Category Archives: IPCC

Atmospheric science, IPCC

The Royal Society and the “dead hand of consensus”

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Contributed by Bob Foster

There is no one “contrarian view” on climate change – nor should there be. What is needed, surely, is a ferment of ideas – each judged on its intrinsic merit, and not just on the status of its proposer – to serve collectively as a contra to the dead hand of consensus, which currently strangles thinking in climate-change science. Anyone who believes that the science of climate is already resolved is either naïve, or has confused science with politics. No-one understands climate in all crucial aspects.

An eminently plausible hypothesis is that Earth does not journey in an empty universe. Neither does it enjoy a self-contained climate – stable until only now disturbed by people burning fossil fuels. Correlations suggest that the primary driver of our ever-changing climate, from the multi-millennial time-scale right down to that better called weather, is extra-terrestrial.

Crucially, the timing of future solar/planetary influences can be calculated; and if the Sun keeps playing by the rules, the next Little Ice Age cold period will be fully developed by 2030. People suffered terribly in the Maunder Minimum.

Continue reading The Royal Society and the “dead hand of consensus” →

IPCC, News and Views

“BOINCing” to Oblivion

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In February 2005 Coolwire 11 commented on the ridiculous Oxford University based mass clinate modelling experiment where people all over the world (no doubt mainly in taxpayer-funded places) engaged thousands of PCs to run modelling software. Results were reported back to HQ and all sorts of wild speculative claims about future warming have been made in the media from late 2004 based on these dubious numbers.

Now we hear that in a massive "mea culpa", the group’s "head honcho" has had to admit to major errors in their programs.

Continue reading “BOINCing” to Oblivion →

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends.

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San Juan was studied in the 1980’s by C.E Duchon who published in 1986, "Temperature Trends at San Juan, Puerto Rico, Bull.Amer.Met.Soc. 67, 1370-1377. A downloadable pdf file of this paper is available through BAMS. Click on Print Version for Duchon, Claude E.

My 20th Anniversary Review of Jones et al 1986 explores how San Juan was specifically mentioned in Wood’s 1988 critique of Jones et al 1986. The issue of San Juan was elucidated in the Wigley & Jones reply to Wood 1988 see point (5) in my Table listing the sparring between Wood and Wigley & Jones.
Continue reading San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends. →

Atmospheric science, IPCC

How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ?

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This post is to highlight conclusions from a 1998 paper by Sherwood B Idso in Vol 10: 69-82 of Climate Research, "CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate".


Sherwood Idso finds that a consensus of 8 natural experiments he describes is that for a doubling of carbon dioxide to 600ppm, the global temperature might rise at most by 0.4 degrees C.
To save blog space the links below take readers to the relevant sections of an html version of Sherwood Idso’s paper.

Continue reading How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ? →

Atmospheric science, IPCC, News and Views, Surface Record

Little agreement with BoM claims 2005 was Australia’s hottest year

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The Australian BoM has made much media fanfare with its claims that 2005 has been Australia’s hottest year. Coolwire 17 points out that the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of Norwich, long quoted by the IPCC and the Universit of Alabama at Huntsville group compiling satellite data for the lower troposphere, both produce anomaly maps showing 1998 was warmer for Australia. 

The NASA GISS group do agree with the BoM that 1998 was warmer than 2005 but they quote data from 1 Nov 2004 to 30 Nov 2005, not calendar 2005. However we count that as a point for the BoM.

GISS, IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Satellite global temperature trends; still much less warming than Jones and GISS

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There is a tendency around to claim that satellite Lower Troposphere (LT) T trends now agree with Jones et al (land & sea) and GISS land based trends. 
But this is not so.
Trend differences of circa 0.047 C per decade are huge when viewed against the claims by Jones et al / IPCC of only 0.05 C UHI contamination over the century plus surface record.  For graphic and details. Continue reading Satellite global temperature trends; still much less warming than Jones and GISS →

GISS, IPCC, News and Views, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

How NASA GISS inserts warming into USA rural T data

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Trawling through files from 2001 I came across this rare example of an email from Dr Jim Hansen that actually gives an insight into what GISS does with temperature data.
For background I have my page commenting on Jones et al use of Miami.
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/miami.htm
Then my page on the five degree grid cell covering much of Florida and commenting on Jones 1994 additions.
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/florida.htm
Then this page commenting on GISS data which inserts warming into rural data west of Miami.
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/giss_fl.htm

Continue reading How NASA GISS inserts warming into USA rural T data →

IPCC, News and Views

NZ dumps carbon tax

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Is this the second sensible counter Kyoto step by a “First World” government that has signed on to the mess ? After Tony Blair harmed Kyoto a few weeks ago that is.
Read in NZ Herald of 21 December

Dumping of carbon tax delights business, angers Greens

The Government’s decision to ditch the proposed carbon tax has been backed by the business community, but slammed by the Greens who called it a “capitulation” to vested interests.

Climate Change Minister David Parker announced today that the tax, designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and due to come into effect in April 2007, would not go ahead.

Officials are being asked to look at other options.

It had been claimed that the tax would harm businesses and cost households between $4 and $10 a week.

Business leaders said today’s decision was sensible.

See also Oct 2005 Coolwire 13, “A campaign is developing to get NZ out of the Kyoto accord.”

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

End of year alteration shenanigans at CRU

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I have just added a line on Coolwire 16 to weird goings on at the CRU Climate Monitor website re deletions of 2005 gridded data images from March 2005 on.
IMHO it looks as if they wanted to see if 2005 could be a candidate for Hottest year ever. I know others have noticed this CRU habit long before this Blog.
No shame at all.
Caught out with their own date stamps. Check it out for yourself, please let me know when March 2005 on are replaced.