Category Archives: BoM Australia

Weather Bureau for Australia

Australian Bureau of Meteorology 3 month Outlooks July to September far too hot again

Once again the BoM puts out these useless temperature Outlooks where NOT ONE square centimetre of Australia is predicted to be cooler than average.
Citizens should write their Commonwealth MP’s and Ministers asking why taxpayers money is still wasted on these ridiculous hot looking Outlooks. Australian weather just does not do what the BoM expects – is there some fever on the corporate brain of the BoM?

The rain Outlook below is exactly wrong too in several regions when you examine it.

The predicted dry in NSW – Qld turned out mostly average or sl wet.
South Australia through into Vic was predicted near average but turned out dry.
WA from the Pilbara south turned out to have about half the area wrong.
WA north of Pilbara was predicted dry but rain was above average.
Top of NT was precicted wet but turned out average or dry.
Tasmania….
When you just stand back and weigh it up – just a huge waste of taxpayers money – at a time when Govt is looking for savings.
If you search outlooks on my site you will see I have been pointing out these shortcomings for years.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology ACORN warming adjustments to Giles Met Station data do not stand up to scrutiny

The BoM has just this month added a downloadable table of ACORN adjustments to their www site. Giles was established as a purpose built meteorological station in 1956 – I read where its origins relate to Defence – Woomera rocket range. The site has never moved yet the BoM found a statistical reason to add warming to Giles minimum data with a -0.48° adjustment prior to 1 Jan 1998.
The BoM list 10 stations used to compare with Giles to arrive at their warming adjustment on 1/1/1998
1/1/1998 Statistical adjustment
Warburton Airfield 13011 – W
Watarrka 15652 – Wat
Carnegie 13015 – C
Uluru Rangers 15660 – U
Kulgera 15603 – K
Telfer Aero 13030 – T
Yulara Airport 15635 – Y
Marla Police Station 16085 – MPS
Coober Pedy Airport 16090 – CP
Curtin Springs 15511 – CS
This map shows the above 10 stations as well as other stations used to justify time of obs adjustments in 1964 and 1978 which I am not addressing specifically here – some stations are in more than one list. Abbreviations for the sites are after the BoM station number.
1978 Time of Obs adjustment
Warburton Airfield 13011 – W
Ayers Rock 15527 – hidden on map by Uluru Rangers
Telfer Aero 13030 – T
Ernabella 16013 – E
Newman 7151 – N
Curtin Springs 15511 – CS
Sand Hill 5064 – SH
1964 Time of Obs adjustment
Maralinga 18114 – Ma
Mundiwindi 7062 – M
Cook 18110 – Co

In the 1/1/1998 Statistical adjustment list – at least two stations are so low quality with huge gaps that I am amazed the BoM would use them to make changes to data from the purpose built – 24/7 professionally staffed Giles Met Office.
Warburton Airfield – comments on graphic from the Climate Data Online BoM site – just type in station numbers –

Uluru Rangers – once again so gap ridden it is staggering the BoM would use such low quality data to alter thousands of readings from the purpose built – 24/7 professionally staffed Giles Met Office.

There is more – most of these comparison stations are so far from Giles that there is no validity in the comparisons – some like Telfer and Newman are in a different climate zone. In 1991 when the BoM critiqued a paper of mine they said that Charleville and Cunnamulla were not neighbours and that “Regional differences in climate would present a major uncertainty in some of the conclusions drawn from the comparisons.” Readers can see from the map how far Charleville is from Cunnamulla – far closer than most of the BoM comparisons with Giles. BoM hypocrisy level is high.

Sydney rain in August contrary to Bureau of Meteorology 3 month Outlooks – which predicted Sydney to be drier than normal

Two consecutive BoM rain Outlooks are shown – both are shown to be hopelessly wrong for the Sydney region by the heavy August rain there.

Sackings at the BoM and ceasing these unreliable Outlooks would save some taxpayers money.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology winter temperature Outlooks turned out stunningly wrong again

How does the BoM get it so wrong so often? Not one square centimetre of Australia was predicted to be cooler than normal – yet millions of square kms turned out cooler than normal.

