Category Archives: BoM Australia

Weather Bureau for Australia

October in Australia cooling off after record September heat

Interesting that if you make maps of “Maximum Anomaly” and “Minimum Anomaly” for various periods, 1 day and 1 week – then click on the Earlier or Later button – you can see that the heat of September has lessened as we hit mid October.
Also I note both Adelaide and Melbourne have had near average temperatures for October so far.

Sydney weather forecast gets less accurate one day before hot day

On Tuesday 8 Oct 2013 the Sydney Morning Herald reported – NSW temperatures may hit 40 degrees on Thursday prompting extreme fire warnings – In the article it says – Sydney is forecast to reach 37 degrees – Although the photo at the top of the article carried the misleading caption – Hot in the city: Sydney is likely to swelter on Thursday with temperatures predicted to reach 40 degrees.

Then on 9 Oct 2013 SMH has a headline – Sydney weather forecast revised to 39 degrees – Much mention in the article of high wind speeds including 100k gusts at Huskisson – yet no gust was recorded at Nowra or Point Perpendicular exceeding 70k.

So what actually happened on Thursday the 10th –
Sydney temperatures were 2° below forecast –
Canberra, Goulburn, Wagga Wagga, Albury were all 2° below forecast.
Further west temperatures were closer to forecasts
No wind gust was recorded at Nowra or Point Perpendicular exceeding 70k – what happened to the 100k figure that was concerning fire people?
Overall an inaccurate scaremongering updated forecast on the 9th.
Here is yesterdays effort at the SMH posted early evening – Sydney weather: heat to continue before big drop
What would be a rational statement about Sydney weather on 10 Oct 2013 – a very hot day in October similar but not quite as hot as some previous October days over a century or more ? And of course all of the BoM and media comment makes no mention that the ever expanding Sydney urban heat island could have had any effect at all yesterday.

September 2013 was the warmest monthly anomaly in Australian mean temperature history – but anomalous winds contributed to this

We have all seen or heard on the media that “sweaty September” has been our warmest month ever – see “Australia in September 2013” from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)

I wrote to William Kininmonth ex BoM Senior Meteorologist(link to bio notes) – and asked if variations in the jet stream were affecting Australian climate.
He replied drawing my attention to this BoM map of September wind anomalies.

BOM archives monthly mean and anomaly charts at 850, 500 and 200hP.
September had an anomalous high sitting over SE Australia drawing in warm
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bringing in warm/cool air coincided with the regions of warm/cool
temperature anomaly respectively. It would seem that the driver for the
temperature anomaly was the blocking situation, not global warming.
Mr Kininmonth has said he will answer questions here – and I wanted to add that his bio notes above came from the recent book he co-authored – Taxing Air

BoM 3 month Australian climate prediction Outlooks July to September 2013 – mostly exactly wrong again

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) carries on with the seemingly impossible task of every month predicting the odds of exceeding median temperatures, both day and night, plus the odds of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months. Results for the temperature Outlooks July to September have been as bad as I can recall. Actual temperatures turned out often to be the reverse of what was forecast.
It is high time the Federal Govt told the BoM to cease this waste of taxpayers money publishing the Outlooks, wasting taxpayers money for over a decade. Set the staff involved to more productive work for Australia or fire them – simple.
Prediction of the odds of exceeding median maximum (day-time) temperatures –

Actual weather result in anomalies – hot where it should have been cool centrally and nearer average around the coast and Tasmania where it should have been very hot.

Prediction of the odds of exceeding median minimum (night-time) temperatures –

Actual weather result in anomalies – hot where it should have been cool or average centrally and nearer average around the coast, even cool anomalies in the north, then Tasmania where it was above average but should have been hotter.

Temperature Outlooks here – make maps of recent actual temperatures here
You can check rainfall Outlook and actual rainfall for yourself.

Error reporting September rain in Perth

This Yahoo news item 23 Sep 2013 – Strong winds bring down trees and powerlines in Perth and South West – says at the end – [The Bureau of Meteorology says the front will hit early this evening and last most of the night.
The Perth metropolitan area has recorded its wettest September for more than 90 years.
So far this month Perth has recorded 129 millimetres of rain – making it the wettest September since 1923.]
There is a major error in those last two sentences and I find it amazing that such a simple issue as rainfall can get so garbled – particularly in the Perth media. Many 10 year old children with a www connection and a copy of Excel could provide Yahoo with relevant basic rainfall statistics.
Here is a list of the wettest Septembers for Perth – both Perth Metro (1993-current) and Perth Regional Office (1876-1992). Chris Gillham has information about BoM Perth weather stations.

The ridiculous statements on Yahoo completely ignore the fact that in September 1973 Perth had 146mm rain – so that is the first “record” hurdle that 2013 has to jump.
Then in 1971 September saw 183.8mm rain and it will take truly exceptional rain for the rest of this month to top that.
So where does Yahoo get their 90 years from ??
I notice that on 19 Sep PerthNow had a factual article – Perth on track for wettest September in 40 years.
So it is puzzling that a few days later Yahoo come up with their nonsense.
It is also worth noting that in my reading for this article I never saw Perth Hills rain referred to – yet that has such economic importance for Perth water supply. Of course Perth Hills rain is much higher than Perth rain. Somebody has the Perth media well trained.

