NZCLIMATE & ENVIRO TRUTH NO 103
JUNE 15TH 2006
SNOW JOB ON TUVULU
Everybody knows about
Tuvulu, It is becoming inundated by the rising sea level because of
global warming. The New Zealand Government has recognised the plight of
the embattled inhabitants by offering special deals for
immigration. So have the Australians. It forms a regular topic at
meetings of the Pacific Forum and beyond, and there cannot possibly be
any disagreement on the matter.
A couple of years' ago
I was interviewed by the Dunedin-based Natural History Unit as part of
documentary for the National Geographic Channel. I had over an hour to
give my views on greenhouse warming, which I expected would appear in
an internationally distributed documentary. They sent me a copy of the
final doco "to enjoy". I found that it was all about how Tuvulu is
faced with imminent disaster, with a "moaning Minnie" lady persistently
bemoaning the loss of her homeland from a comfortable flat in Brisbane.
My contribution had been almost eliminated.
But Tuvulu reminds me
of a comic song I used to sing of Gracie Fields called "He's dead but
he won't lie down". Tuvulu persistently refuses to subside.
A tide gauge to
measure sea level has been in existence at Tuvulu since 1977, run by
the University of Hawaii It showed a negligible increase of only 0.07
mm per year over two decades It fell three millimeters between 1995 and
1999. The complete record can still be seen on John Daly's website
Obviously this could
not be tolerated, so the gauge was closed in 1999 and a new,
more modern tide gauge was set up by the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology's National Tidal Center by Flinders University at Adelaide.
But Tuvulu refuses to submit to political pressure.The sea level has
actually fallen .since then
Tuvulu cannot be
allowed to get away with it. So Greenpeace employed Dr John Hunter. a
climatologist of the University of Tasmania, who obligingly "adjusted"
the Tuvulu readings upwards to comply with changes in ENSO and
those found for the island of Hawaii and, miraculously, he
found a sea level rise of "around" 1.2 mm a year.which,
also miraculously, agrees with the IPCC global figure.
Since all this seems
biased, or politically influenced, Dr John Church of the CSIRO at
Hobart, Tasmania, a Lead Author of the IPCC Chapter on "Sea
Level", plus his colleague Dr Neil White, have sought to
reverse actual measured trends by "combining records from tide
gauges from all over the world with satellite altimeter data to assess
regional variation". Unsurprisingly, and equally miraculously, they
reach the same conclusion as Greenpeace and the IPCC. All this has to
be imposed on poor little Tuvulu to "prove" global warming.and
The IPCC Chapter on
Sea Level is one of the more dishonest. It practices two important
deceptions. First, it completely fails to mention the fact that many
tide gauges are situated close to cities where the land is subsiding
because of erection of heavy buildings, or removal of ground water, oil
and minerals. . It so happens
that the island of Hawaii is one of the
more heavily populated Pacific islands where the sea
level is "rising" because the land is "falling" Another reason for
upwards bias is Port Adelaide, Australia, where they decided to
increase the water level in the harbour to allow for larger ships, They
dredged and built a bar on the harbour. Unsurprisingly, the level
rose on the tide-gauge. Corrections for these upwards biases in
tide-gauge measurements have never been permitted to be discussed by
The other deception of
the IPCC Sea Level Chapter is in statistics. The sea level averages are
so inaccurate that they have to supply only one standard
deviation as a measure of inaccuracy, instead of the otherwise
universal use of two standard deviations. One standard deviation gives
only a one in three chance that the measurement lies outside the
limits. Two standard deviations puts it up to one in twenty. If you use
the proper figures you find that the accuracy sometimes permits a less
than one in twenty chance of a sea level fall. That must never be
This whole melancholy
story is told in an article in "Science" 2006 Volume
312, pages 734 to 736, It seems that the Greenpeace organisation
is now occupying the role of the late Trofim Lysenko in their
ability to reverse the findings of scientific research.
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