Category Archives: Water

Australian wheat crop history does not shout “worst drought ever”

Of all the knee jerk green-media beatups – that of “worst drought ever” or variations on that theme to cover the years 2001 and later – would one of the most predictable storylines of recent years.

My experience is that when rainfall data for an area in question are examined – the claims usually do not stand up. But lets take a broadbrush approach –

Downunder wheat production

The graphic of Australian wheat production history (2010 number is an estimate from Abare) indicates a few dry years in the last decade but there must have been much useful rain.

Agreed ? – or wheat does not grow.

MDB water-buy-back scheme redundant after rains

Just now we are seeing a classic example of totally pointless Australian Government meddling – that can not do anybody – or the environment any good.

The last decade has seen much publicity by the “expensive water lobby” – much talk of “worst drought ever in the history of the planet” etc etc we have all heard the GreenMedia lies and exaggerations. This has driven the incompetent various Australian Govts to lather up in a Green fervour and plan to buy back water from irrigators – to simply pour into the river environments which would help maintain swamps a bit wetter than they otherwise might have been.

Unfortunately for all these high paid Green planners – SE Australia has had a wet winter and record wet September rainfall which has caused much wetting and even some flooding down our Murray Darling Basin waterways – including opening the Murray mouth to the sea for the first time in a long while.

So – in a nutshell – let us be thankful that nature has already done what the future water-buy-backs were planned to do.

Why not put all these expensive water-buy-back plans back in a file marked “NOT NEEDED NOW” – and we can be thankful that for the time being, nature has done the job for us. Let’s get off the backs of the irrigators and let them get on with their job.

BoM incompetence again – for the 5th month in a row

The BoM rolling 3 month rainfall Outlook prediction published in late March. Has turned out to be just as irrelevant and useless as the previous four.
Compare to the actual rain deciles for April-May-June the poor hapless BoM can only approach reality in the Kimberly-Northern Territory sector. All the other major features of their prediction are wrong.
Far Eastern Australia wet — EXACTLY wrong
South Australia – West Victoria dry — EXACTLY wrong
Sth Pilbara and much of WA wet — mostly wrong
Nth Qld dry patch — EXACTLY wrong

Why are we paying these dills to waste our taxes ?
Yet our Govt listens to BoM utterances on “climate change” as though they are written on tablets of stone.

Stunning ignorance and lies surround Perth water supply policies

This ABC online news item from Perth caught my eye, “Water prices up 40 per cent: Labor”. With Eric Ripper the Labor opposition leader saying, “Of course in a dry climate there is pressure on water prices..”
Wrong Mr Ripper, there is no “dry climate” over Perth dam catchments – see my graphic of 35 years of May-October catchments rain which averages near 900mm. Any water shortage in Perth is artificially induced by Govts failure to do simple things such as – manage catchments – clearing the Gnangara pines – cheaply desalinate weakly brackish water wasted from Wellington Dam and other local rivers (see my 2007 downloadable report). The only reason for this crazy state of affairs that I can see – is the Govts terror of hostile reactions from Greens.
Continue reading Stunning ignorance and lies surround Perth water supply policies

ABC Catalyst TV show warped view of SW West Australian rainfall

Quote from Catalyst: Mark Horstman
“Since the 1970s, the south-western corner of Western Australia has suffered a dramatic decline in their winter rainfall, so rapid and so extreme that it’s like, somewhere, a giant tap is being turned off.”
What utter exaggerated twaddle.
Once again the Australian media spins normal climate variations as something caused by IPCC climate change.
The entire thrust of the show is that rainfall in “..the south-western corner of Western Australia..” dropped ~15% in the 1970’s and a scientist is quoted linking this to changes in Antarctic ice cores. The scientist – Dr Tas van Ommen
Principal Research Scientist, Ice Cores and Climate, Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart – may well be right is linking the events – we will look for a peer reviewed paper on the subject.
My point is that there are many sudden rainfall change events in Australian climate history – and from larger regions than SW WA – and little attention is put into explaining these.
Lets take two examples from the BoM online “Timeseries – Australian Climate Variability and Change”.
Here is a graphic of West Australian rainfall – note the sharp increase in the 1990’s – what caused that ?
Here is a graphic of Murray Darling Basin rainfall – note the sharp increase in the 1940’s – what caused that ?
You can explore the BoM data for NSW etc and that huge increase in rain about 1950 often stands out. But it is a feature that nobody wants to explain.
Maybe because it corresponds with the period of post WWII cloud seeding experiments. Sorry – not PC.
Note my graphic of Perth dam catchment rain – steady over 35 years.
Finally a graphic of Perth rain history back to 1876 – note how the pre WWI winter rain is similar to the post 1970’s rain. Who is to say what is “normal” ? I am not aware of any “tablet of stone” which tells us whether the WWI to mid 1970’s high rain era was normal – or are the slightly dryer decades before and after more “normal”.

BoM rain predictions wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong again

Seeing this headline “Perth faces dry winter” – made me check BoM 3 month Outlook rainfall predictions again. They are as hopeless as ever – for month after month from November 2009 – the BoM has failed to predict the dominant wet over most of Australia.
Starting with the Outlook for summer (Dec-Feb) – the links below let you compare
the BoM prediction with real world rainfall. I am simply looking for the BoM to correctly predict the broad shape of the rain decile patterns – but I do not see that they are close to doing that over the past six months. If a private business was wrong this often – they would soon go broke.
Continue reading BoM rain predictions wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong again

Huge BoM rain and temperature prediction failures

This Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) prediction for summer made on 24 November 2009 has turned out to be so exactly wrong in several aspects. You can see in the BoM Outlook archive It is not only the 24 November prediction that is so wrong – check out their maps of predicted rain percentages published on 21 December, 19 January and there is no learning going on. Check actual rain here, choose 3 months to see summer rain.
BoM failure
The temperature Outlook for summer was just as hopeless but I have not got the time to put all these maps up – you can check against maps you can make here – make maps for 3 months for max and min anomaly, they compare with the BoM max and min temperature prediction maps for summer.
I am at a loss to understand how a well funded org of professionals can repeatedly get these Outlooks so wrong. Obviously the models they use are not worth a cup full of warm spit.
Australia pays for better and deserves better.

2009 update – Perth dam catchments rainfall still normal, Govt building $Billion seawater desalination plant #2

As this graphic continues to show – year after year, Perth dam catchments rainfall has proved remarkably reliable over 35 years in the face of recent WA Govt propaganda spruiking, “our drying climate”, etc etc.

See my late 2007 article, “There never was a rain shortage to justify seawater desalination for Perth’s water supply” and downloadable word doc with several rational proposals vastly cheaper and lower impact than seawater desalination to augment Perth water supply.

35 years Perth dams catchments rain

But the silly WA Govt are going ahead with the plus $Billion new desal plant at Binningup just north of Bunbury.

Disgraceful waste of taxpayer monies, exactly at a time we are entering economic rough times. Crazy. See the full page press advert your taxes paid for.

Read my July 2007: W.A. Govt propaganda takes water supply “post rain” and in May 2007: West Australian Premier talks utter nonsense about rainfall

What was it he said? – from Hansard:

Mr A.J. CARPENTER (WA Premier): “..It has stopped raining in the south west of Western Australia. The rain no longer falls from the sky in sufficient quantities to fill the dams to fill the pipes to fill the cups for people to drink…”

Clearly, politicians fed climate change rubbish from the ruling public service elite are believing their own incestuous propaganda.

All rain data from the Australian BoM – who else?