Jointly with Ed Thurstan.
Since the mid 1990’s the BoM has produced several adjusted versions of Australian temperature history – these add more warming trend than the raw data show and many climate sceptics have been rightly critical of these BoM “high quality” (HQ) versions – what could be termed “stroked and tweaked” data.
In March the BoM released its latest version of adjusted temperature data termed ACORN SAT and time series of daily max and min ACORN data for 111 stations can be downloaded.
There has been criticism of the way BoM HQ or ACORN data reduces hot days from the past – particularly pre mid 20th Century – which increases the warming trend. But fancy arguments can be raised as to whether the temperature in the distant past was measured in an exactly equivalent manner to modern data. However frosts are a different matter – constituting a marker of air temperature independent of thermometers.
Examining both the ACORN daily minimum temperature data for Melbourne Regional Office (BoM Station 86071) and the raw BoM data we found many frost mornings in the raw data (minimums below 0 degrees C) that were altered to non-frost days in the ACORN version (minimums above 0 degrees C) – see this example from August 1944 where the BoM in their 2012 ACORN data wipe out 3 frost days.
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However in this case it is bad luck for the BoM that the online newspaper archive of the National Library of Australia has the Argus newspaper for the 9th August 1944 reporting the “THIRD SUCCESSIVE FROST”.
These inconvenient facts expose the BoM as writers of climate fairy stories –
from what should be the best maintained set of weather instruments in the Nation – expertly observed.
Category Archives: BoM Australia
Weather Bureau for Australia
How the Australian Bureau of Meteorology can get vital issues wrong
I have been looking at the BoM’s new iteration of adjusted Australian temperature data – ACORN SAT. Taking a look at the pdf report 049 “Techniques involved in developing the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) dataset”
p 86 of 104 Table 8 – Urban classification of ACORN-SAT locations.
– we see
My eye is drawn to to Canberra Airport 070014 classified non-urban. It just seems delusional for the BoM to fail to recognize that UHI affected air from the steady growth of Canberra has been steadily impacting airport instruments at least since WWII. – Not to mention the booming Airport Brindabella and Majura Business Parks – the suburb of Fyshwick and town of Queanbeyan. Not to mention warm air wafting around from the tons of burnt jet fuel and avgas – all of the above effects increasing over the decades.
A photo series here shows the growing business parks development at the airport itself.
image 6 of 16 shows the instruments in the top left – I have marked a copy looking east – business building to south – Fairbairn RAAF to the far left – BoM instruments new site is just above the red “BoM”. Frames 1, 2 & 4 have good views of the business park.
I am working on station by station comparisons of the various BoM adjusted versions over the last 2 decades. If anybody has ideas examples to use, please email them in or let me know.
A 2010 post on UHI at Canberra Airport.
the Google map images seem to have reverted to some odd old version ?
Australian Climate Commission makes dodgy claims about Western Sydney hot days
About a week ago Dr Tim Flannery, Professor Lesley Hughes and other Climate Commission luminaries went public with claims about hot days above 35C in Western Sydney including;
“…hot days had already increased 60 per cent in western Sydney since 1970…”
and – Federal Climate Commissioner Professor Lesley Hughes says western Sydney is getting disproportionally hotter and drier than the rest of Sydney.
“If we compare western Sydney with the rest of Sydney, the number of hot days in western Sydney used to be three times as many as eastern Sydney, and now it’s four times,” she said.
These claims are from the Climate Commission report – “The Critical Decade: New South Wales climate impacts and opportunities”. If you Google the report title you will find the ~5MB pdf download.
Here is the Climate Commission Figure 3 from page 4.
Which gives them the pictorial of increasing heat that they want you to believe.
Here is the entire Sydney record showing warm peaks in 1926 and the 1940’s – so deliberately censored out by the Climate Commission because those inconvenient data destroy their pro-IPCC storyline.
I have also shown the Richmond RAAF data which commenced in December 1939 (so missed out on Jan-March 39) and shows the all time peak of 36 days over 35 degrees in 1940 – despite 1940 data only including Jan to the first few days of May, no data for December. So the all time peak of 36 days over 35 degrees would probably have been higher if all the data had been preserved. Then there was no data for 1941-42 – 1943,44,45 were OK but 1946 only has Jan-May (with a few gaps) yet still made 21 days over 35C. The gap post May 1946 carries on through 1947-52. Then 1953 does not start until late April yet still made 15 days over 35C. So we are fortunate that enough data has been preserved from Dec 1939 to show up the Climate Commission distortions of our history.
