These mean temperature anomaly maps show Australia has experienced moderate temperatures overall for the last 24 months.
Mean temperature anomaly map for 12 months ending 31 October 2011
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Now we have a hot spell in the centre and the BoM is predicting heat records today for many sites.
Category Archives: BoM Australia
Weather Bureau for Australia
Dry zone expansion hits Australia’s autumn rains – says CSIRO
The SMH peddles this example of scaremongering by taxpayer funded science.
Unfortunately for the authors the last three Autumns have not followed their plan.
Autumn 2010 rain deciles
Autumn 2011 rain deciles
Autumn 2012 rain deciles
The world just not behaving for the warmistas.
Measuring BoM headline bias when introducing their 3 month temperature Outlooks
Let us look at the words in the BoM headlines announcing the last twelve three monthly temperature Outlooks.
I count the word ‘warm’ or ‘warmer’ used NINE times, the word ‘cooler’ was used ONCE and ‘mixed’ was used THREE times.
Here is a map for that same twelve month period
The continent has been mainly cooler than average.
The BoM clearly has a bias towards announcing ‘warm’ events.
I rest my case m’lud.
For list of 12 BoM headlines Continue reading Measuring BoM headline bias when introducing their 3 month temperature Outlooks
BoM night-time temperature 3 month Outlook about 5 degrees warmer than real world
They got the broad shape OK – but temperatures turned out about 5 degrees cooler than the BoM expected.
Now the real world below.
The max temp Outlook still exaggerated expected warmth but was pretty fair for Outlooks, and the rain Outlook was realistic – you can make maps to compare at this BoM page.
Australian Climate Commission presents selective picture of Queensland rain history
The Australian Climate Commission pdf paper – “THE CRITICAL DECADE Queensland climate impacts and opportunities” has a Figure 3 shown below.
Which shows how Queensland has become drier in the 1970-2011 period.
But taking another view of Queensland rain data – this BoM chart of Qld annual rain anomalies 1900 to 2011 shows the cyclic and erratic nature of Queensland rain. This chart also shows that the large brown areas in Qld on the Climate Commission Figure 3 for 1970-2011 are entirely due to the careful selection by the Climate Commission of 1970 as a starting point – the decade 1970-79 having the highest values for the 11 year average rain for over a century.
For another view of recent Qld rain checkout that map of Australian rain deciles for the past 36 months.
No shortage of rain anywhere in Queensland since 1 Nov 2009. So it pays to look at a variety of data sources to better understand the numbers behind what you are being told by GreenLabor and their propaganda organizations.
Australian Climate Commission bungles second temperature chart – already constructed for them by the BoM
Thanks to alert reader Dave see comment 8 below.
How could the Climate Commission get it worse than this ? See Figure 2 at the bottom of page 2 of their downloadable pdf get this while you can it is only 3.5MB. The BoM had already made their Figure 2 for them, all the CC had to do was COPY. Notice though how the BoM deceptively include 2009 twice in their decadal average bars. I have never before seen a “trick” like that. Like a new version of the “hide the decline” trick.
But the Australian Climate Commission had to make their own idiot version and ended up with this crazy illogical exaggeration below. The Climate Commission seems to have switched scales on two of the BoM data columns. Who is committing these appalling data processing mistakes ?
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The Australian Climate Commission should simply be disbanded. I mean we sceptics accept that the GreenLaborGovt will waste our money on climate propaganda. But we expect it to be half skilful and convincing.
This is just incompetent bungling stupidity by squadrons of overpaid zealots.
Disband the Australian Climate Commission NOW.
Australian Climate Commission bungles simple temperature anomaly chart
The Climate Commission has this downloadable pdf report “The Critical Decade – Queensland climate impacts and opportunities” – still available from their website.
Let me know if it goes offline and I can post my copy just downloaded today.
Canberra public servants will have flexed off for the weekend. It would take a miracle to fix this before Monday – but then Tuesday in Melbourne Cup day. Who knows when it will be fixed.
The very first graph on page 4 of 28.
As if the moving average can run OUTSIDE the data bars.