There really needs to be mass sackings.
BoM temperature Outlook winter 2014
BoM maps of actual temperature anomalies
It is obviously impossible to get these three month forecasts near correct often enough to be worthwhile – so why waste the time and money.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology needs to be questioned about their temperature adjustments – under conditions such as at a Royal Commission or at Senate Estimates

The latest article by Ken Stewart – Rutherglen: Spot the Outlier – builds on the momentum started by Dr Jennifer Marohasy who was a key to articles in The Australian on 23-24 August which questioned the BoM ACORN SAT high warming adjusted temperature series. And of course Jo Nova has been active on this issue for a long time.
Top BoM people need to be questioned about ACORN SAT under conditions where there is no escape – then truth might emerge into the light.

It is time to get Australian Bureau of Meteorology station histories out of archives – we need to see how good BoM metadata is

The best reference I know to BoM station diaries is the 45 page summary by Simon Torok for his 1996 PhD thesis – “The development of a high quality historical temperature data base for Australia”
This can be downloaded in full in several parts at –
minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/39449

However the Appendix A1 containing the 45 page summary of all station diaries he accessed can be downloaded as an 8MB pdf at – p38/46 Rutherglen station histories – I note their is no entry for Amberley and the entry for Rutherglen is brief.
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I saw these diaries in the BoM library at Lonsdale Street, Melbourne in the early 1990’s – a series of maybe foolscap ledgers. I assumed they were put into Commonwealth archives – National Archives of Australia.
If anybody can locate them – please let me know.

Amazing breakthrough by Dr Jennifer Marohasy getting articles critical of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in our national media

A rare example of the MSM publishing anything critical of the BoM “The Australian newspaper says – Bureau ‘altering climate figures’ – on page 9 of their The Nation section. My A4 scanner did not capture the full headline.

Then Andrew Bolt asks a pertinent question –
How much of this warming is real? How much was created back in the office?
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There is a second longer article on page 20 of the Inquirer section but I can not see that online. Scanned copy here. But Jen has a post on this – Heat is on over weather bureau ‘homogenising temperature records’.
Facts are the BoM has been stunningly successful in keeping this sort of criticism out of the MSM for near 25 years.

Renmark Aero has coldest ever 7 day run of August minimum temperatures – that is in eastern South Australia

Checking Renmark Aero minimums for 7 days 2 August to 8 August 2014 and they average -3.97°C.

Renmark has two stations with daily max & min T available – 24016 Renmark with data from 1957 to 2001 which had no seven day spell in August even breaking zero. Then Renmark Aero 24048 with data from 1995.
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So this August smashed the record somewhat. There must be many more cold minimum records around SE Australia to be hunted out this month.

Canberra Airport has coldest ever 14 day run of August minimum temperatures

Checking Canberra Airport minimums for 14 days 2 August to 15 August 2014 and they average -4.55°C.

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Has anybody noticed this months cold reported? There must be other minimum records from this month.

3rd August 2014 saw record cold mornings in Hay, Hillston and Lake Victoria – in New South Wales that is

While roughing it in a motel in the wilds of central NSW I heard the ABC weather lady say that Adelaide was enjoying a record cold August morning – a record since 1888 I think.
Yesterday was a pretty hard frost here so I have quickly checked a few records and it looks to me as though Hay, Hillston and Lake Victoria have had record cold mornings. Can anybody add to this list ? Or have additional info re Adelaide – South Australian cold.
It will be easier to check when the Sunday contoured map of minimum anomalies comes available.
Hay – yesterday -3.8 prev coldest -2.5 on 2 Aug 1997
Hillston yesterday -4.6 prev cold -3.3 on 7 Aug 1963
Lake Victoria yesterday -2.5 prev cold -1.4 on 16 Aug 1967
I just checked Google which finds no news on this – what would we hear if it was a record hot day?