sea and air measurements.
"we suggest that the disparity is probably associated with processes at the
ocean-atmosphere interface" is GRL jargon to say it agrees with the
previous study of
J R Christy, D E Parker, S J Brown, I Macadam, M Stendel & W B Norris
2001 "Differential Trends in Tropical Sea Surface and Atmospheric Temperatures
since 1979; Geophysical Research Letters 28 183-186
which found that the measurement of sea surface temperature at the intake
of the engine cooling water of ships introduced an upwards bias.
So both the weather station measurements and sea surface measurements are
upwardly biased, and there is doubt whether there is any warming left if
the bias is removed.
But the true record of global temperature is to be found in a recent paper
Seidel, Dian J., J.K. Angell, J. Christy, M. Free, S.A. Klein, J.R. Lanzante,
C. Mears, D. Parker, M. Schabel, R. Spencer, A. Sterin, P. Thorne, and F.
Uncertainty in signals of large-scale climate variations in radiosonde and
satellite upper-air temperature datasets. Journal of Climate Vol. 17, No.
11, pp. 2225–2240, June 2004
These authors gathered together all the datasets of mean global temperature,
from weather balloons and satellites, as measured in the lower troposphere,
and averaged them out in a single temperature record
which gives the best estimate of
global temperature change for the years 1957 to 2003.
It will be seen that there has been no globally averaged temperature change
over the period 1957 to 2003. The temperature in 1957 was the same
as it is today. There was a fall over the years 1960 to 1978, and a sudden
jump upwards from 1977 to 1980. The very large spike in 1998 is attributed
to El Niño.
There are temperature fluctuations, some of which can be attributed to natural
events such as volcanoes and ocean variability, but there is nothing in this
record which could be explained by the increases in carbon dioxide concentration
atmosphere over the period. These actual figures are in disagreement with
every single climate model based on the belief that greenhouse gases are
an influence on the climate.
"Global warming" simply does not exist. Of course there are some places close
to cities which have warmed because of the local increase in buildings and
energy production. But there is ample evidence from more remote weather stations
and "proxy" measurements such as tree rings, that there has been no warming
whatsoever far from human activity.
The "greenhouse" theory of "climate change" is surely dead.
Back to NZ Climate Truth
Back to WarwickHughes.com