The media have been hyperventilating over the Indian Summer in Sydney – but this story took the cake – Sydney to register hottest May day in 95 years with temps tipped to hit 28C as May ‘heatwave’ lingers –
In fact Wednesday the 27th saw Sydney reach 24°C – a 4 degree fail for the BoM.
OK forecasting is fraught.
SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL) (066062) looks headed for an all time record warm May – the previous record was 1958 – but how widespread is this record warmth.
This table shows that this month Sydney Airport is about equal with May 1958 but at Richmond RAAF this month is well down on May 1958.
Can anybody find another Sydney site which has this month warmer than May 1958? Two sites to check – BoM – AWN
Category Archives: BoM Australia
Weather Bureau for Australia
Claims of record warm days in May lack scientific balance – Melbourne and the 11 days consecutive over 20°C
SMH news item quoting the BoM – Melbourne’s record warm spell may stretch into June – no mention of urban heat island (UHI) site issues at Melbourne Regional Office 86071. Recently the BoM commenced weather recordings at Olympic Park station#86338 which will eventually replace the highly urbanized current site Melbourne Regional Office station#86071
Yes that is where they are claiming a warmth record – in the face of 150 odd years of urbanization feeding warmth into weather data.
Ignoring that the new site at Olympic Park 86338 which is still central to a huge urban heat island but is slightly less UHI affected than 86071 – only saw 9 days over 20 up to the 21st May.
Thanks to Geoff Sherrington who sent in this gem of Nelsonian telescope use.- Geoff also mentioned these 1904 & 1866 warm spells that except for minor gaps show that weather experienced by Melburnians has changed little in 149 years.
The BoM ACORN SAT dataset disaster rolls on – fatal minimum>maximum errors can not be repaired until “second half of 2014”
I recall ACORN SAT was birthed in early 2012 – during 2012 climate researcher Ed Thurstan found ~1000 instances where the daily min exceeded the daily max.
Pretty much evidence that the entire ACORN adjustment process had fatal flaws I would have thought.
Remember these ~1000 min>max errors would just be the visible population of errors – like the visible “tip of the iceberg”.
Amazing that the BoM with their colossal computing facilities failed to check ACORN SAT for basic errors such as min>max before launch.
Fast forward to 1 July 2013 and we see a BoM staffer Dr Blair Trewin responding on the Tamino blog 1 July 2013 on the issue that ACORN-SAT has adjusted many hundreds of daily minimums so they exceed the daily max. This makes for an “internal inconsistency” according to Dr Trewin – and to fix this he said and I quote – “…so in the next version of the data set (later this year), in cases where the adjusted max < adjusted min, we’ll set both the max and min equal to the mean of the two.”
I was surprised when downloading ACORN data in March and April to see these errors still there – I mean how hard can it be for the BoM to repair ACORN SAT and crunch out a new version.
Maybe too hard.
On 30 April I emailed the Director of the BoM
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Here is his reply page 1 –
Page 2 –
Where he avoids the issue that the standout min>max errors are just the visible “tip of the iceberg”.
Anyway all will be fixed in “second half of 2014” nearly three years after the birth of ACORN SAT.
Once again amazing that near two years from these errors being found by Ed Thurstan and the BoM is still promulgating this error ridden ACORN SAT dataset.
Simply staggering.
And remember ACORN SAT was “peer reviewed” by the great and the good of IPCC climate science.
BoM ACORN version for Giles has three days where the minimum has been adjusted to be greater than the maximum
Ed Thurstan picked up on these odd ACORN errors in early 2013 – so thanks to Ed for his spreadsheet. He has found about a thousand of these daily errors in ACORN – approx 8 or 9 per station on average, some better than others. Here are the 3 days from You can be really satisfied if you choose our company for the best zipper bags and other variety of bags. news viagra for free Hence, talk to your doctor and find out the fundamental cause behind the problem. drscoinc.com/state/maryland/ cheap viagra The condition can be caused by various factors that include psychological and physical conditions. buy levitra from canada After filling, tighten the cap and brand levitra in usa Recommended pharmacy store make sure it is used after consulting a medical professional. Giles marked with pink X – and the days either side.
Just remember these nonsense data were created by the BoM much ballyhooed ACORN process, peer reviewed by the great and the good of climate science – and the BoM has had 15 months to correct their dubious creation.
Giles ACORN daily minimum adjustments for 1997
This is addition to my post a few days ago – Even Giles minimums adjusted in BoM ACORN “Roll Royce adjusted to warm more” temperature dataset –
I thought it might help to home in on 1997 which was the last year of ACORN adjustments – for some reason Giles BoM staffers achieved perfection on 1 Jan 1998 and except for a few days rejected by ACORN maintained accuracy to end 2013.
This chart shows Giles 013017 ACORN adjusted temperature minus daily minumums for 1997. Remember that there were no ACORN SAT adjustments to raw maximum readings.
On 301 days BoM professional observers read the minimum temperature too warm – on 6 days they got the reading exactly right and on 58 days they read the minimums too cool.
We must remember that the BoM staffs the Giles Meteorological Office – these are not amateur part time instrument readers. So these numerous and often large errors as recently as 1997 take a bit of getting in perspective.
This chart shows the ACORN minus raw numbers sorted and an interesting result emerges that the zero change bin is very small.
I am no statistician but would not these adjustments be expected to show a normal distribution? If so the 0 bin should be larger – similar to the bins either side.
