Category Archives: Urban Heat Islands

Examining in closer detail Jones et al 2008 eastern China land/SST grid box where they conclude urban warming at ~0.1 degrees per decade

Remember from the previous post, that Jones et al 2008 in their section 3.3. Comparisons with SST Data, say.
“As it is difficult to develop a network of specifically rural sites in China, we now compare the CHINA-LI and CRUTEM3v series with one based on HadSST2 [Rayner et al., 2006] for the region (20–45 deg N by 110–125 deg E) to the east of China.”
A quick look at the map in an article below, will show you where this grid area fits in east China.

Their results are given in Jones et al 2008 Table 5 which shows temperature trends in their land based CHINA-LI and CRUTEM3v series compared with sea surface trends of HadSST2. Table 5 quotes comparisons over 3 periods, 1951-2004, 1954-1983 and 1981-2004.
The two longest periods measured in their Table 5 do show the land warming more than the sea, at 0.11/decade 1951-2004 and 0.13/decade 1954-1983. These results back their urban warming conclusion. Only the shortest period they checked, 1981-2004 shows a contrary result.

Jones et al quote the HadSST2 sea surface temperature data but there are at least two other global SST datasets worth comparing to attempt to get a fuller picture. We also compare with the Reynolds V2 and HadISST1 SST data, all downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer website. Now Reynolds data is only available from Nov 1981, 1982 on a full year basis so I do two comparisons to get as close as I can to the Jones et al 1981-2004 period.

My results on KNMI data are as follows, all numbers are temperature trends per decade
.
1982-2004
Trend per decade CRUT3=0.49, HadSST=0.53, Reynolds=0.42, HadISST1=0.42
So differencing CRUT3 and Reynolds & HadISST1 over this 23 year period indicates urban warming of circa 0.07 degree per decade.

1982-2008
Trend per decade CRUT3=0.45, HadSST=0.40, Reynolds=0.29, HadISST1=0.32
So differencing CRUT3 with Reynolds & HadISST1 over this 27 year period indicates urban warming of circa 0.16 degree per decade (Reynolds) and 0.13 degree per decade (HadISST1).
To conclude, these extra SST comparisons strengthen the Jones et al 2008 finding of urban warming over China.

History made as Jones et al 2008 paper admits huge urban warming in IPCC flagship CRUT3 gridded data over China

So sceptics have been correct for decades.

Yes you have to pinch yourself, the old canard so long clung to by the IPCC, that the urban influence in large area gridded data is “an order of magnitude less than the warming seen on a century timescale” is now severely compromised.

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Now Jones et al 2008 are saying in their Abstract, “Urban-related warming over China is shown to be about 0.1 degree per decade, hey that equates to a degree per century. Huge.

Chinese climate scientists tactfully tell the IPCC that surface air temperature (SAT) trends over north China include a large component of urban warming

Ren et al 2008 measure urban warming in a north China grid box 33 to 43 degrees North and 108 to 120 degrees East by comparing temperature trends in groups of stations of different population size for the period 1961-2000. For a concise summary of the Ren et al 2008 paper, Urbanization Effects on Observed Surface Air Temperature Trends in North China
Ren et al 2008 grid cell north China
Their results are summarised in their Table 3 copied here and they conclude from this, assuming no urban warming in their Rural series which warms at 0.18 degrees per decade that urban warming in their various station groups is as shown in their Table 4 below.
Ren et al Tables 3 and 4
In view of the importance of IPCC global warming underpinning carbon reduction policies being considered by many nations, it seemed vital to compare the Ren et al trends against those for the Hadley Centre CRUT3 land only data which has provided the mainstay for IPCC warming claims over nearly 20 years. Ren et al did not compare their trends with any global gridded datsets.

Taking the Hadley Centre CRUT3 data for Ren et al’s north China grid box from the KNMI Climate Explorer website we find a warming trend of 0.31 degrees per decade over the 40 years 1961 to 2000. When compared to the Ren et al numbers in Table 3 we can see this warming trend is near the top of the range and indeed indicates urban warming of 0.13 per decade or equivalent to a rate of 1.3 degrees per century.
So, more evidence that IPCC data contains serious UHI contamination.