To sum up how the Climate Commission has been misleading.
[1] Shortening the Sydney trend to censor out periods warmer than they want you to know about.
[2] Failing to find the well known Richmond RAAF data – which comprehensively ruins their storyline.
[3] Leaving a large gap in their Paramatta trend circa 1978 which they should have known was concealing a peak comparable to the last few years. Keeping their storyline intact again.
[4] Making all manner of scaremongering statements about heatwaves based on 1,2 & 3.
It is interesting to reflect that if Hitler had not invaded Poland in Sept 1939 – the RAAF would maybe not have been so active at their Richmond base and the BoM might not have commenced the temperature station there in Dec 1939.
And the Climate Commission would have been more likely to have succeeded with their misleading version of the history of hot days in Western Sydney.
Jennifer Marohasy and Basil Beamish have reported on these issues before me – thanks to them both.
Climate Commission Fudges Hot Day Data
and
Basil Beamish for Climate Commissioner – which shows how Bathurst data too ruins the Climate Commission fairystories.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology to trial online advertising
News comes out on Federal Budget night – which we all know is a classic PR tactic to bury news that Govt preferred was not noticed. So when you want to go online and check your local forecast – that you have amply paid for with your taxes over the years – you might now be offered – who knows what desirable goods or services ? Time will tell.
Do we have any readers out there familiar with online adverising who could estimate some potential numbers for us and take a guess at the type of advertising we might be offered.
Note too that the BoM despite being the subject of at least two inquiries – garners another 40 staff at $120,000 each – $4.8million.
I have a letter from the Australian National Audit Office stating their – “…2011 Audit Work Program includes two potential audits on the Bureau of Meteorology.”
I see too that in Dec 1999 there was an audit of the BoM into Severe weather. Interesting to see no mention of “flash flooding” – yet flash flooding killed so many people near Toowoomba in early 2011. Despite flash flooding being noted around Toowoomba by various newspaper reports over the last 100 years.
Canberra Airport 55 year record for 5 consecutive frosts up to the 8th May
With the budget to be delivered tonight and the Carbon Tax about to slam into our hip pocket nerves – I thought that the assembling MP’s mostly from warmer climes might like knowing that the Canberra bleakness they had encountered was a 55 year old record. In 1957 there were 10 consecutive frosts from the 3rd to 12th May – and they were colder than this year – but the urban heat island was much less in 1957. May 2011 had a 54 year record for total frost days.
Early April – Easter snow around Canberra
Just seen on ABC online news with a good photo from Tinderry 50km south Canberra.
Does anybody have info as to how long ago since we had snow this early ?
Government wants a new director for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
I noted in April 2009 – “Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) now run by non-meteorologist”.
Government thanks outgoing Bureau of Meteorology director, Dr Greg Ayers – 20 February 2012.
I notice that 18th July 2011 Govt announced a “Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Capacity”.
They said then – The review is expected to present its findings to the government by the end of November 2011.
The review is being led by Ms Chloe Munro, who brings strong commercial skills and expertise in public policy and corporate finance through her senior leadership experience in the public and private sectors both in Australia and overseas.
Now – Easter Saturday 7 April 2012 Govt advertises for new Director of BoM
Odd that they are appointing a new boss while this review is still ongoing – but most things about our Govt are a bit weird.
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Still shown as Chairman of AquaSure on their website – AquaSure is the consortium building the Victorian Desalination Project.
12 May 2011 – Ms Chloe Munro has been appointed as Chair of the National Water Commission.
Then the 18th July 2011 appointment to Review the Bureau of Meteorology’s Capacity.
And on 10 Feb 2012 we see she is the Chair and Chief Executive Officer of the Clean Energy Regulator. Presumably the CER administers the Govts new Carbon Tax.
No wonder the BoM review is late – my head is in a spin.
Has anybody got insights re the public service history of the dynamic Ms Chloe Munro.
Another 3 months of spectacular failed BoM temperature and rainfall Outlook predictions
The maximum temperature Outlook must be a comprehensive failure over eastern Australia extending to the 50% line inside WA. Maps of actual weather averages can be made here.
The cool success in WA has to be limited by the warmth of the western WA coastal strip which would lower the score there. Overall surely a serious fail mark.