Does nobody proof-read these days. A proper chart could be made at this BoM page – the running average thing was not working for me just now. Thanks to readers who emailed this gem.
Australian BoM bites bullet and calls off 2012 El Nino prediction – “…biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.”
That is a big call – like many I have been watching the SOI unable to make up its mind. Anyway – read what the Bureau of Meteorology is saying.
“Forecasters surprised by El Nino turnaround” on ABC news
Pacific’s late retreat to neutral considered unusual – Bom official statement 23 October 2012
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Main page for dear old BoM.
Surprising wording in NIWA affidavit re BoM’s work – filed in New Zealand court case
Originally posted Feb 2012 – taken down late March due legal reasons.
For newcomers – about a year ago I lodged a FOI request with the BoM to see documents relating to a “peer review” they had conducted for NIWA and I reported last May when the BoM decided that all the documents were secret.
Then last October I posted a progress report when the BoM found a few more documents from earlier in October 2010 than previous.
I currently have an appeal in with the OAIC.
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition NZCSC has a long running court action underway against NIWA trying to obtain documents relating to the “official” NZ temperature history. The Climate Conversation site has much information on the court case.
I was sent me several NIWA affidavits from 2011 – the affidavit for 5 July 2011 is noteworthy as it contains some clauses showing that NIWA is trying to be specific about what the BoM has done. I quote from Clause 7 – “….the Bureau did not itself produce any peer review report…”
NIWA is saying that all that took place was a to & fro process of emailed comments and replies about material provided by NIWA – “iterative” as they say at the start of clause 7.
I note in the TM5 undated (April 2011) legal letter from the BoM to NIWA – in 2-2 it says “The review covering letter and final report…”
We have the covering letter public (14 Dec 2010 letter linked above) – but is NIWA now saying about the “final report” – that there is no such thing ?
List of six pdf court documents
Note the odd fact that whoever drafted the NIWA affidavits wrongly labels themselves in clause 1 by stating – “I am the plaintiff’s general counsel” The cover pages show NIWA is the defendant in these proceedings. Anyway – on with the list.
[1] Letter from NZ Ombudsman to NZCSC knocking them back June 2010.
[2] My 18 Feb 11 FOI letter to BoM – sent by BoM to NIWA in April – also attached is the 14 Dec 10 BoM public covering letter to NIWA.
[3] Legal letter from BoM to NIWA asking them for the “right stuff” to help BoM keep all the docs secret in Australia.
[4] Legal letter NIWA to BoM complying chapter and verse.
[5] Affidavit from NIWA 1 July 2011
[6] Affidavit from NIWA 5 July 2011 – with the fascinating clause 7.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology plays God by altering Adelaide historic temperature data – Frostgate 2
Lance Pidgeon raises a fascinating issue in his comment on my Frostgate 1 thread where he points out a report in The (Adelaide) Advertiser for 4 July 1933 that the 3rd July 1933 was the “COLDEST MORNING THIS YEAR”.
It is interesting here to check what the various BoM versions record for this frost event.
This segment of spreadsheet shows the BoM standard minimum readings in Celsius – with their latest (March 2012) adjusted & perfected ACORN data alongside. We see that for the 3 July ACORN reads 1.7 – OK but note how the 30 June in ACORN now reads 1.6 – which rewrites Adelaide history as recorded by the Advertiser that the 3 July was “COLDEST MORNING THIS YEAR”. The red A marks the day of The Advertiser article we are referring to – and the red NR marks the new “COLDEST MORNING THIS YEAR”.
How does the BoM possibly know now in 2012 that the 30 June 1933 was a colder morning at West Terrace Adelaide than 3 July ? Denying the evidence of the BoMs own standard temperature data read by expert observers at its South Australian Regional Office. This playing God with our temperature history can not be justified.
And while we are looking at the Differences Raw minus ACORN – how on earth can the BoM justify these constantly varying adjustments ?
How do they know that on the 6th July the 10.2 recorded was EXACTLY correct for all time ? While all the other morning readings from 20th June to 10th July were faulty by greatly varying amounts.