BoM claims Australia has had warmest 12 month period – not supported by some NASA and NOAA temperature data September 2012 to August 2013

Ken Stewart and Jo Nova have reported on the BoM claim. BoM mean T data for the 12 months September 2012 to August 2013 was the warmest on record for their dataset. You can not make a 12 month average of your choice – I downloaded all monthly anomaly timeseries and built a full timeseries of monthly anomalies from 1910-2013.
The only “international” surface temperature data I can find updated through August is GHCN CAMS from KNMI ClimateExplorer. Then we also have the NASA lower troposphere satellite data from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) commented on by Ken and Jo. It is clear from the graphic that the BoM claim is not robust.

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Over the decades the 12 month average “Australian mean temperature” oscillates in a cyclic fashion between warm and cool anomalies. The BoM opportunistically feeds media headlines when times are warm but is silent on the issue when times are cool.

Fairfax media trumpets very marginal claim by the BoM that winter 2013 across Victoria made a record for warm mean temperatures

The BoM feeds out this information knowing media mates will beat the thing up even further – as in this paean to warming – Warm winter caps nation’s hottest year – September 2, 2013 – Tim Colebatch, Peter Hannam
Here is a screenshot from a BoM webpage showing how marginal this claim is.

You have to love the warmists – they take a very marginal result from Victoria which when I last looked makes up 2.95% of the Australian total area. Then roll that over into all manner of warmist statements about this or that part of Australia – or this or that timespan – or this or that temperature metric.
To read more Continue reading Fairfax media trumpets very marginal claim by the BoM that winter 2013 across Victoria made a record for warm mean temperatures

BoM claims of warmest winter ever in Canberra based on Airport urban heated data

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) makes another dubious claim – in refusing to accept the very significant urban heat island (UHI) effect in their Canberra Airport temperature data. Simple checks of nearby stations show the 2013 winter was not the warmest ever in Tuggeranong (Canberra southern suburbs) – Burrinjuck Dam, Braidwood and Cooma. And at Goulburn AP the 2013 winter was warmest – but not at Goulburn TAFE which recorded four warmer years back to 1996.

I have feelers out to find other Canberra data – if anybody knows of a source please pass on.
Table of average winter daytime temperatures – red marks years warmer than 2013.

The two Canberra stations are because the old Canberra Airport site at Fairbairn was moved south in 2009 due to nearby construction at Fairbairn. Ignoring completely the massive construction around the commercial terminals since before 2000.
I have a story from 2010 –
Evidence for a strong urbanization signal; 0.3 degrees C per decade in Canberra Airport temperature data 1997-2009 But I like the Floriade story below.
Canberra’s warm winter record could lead to hottest start to spring
August 30, 2013 – Hamish Boland-Rudder
Sun, rain: it’s all a capital idea – 31 August 2013 – Hamish Boland-Rudder
Floriade ‘unaffected’ by warmest winter on record – Kathleen Dyett – Mon 2 Sep 2013

Australian Bureau of Meteorology lacking required scientific balance in reporting warmest July for Melbourne – record warmth was confined mainly to inner urban “heat island”

BoM inspired media reports have widely spread the news that July 2013 in Melbourne was the warmest on record – most seem to be quoting daytime or maximum temperatures. here are a few articles –
Sydney Morning Herald
Herald Sun
ABC Online news

I recall seeing an article that did mention the ever expanding Melbourne “urban heat island” (UHI). I quick check of July mean max for the following outer Melbourne weather stations indicates that outside the centre of Melbourne July in 1975 was warmer than July 2013. The record July 2013 warmth seems confined to the Melbourne UHI. Checking BoM data histories here and getting July 2013 data from here, select your station then follow the “Recents Months at…” links

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Melbourne Airport BoM# 86282 – July 2013 14.7 – July 1975 15.1
Frankston BoM# 86079 – July 2013 14.2 – July 1975 14.8

Other Victorian stations to have July 1975 – or July from several other years, warmer than July 2013 are, Echuca Airport BoM# 80015, Rutherglen Research Station BoM# 82039, East Sale Airport BoM# 85072, Ouyen Post Office BoM# 76047, Omeo BoM# 83025.

Surely any balanced media release from the BoM should have recognized the restricted and man-driven nature of their Melbourne claim.

Claim of warmest July ever for Canberra fails to pass elementary checks

The mainstream media TV weather news and press has been spouting the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) claim that July was the warmest ever in Canberra with a mean monthly max of 13.3. Yet you only have to check early 20th Century data from Queanbeyan to see the claim is dubious. Data from BoM.

Queanbeyan recorded the same 13.3 in July 1924 and 1937. This pill viagra prescription price is composed by plantain seed, talcum, fringed pink, polygonum aviculare, red flower, red peony root, herba houttuyniae, cowherb seed etc. The inflammation does viagra 20mg india not occur in the muscle wall of arteries but in the inner ‘Intima Media’. It is viagra online doctor noteworthy to mention that erectile dysfunction can also be caused due to several emotional and psychological reasons. All you need for this is a proper cure to the issue? The issue of erectile dysfunction can be defined as a person’s inability to sustain or maintain his erection for longer time or period. levitra without prescription OK so Qbn was no doubt UHI affected to some extent – but probably no more so than Canberra Airport is now. So given the poor quality of data from weather stations – the best you could claim about July is that it was warm and probably similar to a few other July’s in the past 100 years. As I have said a few times, everything the BoM says needs examining with a fine toothed comb.