Quickly comparing the Hadley Centre CRUT3 land only data 1979-2008 for the north China grid box with the NASA MSU LT data from University of Alabama at Huntsville, all data downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer.
We find that CRUT3 warms at 0.57 degrees per decade, while the lower troposphere warms at 0.27, suggesting urban warming of 0.3 per decade. This comparison indicates that urban warming in north China has increased after 2000.

Reference
Ren, G., Zhou, Y., Chu, Z., Zhou, J., Zhang, A., Guo, J. and Liu, X. 2008. Urbanization effects on observed surface air temperature trends in north China. Journal of Climate 21: 1333-1348.

Huge Urban Heat Island UHI contamination in Hadley Centre-Jones-IPCC CRUT3 land temperature data over Eastern China

Now that the NASA-UAH satellite temperature data extends over a clear 30 years 1979-2008, this is a timely opportunity to check again the old IPCC canard that the various global temperature datasets are in agreement. In this case I compare the Hadley Centre CRUT3 land only data 1979-2008 with the NASA MSU LT data from University of Alabama at Huntsville, all data downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer.
East China grid box
For this grid-box over Eastern China 110 to 120 degrees East and 20 to 40 degrees North, satellites show the lower troposphere warms at 0.20 degrees per decade while the Hadley Centre land data warms at 0.46 degrees per decade. This suggests that there is 0.26 degrees per decade of urban warming in the Hadley Centre-IPCC data. A rate equivalent to 2.6 degrees per century.
This is twenty years after the UHI contamination in these Jones et al datasets was brought to the authors attention by Dr Fred Wood.

“Our hot, dry future”?

THESE days, it can be hard to imagine how Melbourne ever earned a reputation as the gloomy, rain-filled capital of the south. But, growing up in the 1970s, my memories are full of muddy ovals, local creeks in flood and catching tadpoles in puddles that lasted for months on end. How things have changed.Since 1996, each successive calendar year has brought the city below-average rainfall. With 299 millimetres recorded so far this year, and with just three months to go, it seems virtually certain that this year will become the 12th in a row that has failed to get to the average of 650 millimetres. September 2008 was the driest on record in Melbourne, and the outlook for the remainder of the year suggests that below-average rainfall will continue.So why has it been so dry? The drought started in late 1996, and the subsequent El Nino years of 1997, 2002 and 2006 have each been particularly dry. Ordinarily, these events would have been interspersed with wetter years, but since 1996 the intervening periods have only approached average at best, with the deepening drought particularly evident in our reservoirs and stream-flows.

My main criticism of the article is that the BoM relies on Melbourne CBD rain data to back up their regional conclusions regarding “climate change” and drought, while the rainfall history is in fact affected by the growing urban heat island.

Melbourne Regional Office 86071 (MRO), a weather station in Melbourne’s CBD is

(a) excluded from their own High Quality (HQ) dataset and

(b) shows a negative trend of 90mm (a stunning 13% of mean annual rain) over the last 153 years when compared to the nearest HQ station, Yan Yean 35 km NNW.

So much of what they say in “Our hot, dry future”, is slanted by this amount, no wonder I am critical of much that the BoM publishes.

153 years of declining rain in Melbourne CBD

Melbourne Regional Office weather station in Melbourne’s CBD which has rain data from 1855, is a site that has undergone enormous changes in its surroundings as the city has been built and expanded over the centuries, resulting in an ever-increasing urban heat island.

Melbourne UHI transect on calm night

The above illustration is from a 1997 BoM paper.

High rise developments have increasingly affected wind and changing pollution levels over the decades could also cause variations in rain formation. Up to post WWII coal burning would have been common leading to much worse pollution than modern times, (note visibility data) and air quality data show improvements over say the last 40 years.

These are just a quick sketch of some reasons why weather data from a large and expanding urban heat island is a most unsuitable source from which to draw conclusions about, climate change, regional changes and long term rain trends.

