NZCLIMATE TRUTH 48
26TH MAY 2004
DOUGLAS V HOYT
Douglas V. Hoyt is a solar physicist and climatologist who worked for more
than thirty years as a research scientist in the field. He has worked at
NOAA, NCAR, Sacramento Peak Observatory, the World Radiation Center, Research
and Data Systems, and Raytheon where was a Senior Scientist. He has conducted
research on issues related to climate change, changes in solar irradiance
on all time scales, and the sun-climate connection. His most recent publication
is the book "The Role of the Sun in Climate Change" . He has published nearly
100 scientific papers on solar irradiance variations, the greenhouse effect,
atmospheric transmission, aerosols, cloud cover, sunshine, radiative transfer,
radiometers, solar activity, sunspot structure, sunspot decay rates, and
the history of solar observations.
He has received no funding from any fossil fuel entity or government entity.
His work is influenced only by the data and the study of the scientific literature.
He has recently published
A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
a detailed and up-to-date survey on Climate Science which offers a challenge
to that promoted by the IPCC. It is available on http://www.warwickhughes.com/hoyt/climate-change.htm>
The well-known IPCC TAR conclusions are: “Climate sensitivity is likely to
be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C. …The climate sensitivity is the equilibrium
response of global surface temperature to a doubling of equivalent CO2 concentration.
The range of estimates arises from uncertainties in the climate models and
their internal feedbacks, particularly those related to clouds and related
In contrast, Hoyt shows that:
* most empirical determinations of climate sensitivity place it somewhere
between 0.07 and 0.26 C/W/m2
* recent published work shows that the sum total of all feedbacks is negative
* the upper limit on warming due to a doubling of carbon dioxide is 0.7 C
and it is probably much less.
In addition to these carefully argued conclusions he tackles many other inaccuracies
in the IPCC results.So far the IPCC scientists have not had the courage to
reply to his criticisms.
He gives many references and links, and it is quite a struggle to go through
all of them. Good hunting!
Warwick Hughes is a New Zealand-born graduate in geology from Auckland University
who has worked in Australia for many years and has carried out pioneering
research on surface temperature measurement. Much of this is to be found,
plus important general information, and links to other sites, on his website
I owe him a debt for his help in my early work on the greenhouse effect,
and he has now generously offered to put the best of these newsletters on
his website. I will be updating and editing them, so if you want the latest
news see his site.
75 Silverstream Road
Phone/Fax (064) 4 9735939
"It's not the things you don't know that fool you.
It's the things you do know that ain't so"