Weather Bureau for Australia
If you make maps here for maximum and minimum anomalies – period one week – you can see the extent of cool anomalies.
The first 10 days of December look to have been cooler than average.
You read it first here.
Contrast this reality with the amount of talk about heat you hear on TV weather segments.
Compare the Outlooks at the archives here –
The maximum anomaly result (day time) is worse than the minimum (night time).
Both temperature outlooks have the broad shape wrong – you could describe the outlooks contour maps as concave with higher temperatures predicted around the coast – whereas real world results tended to be convex with higher temperatures more central.
For rainfall select deciles – make sure you get the correct 3 month period.
Your taxes at work.
On October 16 I posted – October in Australia cooling off after record September heat. That trend has carried on with November being cooler than October.
Australia has seen a series of record 12 month running average warm mean temperatures.
Each monthly BoM statement discusses the above. The data for my graphic is obtained here – Australian climate variability & change – Time series graphs
I am curious if there are meteorological explanations for the three similar sharp mean temperature peaks in 2005, 2009, 2013.
Running a check on BoM Outlooks for the two 3 monthly periods –
Jul to Sep and Aug to Oct. Temperature Outlook archive here Rainfall Outlook archive here – All links should open in a new window.
National temperature outlook Jul Sep 2013 max and min temperatures
Jul Sep max T actual anomalies
Jul Sep min T actual anomalies
National temperature outlook Aug Oct 2013 max and min temperatures
Aug Oct max T actual anomalies
Aug Oct min T actual anomalies
The temperature Outlooks tend to be exactly the wrong shape – high around the coastal rim and low in the centre – exactly opposite to the real world anomalies.
Remembering the huge media publicity recently about record heat across Australia in September 2013 – it is inexplicable that the BoM Outlooks did not see the record September heat coming.
Jul Sep rain Outlook
Jul Sep rain actual deciles
Aug Oct rain Outlook
Aug Oct rain actual deciles
I will say it again, BoM seasonal Outlooks are so unreliable and useless the BoM should abandon producing the time-wasters. Put precious taxpayer resources to better use or just save the money.
I first heard this on ABC radio this morning – then this headline appeared online – Drought-affected grazier in western Queensland says shooting cattle the only humane option. Including this quote – “…xxxxxx’s station near Hughenden, east of Mount Isa, has not seen decent rain for three years…”
This panel of 3 maps shows rain deciles for three 12 monthly periods –
on left 1 Nov 2010 – 31 Oct 2011 – in centre 1 Nov 2011 – 31 Oct 2012 – on right – 1 Nov 2012 – 31 Oct 2013
How does the ABC publish – “…has not seen decent rain for three years…” – when the facts are so easy to check online.
Obviously the last 12 month period has seen widespread drought in Queensland – but the first two years had a lot of average and above average rain.
What do readers think of this ?
Does anybody feel the need for more information other than weather forecasts we access every day now ?
Smells to me like just another way to beat up normal very hot days.
Reported by Fairfax – New heatwave alert system to help save lives – Nov 7, 2013 – Peter Hannam
On 4th & 5th November 2013 – you read it first here. Previous two consecutive subzero days were in 1939.
I have tried searching this in Google but nothing turns up. So I am wondering if the Bureau of Meteorology has said anything.
Would we have heard if it had been a two consecutive hottest days record ?
I think so.
For my money – crystal clear evidence of bias in the BoM.
Heard this on TV news last night – Chilly November nights for southern NSW and ACT
The ACT saw some of the coldest temperatures, with Canberra Airport dipping to -1.5 degrees, its coldest November night since 1970.
Channel 9 TV, Weatherzone and the BoM have been claiming Brisbane, Sydney and the Hunter experienced a record hot October. Weatherzone is quoted here in the Blacktown Sun. The ABC quotes the BoM for its story – Hottest October on record for Hunter.
However a quick check of monthly max historic BoM data shows most of the claims of all time warm records for October are either wrong or not robust.
Brisbane 040913 which averaged 28.8 in the middle of large and growing urban heat island, is a short term station with October data only from 2000.
A more reliable guide to the region would be Brisbane Aero 40842 which recorded 26.8 and equalled that in 2004. But the older Brisbane Aero 40223 with data from 1950 recorded 28.3 in 1988.
Amberley with a longer continuous record averaged 30.9 last month but 31.5 in 1988.
So there are two stations with less urban data than the centre of Brisbane which both confirm October 2013 was not a record warm month.
In the case of Sydney, the news items said the centre of the city did not qualify – despite the monster urban heat island. That should have been a red flag – but did not stop a trawl for some high number in western s8uburbs data not known for long term station sites.
Parramatta North (Masons Drive) 66124 last month 27.0 but in 1988 was 28.9 – Weatherzone should take more time over their checking.
In the Hunter there were patches where 2013 had the hottest October – eg Cessnock and Williamtown but at several other sites this was not so.
Newcastle Nobbys 25.2 last month but 25.3 Oct 1988
Newcastle University 27.3 last month but 27.5 Oct 2002
Scone Airport read 28.8 last month but only has data from 1992 – Scone Philip St recorded 29.6 in 1907, 28.9 in 1910, 32.3 in 1919, 29.3 in 1940, 28.9 in 1988.
Jerrys Plains Post Office 61086 has a long record in the Hunter – and last month recorded 29.2 but read 30.8 in 1907, 29.2 in 1912, 29.2 in 1915, 29.5 in 1922, 29.3 in 1926 & 27, 29.5 in 1936, 30.5 in 1940, 30.8 in 1944, 29.5 in 1988, 30.1 in 2002 and 29.3 in 2007.
So I think Weatherzone and BoM memories are too often too short.
Anybody noticing “hot October” claims in their areas.
Forecast 28°
– weather turned out 25°
Apologies – I initially posted the forecast at 35deg which was wrong – it was 28.
The 35 degrees is tomorrow, Wednesday.
– In January I commented on an 8° fail. Australian Bureau of Meteorology Sydney temperature forecast 12 Jan 2013 – another amazing failure
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Fascinating to check tonight what gets said on TV weather news.
Sydney region forecast link –
Actual weather link – several days are kept.