NZ CLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER N0
30TH OCTOBER 2003
"CONSENSUS is the process of
abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies in search
of something in which no one believes , but to which no one objects; the
process of avoiding the very issues that have to be solved. merely because
you cannot get agreement on the way ahead."
Margaret Thatcher The Downing Street
Years, page 167
The Summary for Policymnakers
that appears at the beginning of all Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change is agreed line-by-line by Government Representatives and
senior scientists. It therefore represents a true CONSENSUS.
But, although it undoubtedly is a unanimous
agreement, it also represents a compromise between opposing views, and it
suffers from the drawbacks so clearly stated by Maggie.
For example, take the statement
first made in Climate Change 95, " The balance of the evidence
suggests a discernible human influence on global climate "
To start with the "balance of the evidence"
does not prove that humans influence the climate, nor does it show
that there is an influence. All we have is suggests, and
no scientific basis is given for this suggestion, or who it was that suggested
Then, there is no mention of greenhouse gases as one
of the possible human influences. It is evident that there must have
been a significant number of participants who refused to include such an
The statement is meaningless, and certainly cannot be
interpreted to mean that the IPCC have established a relationship between
greenhouse gases and climate.
ALL the statements in the various "Summaries
for Policymakers" are similarly obscure and non-committal. It is the price
paid for consensus.
Climate Change 1990, the first
Report, in its first paragraph, claimed that the additional greenhouse gases
would result "on average in an additional warming of the earth's surface",
but no mention of whether this additional warming was measurable, significant,
Later, they said, referring to the combined weather station
record, "The size of the warming is broadly consistent with the prediction
of climate models but is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability'
Now, if you compared the combined weather
station record with the prediction of climate models you would find little
broad consistency. The weather station record showed a large rise from 1910
to 1940 when greenhouse gases were sparse, and a fall from 1945 to 1975,
when they increased. The records are "broadly inconsistent". About the only
thing they agree on is they both rise over the past century. But here we
run into a persistent trick of the IPCC. They know that a cause/effect
relationship cannot be established by comparing similar curves,
but they try to find a form of words which implies that you can. Broadly
consistent is one way...
Even if "broad consistency" were to imply
a cause and effect, it might not involve greenhouse gases at all, since
the climate models, based on greenhouse gases, are also an approximate model
for ENERGY from fossil fuels. Even if you get a good agreement
between warming of weather stations and climate models based on greenhouse
gases, it may be that it is because the weather station thermometers are
more influenced by the extra heat from fuel combustion than by the
greenhouse gases emitted.
Climate Change 01 made several
similarly confusing statements.
"There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
"The last 50 years" is puzzling. The
combined weather station record, which is heavily promoted by the IPCC,
does not show a warming for the past 50 years. For the first half,
1950-1975 the temperature fell. It showed a rise only for the
last 25 years. But then, the satellite record, which is far more reliable
than the weather station record, does not show a significant warming for
the past 25 years.
Then what is meant by "attributable"
Yet another way of implying a forbidden cause and effect from
And "human activities". Once more, no
mention of greenhouse gases.
Then we have
"most of the warming over the last 50
years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations."
Yet another breach of the cause/effect rule; using "is likely" as
a cover up ,and this time, no mention of humans. The main greenhouse gas,
after all, is water vapour and that could change without humans.
It is clear that none of the IPCC "Summaries
for Policymakers" claim that the enormous amount of scientific
evidence has established a relationship between greenhouse gases
and any climate parameter; that is. apart from the beneficial additional
plant, forest, and crop growth.
The true opinion of the IPCC scientists
is to be found in Chapter 1 of Climate Change 01, page 97
"The fact that the global mean temperature
has increased since the late 19th century and that other trends have been
observed does not necessarily mean that an anthropogenic effect on the climate
has been identified. Climate has always varied on all time-scales, so the
observed change may be natural".
But this opinion got buried in CONSENSUS.
THE FOURTH IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORTS
A meeting at Science House, Wellington,
on Tuesday October 27th discussed New Zealand's contribution to the next
IPCC Report, due to be published in 2007.
The objective will be to try and reduce
the enormous bulk of these Reports by dealing only with updates and changes.
We will believe it when we see it!
The Working Group 1 (Science) Report
now proposes five Chapters out of 11 to deal with actual climate data, and
the models take a back seat near the end. There are brave attempts to deal
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