Category Archives: BoM Australia

Weather Bureau for Australia

More series to consider re question has the Australian land temperature seen its hottest 12 months ever

These 12 month average trends show a strong cyclic influence on Australian temperatures. GISS, GHCN CAMS and NCDC land data are now updated at KNMI.

GISS supports the BoM which finds the 12 month average mean temperature over Australia has been warmer than ever over recent months.
NCDC finds that periods in 2005 and 2010 had a warmer 12 month average.
GHCN CAMS find warmer 12 month periods in 2005.
The two satellite series have warmer periods in the past than late 2013.
At the end of 2013 the BoM trend is under GISS.

Alasdair Hainsworth from the Bureau of Meteorology predicts four days in mid-30’s or above for Tasmania – another BoM exaggeration

This was on the ABC TV 7.30 Report Monday 13 Jan 2014
[Alasdair Hainsworth from the Bureau of Meteorology: For this time of year yes, it’s not unusual. The unusual part about it is probably the longevity of the heatwave, particularly through southern Victoria and also Tasmania.

Tasmania receiving four days in a row with temperatures in excess of the mid-30s, high-30s even into southern parts of south eastern Tasmania. That’s really very unusual indeed.

So yeah, the extreme nature of it and the longevity of those extreme temperatures is somewhat unusual.]

Now to check this out click on the various climate districts on the map – does not take long to quickly scroll down through the green rainfall data and check out how those days Tuesday 14th to Friday 17th fared. Mostly there are few temperature stations to eyeball. My impression is that for majority of sites Tuesday was the standout hot day and the next 3 mostly failed the BoM test. Readers will make their own mind up.
Remember this is the same Alasdair Hainsworth who on 18 December predicted – Heatwave expected to hit one-third of Australia over Christmas – a prediction which miserably sunk without trace.

Another warmist prediction bites the dust – Canberra four days over 40° fails in 2014 but 1939 heatwave was hotter and longer

The ABC reports – ACT under total fire ban as mercury soars – quoting Sean Carson from the Bureau of Meteorology who says – “By the time we reach Saturday we might have seen four days in a row in the ACT greater than 40 degrees, something we’ve never seen before in Canberra’s history,”

Bad luck Sean the 4 days 15th to 18th went – 40.2, 40.1, 39.7, 40.
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So we see an example in the ABC News Watch analysis where warmists conveniently do not know our history.

Are you aware that a cool anomaly over Northern Australia in part balances the current heatwave?

Do you hear this on the media? That taken Australia wide we have a cool anomaly in the north balancing to some extent the heatwave anomaly in the south east. So the continent as a whole does not have much of a warm anomaly on the 16th.

You can have fun making these anomaly maps at this useful BoM site – choose max or min & various periods. If you look at max and min anomalies for the weeks ending 7 Jan and 14 Jan – just eyeball the colours – IMHO Australia has not had a very high warm anomaly for the first half of Jan.
I read somewhere that the cool anomaly marks an area of descending air – hopefully we get an expert to comment.

This national radar image from 615am AEDT 18 Jan shows a low pressure system rotating into the deep interior – interesting to see Australia is not all heatwaves. Click on National Radar Loop here.
Forecast track at WeatherStreet.com here.

Minister Hunt should require the Bureau of Meteorology to be less excited in its output

Andrew Bolt has said what many of us know – that over-hyped warmist propaganda about heat waves is blitzing the media. – What’s hot is the alarmism back home
The prevalence of ridiculous sensationalist language such as boiling, roasting and sizzling to describe hot summer weather that has manifested many times in our history, should be discouraged.
For a start the Minister should insist that – weather forecasts should be archived and any additional statements made by the BoM and its personnel must be archived as media releases. That includes no phone calls, emails whatever – any additional output must be archived as media releases.
Under my suggested scheme the BoM can say what it likes but the content must be official, on-record and checkable.
I wonder what readers think – is media of our current heat wave balanced ?

The BoM much trumpeted claim that 2013 was our hottest year is less than robust because some global climate groups disagree

Checking the Bureau of Meteorology claim against data from various global climate research groups available at KNMI Climate Explorer shows that not all support the BoM claim.

CRUT4, GISS and NCDC are not yet available through December but will check as they become available to end 2013. The BoM might have some support there.

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Note my December 2013 post highlighting the warming drift 2005-2006 in UAH compared to RSS. In the chart it is plain that UAH is badly out of step at 2006.

I also posted –

Brisbane tipped to hit 41° on 4 Jan 2014 but reality was 38.7°

Typical headline beating up what is normal hot weather.

Reality not so glam. for the warmists.
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For over a week now I have been puzzled by TV weather ladies talking about 50° here and there at places back of the black stump. Has anybody seen a 50° clock in anywhere yet. I suppose it must happen sometime – after all the BoM adjusted their map scales to go over 50.

Satellites disagree with BoM that September 2013 was a record hot month for Australia

We have all seen and heard the media blitz on the subject – 2013 was hottest year on record in Australia, Bureau of Meteorology says
Most of us have little idea of the extent to which the BoM ACORN SAT temperature series has older data adjusted cooler to increase the warming trend.
This chart shows the monthly mean temperature ACORN SAT data that the BoM rely upon for their statements and shows the strongly cyclic nature of the 12 month average.

RSS satellites measure brightness temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere (TLT) – that thin skin of air centred on about 2 to 3km high. It is interesting that the rankings of the anomalies for the hottest months over Australia from the BoM go, Sep 2013 2.75 – Apr 2005 2.66 – Aug 2009 2.47.
However when you make global temperature anomaly maps for the RSS satellites lower troposhere series and eyeball the maps – the ranking looks to be – Aug 2009 hottest – Apr 2005 2nd hottest and Sep 2013 3rd hottest.
Aug 2009

Apr 2005

Sep 2013

RSS do not publish an Australian anomaly time series.
I put these maps up to show that all might not be as cut and dried as the BoM would have you believe.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology replaces the century old Melbourne Regional Office weather observation site in the Melbourne CBD

They are launching a new Melbourne weather observation site at Olympic Park – surrounded on two sides by tarmac car parks. And of course a freeway just out of view behind the photographer.

I enjoyed how the BoM manages to write 309 words on the subject yets avoids the term “urban heat island”. IMHO it is quite possible that the new site could warm due to increasing urban effects at a faster rate than the old.

“Heatwave expected to hit one-third of Australia over Christmas” – Bureau of Meteorology dud prediction on 18 December 2013

It looks clear there will be no Christmas heat wave of any significance this Christmas. Here is the BoM prediction – Heatwave expected to hit one-third of Australia over Christmas – If you check forecasts for your region of SE Australia you can see what an utter dud the BoM is.

I am calling for reports on how this is going – buckled railway lines – whatever. Can people please call in temperatures in their regions, thanks. You can check maximum temperature anomalies for past days or weeks etc here.
[The BOM’s assistant director of weather services, Alasdair Hainsworth, says the heatwave could last for about a week.
“Unfortunately it is going to be be a fairly protracted period of hot weather,” he said.
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Mr Hainsworth warns that Christmas travel plans may be disrupted.]

I am offering a prize for the first report of buckled railway line up to and including Friday 27 Dec – the BoM Memorial Sixpack of Aldi White Wine – winner can choose any variety up to $5 per bottle, you can collect at your nearest ALDI.