Even Giles minimums adjusted in BoM ACORN “Rolls Royce adjusted to warm more” temperature dataset
Nothing is sacred – no temperature data is immune from the warmist tampering by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in their ACORN SAT highly warming fabricated dataset. The max has not been adjusted in ACORN
Giles must be one of the most remote weather stations on Planet Earth.
Continue reading Even Giles minimums adjusted in BoM ACORN “Rolls Royce adjusted to warm more” temperature dataset
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) blatantly inserts warming into their ACORN version of long term rural station Rutherglen 82039 from northern Victoria
The BoM say of Rutherglen:
This site is an automatic weather station located on the grounds of a research farm, about 7 km southeast of Rutherglen and well outside the town area, on flat ground over grass (farm paddocks) but with low hills a few hundred metres to the north. A gravel road (carrying farm traffic only) is a few metres to the west of the site.
History
There have been no documented site moves during the site’s history. The automatic weather station began operations on 29 January 1998.
But the BoM soon make Rutherglen safe for “global warming”…
Just two presentations here ACORN max and min compared to Rutherglen Research and a few near neighbours. Corowa is listed as an airport but must have started as a post office or similar.
Rutherglen Research is plagued by gaps. There are no ACORN adjustments to the max after Dec 1949 – There is a large gap in ACORN from 31 Oct 1959 – 2 Jan 1965 – a gap well known in Australian T data.
Yet CDO monthly data has numbers for that large gap except for Apr 1963 and all 1964. Differences between Rutherglen Research raw and ACORN chart points after 1950 are probably due to me averaging daily ACORN dailies into years – plus the fact that 82039 has no shortage of gaps. For example ACORN dailies have no data for Oct-Nov-Dec 1957 and 1959 has no dailies for Nov and Dec.
Comparison of max T – ACORN adjustments have no major effect on trend –
My point here is there is no sign of minimums in the Rutherglen district as cold as the BoM fabricated ACORN 82039 1913-1950’s.
So how on earth can these huge ACORN adjustments be justified?
New category now for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) ACORN SAT “Rolls Royce” adjusted temperature series
Just click on the ACORN category and the seven articles come up starting June 2012.
Bureau of Meteorology adjustments to construct ACORN SAT Adelaide temperature data Jan 1910 to Feb 1979
The Adelaide temperature history has been discussed at Jo Nova’s – Forgotten: Historic hot temperatures recorded with detail and care in Adelaide –
First – Adelaide weather data was collected at West Terrace for around a century then in Feb 1977 a new site commenced 3.2km away at Kent Town. The new BoM adjusted ACORN SAT data is named Adelaide – there is a downloadable ACORN SAT station catalogue if you go to the TAB ‘Data and network’ at the above link.
I wanted to make a start showing how the daily ACORN SAT (Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature) adjustments vary from day to day – seemingly inexplicably. Interesting patterns appear – interesting results emerge – the reasons for which I can only speculate on.
ACORN used West Terrace data till Kent Town started Feb 1977. Then ACORN used Kent Town minimum untouched from Feb 1977. However ACORN adjusted the Kent Town max Feb 1977 until end 2001. West Terrace closed end Feb 1979. The overlap period 1977-1979 for West Terrace and Kent Town showed the raw minimums differed over a greater range than the max diffs.
Here are the daily ACORN minus West Terrace adjustments 1910-Feb 1977 – Three interesting step changes in the minimum adjustments are seen circa 1943-1951 and 1961 – were there site changes?
This Table shows daily details for Jan 1939 – month of record max at time of the 1939 bushfires – now the Adelaide all-time highest max of 46.1 on 12 Jan magically becomes 46.4 according to the god-like BoM.
Here is an example of ACORN producing seven outlier cold nights in April 1960.
Kent Town 23090 max was adjusted to end of 2001 in ACORN – Looking at ACORN max minus Ken Town max we see that mostly the adjustments make ACORN warmer except for a period ~1983-1990 where the adjustments are more balanced either side of zero. Were there site changes ~1983 and 1990?
If the steps are due to Kent Town site changes – then this should have affected the minimums – but ACORN does not touch the Kent Town minimums.
For those interested to pore through spreadsheets –
[1] ACORN has minimum on 16 April 1961 at 5.8 yet no other station in District 23A went that low.
[2] April 1970 example of mystery missing minimums in ACORN on 5th and 27th – what was wrong with the West Terrace data ? Or is it related to those days being slightly warm peaks. An example of many ACORN mysteries.
It is not uncommon for ACORN to reject a days data for no apparent reason. There are many examples of ACORN missing out an extra day if West Terrace misses a day eg Jan and Jul 1913.
[3] In May 1972 from 4th to 10th ACORN makes no adjustments to a string of warm nights where West Terrace is usually the warmest night site in district 23A. This puzzles me – I can understand that the minimums at West Terrace are often too warm and I thought ACORN was tweaking these down so I ask – why this string of zero adjustments to a run of standout warm nights. Is this an indication that the ACORN algorithm was fully up to quota in May 1972? A contra result like this leaves me puzzled.
I am sure readers can come up with many ACORN puzzles.
North Queensland less threatened this morning – Cyclone Ita downgrades to a category 2
Last night at 10pm the ABC was featuring 230kph winds in headlines. Cyclone categories. This morning the max gusts I can see for Cape Flattery are about 160. Lucky.
Can anybody find anemometer readings over 160kph ?