The minimum temperature Outlook must be an even worse failure – with not one square centimetre of the continent predicted to be even as cool as average. If anyone can spot the BoM 50% line – let me know. I see the “National night-time HotSpot†shining through – you can not hold down BoM errors.
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Even the rainfall Outlook fails overall despite a win or two here and there. You have to look at the huge areal extent of the predicted dry inside the 50% line – note the majority of the NSW highest ever rain areas were predicted dryer than average.
And our gullible policymakers and politicians are convinced the BoM can predict the future – what a sick joke.
CRUT4 revison of the Murray-Darling Basin grid box temperature data – is this the worst warming tweak ever by the UKMO / Jones et al team ?
Many long term Australian temperature stations have data well back into the 1800’s. Often these 19C data show warmth on a scale with modern decades. See my two graphics from 1991.
Although the Jones et al 1986 data included very few of the long term Australian non-Capital city data – in 1994 many of these stations were included. The situation stayed like this up to the closing of CRUT2 in 2005 – included many Australian stations with relatively warm data a century or more ago – see my article in Coolwire Issue 5: Jan 2003 – “Global Warming” and the Australian Drought. Note the contrasting trends from the adjoining Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) and Sydney grid cells which IMHO are due to urban warming effects in the Sydney grid cell CRUT2 data.
In 2006 the UK Met Office (UKMO) took over the reins and rebuilt CRUT2 into CRUT3. In recent weeks Jones has announced his latest version CRUT4 and the point of this article is to highlight the huge extra warming in the trend for the MDB grid cell in CRUT4 compared to CRUT3. The MDB has been “corrected” to now agree with the urban affected UKMO version of their Sydney Airport station (947670) trend.
All the grid box data has been downloaded from KNMI Climate Explorer.
Some background on the warm 19C data. The BoM does not publish it “high quality” data further back than 1910 because the have a view that most data before that might not have been collected in a Stevenson screen. I disagree with that and have a 1995 paper with pages scanned here. Here are two studies into the temperature changes produced when thermometer exposures have changed from older more exposed stands to the louvre sided box – the Stevenson screen.
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In his abstract Parker found – “…little overall bias in land surface air temperature has accumulated since the late nineteenth century:” He speaks of a maximum bias of 0.2 deg but says summer and winter changes may have cancelled out.
Then in 1996 Nicholls, N., R. Tapp, K. Burrows, and D. Richards. Historical thermometer exposures in Australia. Int. J. Climatology, 16, 705-710 (downloadable at above link – note Nicholls et al are BoM).
Nicholls et al compared a long running experiment at Adelaide comparing readings in Stevenson screens and a Glaisher stand found that – “Over the year, the mean temperatures were about 0.2 deg C warmer in the Glaisher stand, relative to the Stevenson screen.”
So looking back to the main issue of the massive increase in the CRUT4 trend over the MDB grid cell – I have this chart of CRUT4 minus CRUT3 which shows massive adjustments of 1 to 1.5 degrees – seems out of all proportion to the 0.2 degrees adjustment justified by Nicholls et al 1996.
If anybody knows of greater warming adjustments in CRUT4 grid cell data – please let me know.
Loss of the New Zealand fishing boat “Easy Rider” NW coast Stewart Island 14 March 2012 claimed eight lives
Reading some of the earlier press on this tragedy there was mention of worsening weather. Google will find many articles. If anybody can find forecasts for the morning of the 14th – please send them in. Likewise if anybody has weather observations from the NW of Stewart Island – I would be keen to see them. Is there a lighthouse there ?
I was curious as to what the BoM satellite images show – here are 24 frames at 30 minute intervals that day – the time is UTC (Greenwich)and NZ is 13 hours ahead.
So as the images roll through – look for the early morning frames – around Loop Number 7 – that would be when Easy Rider left Bluff that evening. Opinion seems to be that she was lost about midnight – so look for the 11.32 UTC frame – Loop Number 12. The semi-circular patch to the south of NZ is cold air and the cloud band signifying the cold front is blindingly obvious. You could expect elevated winds around a cold front – made worse by shoaling water around the NW capes. I am not saying cold fronts are “ship sinkers” – but negative factors can add up.
These satellite animations are available free on the BoM website. Not hard to check if an unfavourable system is coming your way. The satellite archives are here.