Finally, the article contains another BoM failed prediction, saying in the second paragraph, “..the outlook for the remainder of the year suggests that below-average rainfall will continue.” Wrong BoM, the 2 month rainfall total for November-December for Melbourne Regional Office was 130.8mm compared to the long term mean of 118.7.

Jennifer Marohasy featured 5 articles on her blog examining the subject during October 2008; the first titled How Melbourne’s Climate Has Changed: A reply to Dr David Jones (Part 1) was posted on 14 October and parts 2 to 5 were later in the month.

True temperature trends for Puerto Rico hidden in fragmented data

Last year I posted “San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends” . I should have added this Fig 4 from Duchon’s 86 paper that I refer to.

There is IPCC AGW shouting out from the UHI affected San Juan trend, incorporated by Jones et al and the IPCC of course.
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The trends below in Fig 4, from smaller places show little warming. Data are of poorer quality in a technical sense, but that is where the truth is.

1996 paper finds UHI bias in Jones et al IPCC South African temperature trends

This paper by Dr Robert Balling Jr and myself examines a series of rural and small town South African temperature data and compared 30 year trends with available Jones 1994 grid box trends.
Rural vs IPCC T trends
We found clear evidence that warming trends were much higher in the Jones data which of course includes many large urban centres. The trend of our 19 station series from non-urban sites is shown red in this extract from our Fig 2.
Continue reading 1996 paper finds UHI bias in Jones et al IPCC South African temperature trends

Review comments on papers by the “great and the good”

A catch-all post for comments on my various reviews on significant pro IPCC climate papers.

Dr Rolf Philipona has kindly replied to my comments on his 2005 paper. I intend to present more data for various parameters in the weeks ahead.

Just for now though I want to restate that the Greenhouse Effect has to act in the lower atmosphere and then some of that heat is re-radiated to the surface. See basic descriptions on this NOAA site.

Hence my comment that I feel it is odd to ignore lower troposphere trends, because that is where AGW has first to take place.

IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is driven by increases in trace gases carbon dioxide, methane etc plus contentious postulated positive feedbacks from water vapour which as many authorities state is by far the most abundant greenhouse gas.

To wrap up for now, just a few very general points. Readers who follow weather forecasts and associated satellite imagery do not need me to point out that the lower atmosphere is characterized by constant large scale movement, lateral and vertical and circulation of air masses on hemispheric scales. Dr Philipona has alluded to looking to understand European warming to some extent outside the influence of the NAO and other people may comment on that.

Then there are issues of truly colossal scale heat transport such as the ever present Gulfstream which prevents the European climate from being significantly more frigid.

I have trouble imagining that Dr Philipona’s “line to the sky” radiation measurements from his Alpine site, however beautifully expressed in mathematics, can explain European warming in the face of these other confounding weather and climate factors.

Daily temperature range (DTR), max minus min, some ramblings

Philip B commented on “Climate predictions “right only half the time””

Warwick you wrote:

Since the nighttime temperatures are rising three times as fast as the daytime temperatures (Karl et al., 1993), it implies a non-climatic signal in the nighttime data equal to about one half of the total warming. It implies the reported global warming of 0.6 C in the twentieth century should be reduced to about 0.3 C.

Have you seen the analyses of Australia temperature data at Gust Of Hot Air?

It shows that rising minimum temperatures are giving a false impression of rising nighttime temperatures, which are rising much less than the minimum, in a number cases there is no rise at all even though the minimum is rising.

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that rising minimum temperatures reflect increased daytime warming and not increasing nighttime temperatures. As well as that increasing minimum and maximum temperatures are showing more heat gain to the system than there is.

After replying, I thought we needed a new thread

You had me searching for that quote Philip. It is on a page written by Dr Doug Hoyt, just above his references.

I agree with his thrust there as I have thought for years now that IPCC supportive scientists have attributed DTR closure to a greenhouse signal when in fact it is exactly a UHI signal – which they always manage to either ignore, trivialise or minimise in some way.
Continue reading Daily temperature range (DTR), max minus min, some ramblings