You know how the warmists parrot on that “satellites agree with surface temperatures” – not any more – they should check the data.

Half a decade back you could make the case that trends 1979-2005 in the old land only CRUTem2 were not too different from University of Alabama at Huntsville AMSU satellite based lower troposphere trends.

The introduction of the UKMO dominated CRUTem3 in 2006 saw the land trends 1979-2005 blow out and the just introduced CRUTem4 of Dr Phil Jones et al has increased the warming trend 1979-2010 again over the earlier CRUTems and satellites.
So the next time somebody says to you, “…well anyway the satellite temperature trends agree with the surface…”..
You should ask them to check the numbers because it simply is not so anymore.

Dr Phil Jones back in drivers seat with CRUTem4 updated land only global temperature data – warms more than the UKMO CRUTem3 and with remarkable early outliers from Rio

CRUTem4 is just released and shows more warming than the UK Met Office dominated CRUTem3. Before I get on to CRUTem4 – a quick reprise of my Jan 2007 post commenting on CRUTem3 compared to our old friend of many years CRUTem2 (which ended in 2005). “Huge variations now between the 3 main global T datasets – January 31st, 2007″. I argued the view the that one reason for UKMO getting involved in CRUTem3 was they wanted to reduce excess warming in CRUTem2 northern high latitudes – more on that in another post where I will explore where CRUTem4 finds the extra warming.

I downloaded global and hemispheric trends from the official CRU website, CRUTem2 and CRUTem3 and 4.
CRUTem2 is from 1856-2005 while CRUTem3 and 4 run 1850-2010.
So I ran the MS Excel linest function for the 1856-2005 period for all 3 series, global, northern & southern hemispheres.

And for 1850-2010 for CRUTem3 and 4. Results summarized in this matrix – all trends are degrees C per decade.

The global differences chart shows the effect of the warming adjustments in CRUTem4 in the last 20 years – and cooling adjustments in CRUTem4 from ~mid 1850’s to 1890. (obviously cooling those years warms the overall trend). Note that from 1895 to the mid 1980’s the CRUTem4 minus CRUTem3 differences are small. The warmth in 1852 will be discussed later but stems from Rio de Janeiro data.

The northern hemisphere differences chart shows the effect of the warming adjustments in CRUTem4 in the last 20 years – and cooling adjustments in CRUTem4 from 1850’s to mid 1870’s. Note again that from the mid 1870’s to the ~1990 the CRUTem4 minus CRUTem3 differences are small.
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The southern hemisphere differences chart shows the effect of the warming adjustments in CRUTem4 in the last 5 years – and cooling adjustments in CRUTem4 from the late 1850’s to ~1885 – much of which comes from adjustments to Australian grid boxes. (obviously cooling those years warms the overall trend). Note that from ~1895 to 2005 the CRUTem4 minus CRUTem3 differences are small. The outlier warmth in 1851-1852 stems from Rio de Janeiro data and we will investigate this in later articles.

Note that the Jones team already have some extra warmth built in for the CRUTem5 version – whenever that appears. They only have to adjust out the warm early years from Rio – and presto – there is a little more warming in the trend.
Added after comment #1.
Using the “Land” data from this University of Alabama at Huntsville site.
CRUTem3 warms much faster than the satellites and CRUTem4 faster still.

The period is to 2010 because CRUTem4 is not yet updated through 2011.
IMHO the CRU team consider themselves beyond effective scrutiny.

Fifty ex NASA scientists and engineers tell NASA GISS – “…the science is not settled”.

They say – “We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, We are living in a highly advanced era where things are supposed to simple, easy, straight forward and not anything less than perfect. It can improve tadalafil 5mg buy mood and will create a feeling of pinching. There were apparent developments in her endometrial thickness, cervical levitra generic canada look at more info mucus levels, and estrogen levels. The flavors will enable you enjoy the taste of this jelly can last from anyplace between 4 to 6 hours You will be able to satisfy both yourself and your partner in the bedroom It will increase your confidence and overall well-being You can safely buy sildenafil generic viagra from drugstores. especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.”
Thanks to Marc Morano for the tip.

Government wants a new director for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

I noted in April 2009 – “Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) now run by non-meteorologist”.
Government thanks outgoing Bureau of Meteorology director, Dr Greg Ayers – 20 February 2012.
I notice that 18th July 2011 Govt announced a “Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Capacity”.
They said then – The review is expected to present its findings to the government by the end of November 2011.
The review is being led by Ms Chloe Munro, who brings strong commercial skills and expertise in public policy and corporate finance through her senior leadership experience in the public and private sectors both in Australia and overseas.
Now – Easter Saturday 7 April 2012 Govt advertises for new Director of BoM

Odd that they are appointing a new boss while this review is still ongoing – but most things about our Govt are a bit weird.
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Still shown as Chairman of AquaSure on their website – AquaSure is the consortium building the Victorian Desalination Project.
12 May 2011 – Ms Chloe Munro has been appointed as Chair of the National Water Commission.
Then the 18th July 2011 appointment to Review the Bureau of Meteorology’s Capacity.
And on 10 Feb 2012 we see she is the Chair and Chief Executive Officer of the Clean Energy Regulator. Presumably the CER administers the Govts new Carbon Tax.
No wonder the BoM review is late – my head is in a spin.
Has anybody got insights re the public service history of the dynamic Ms Chloe Munro.

CRUT4 warms the USA by ~0.3 degrees C in 1997 compared to CRUT3

While working on my benchmarking study on April 5th, 2012 – I noticed a clearcut step change in 1997 between CRUT3 and CRUT4 over much of north America.
I have portrayed this in map form to understand better what the CRU team has done in the various grid boxes.

It seems that for most of the USA grid boxes CRUT4 is warmer by one division on the temperature anomaly scale (0.3 degrees C). But note the grid box for Los Angeles has warmed by 3 divisions or ~1 degree C.
I am intrigued that the CRUT team makes such large adjustments over the USA – home to so many climate researchers. In 2006 I found amazing agreement over the USA between HadCRUT2 and satellite lower troposphere temperature data. I assumed that was one area of the globe where the CRUT team had little “wriggle-room” to adjust data. Not so it seems.
Anyway, I will do more on the subject later but wanted to get this surprising result out there. Who was it said something like – “…the future is known – it is the past that changes…”

Landmark EIKE study of global temperature trends 1906-2005 using 2249 GISS stations concludes 0.17 UHI and a non-urban baseline warming only 0.41 degrees

This global study at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) – How Natural is the Recent Centennial Warming? – is the first that jumps to mind in over two decades by a group sceptical of AGW – that applies statistical analysis to thousands of temperature station data and concludes there is a standout UHI signal.
Andrew Bolt has an article on this – “Climate study: er, what man-made warming?”
I just hope this is the start of a determined research effort that might in the years ahead blunt the harm done to science by over two decades of the UHI infested various CRUTem versions.

Canberra electricity prices jump 17% due to Carbon Tax

The ACT despite being only the population (300K) of a medium city has an Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission (ICRC). There is no limit to bureaucracy here. Reading between the lines and noting the whingeing from ACTEW I suspect increases will not stop at 17%. I wonder what price hikes are due out in the States.
The Canberra blog RiotACT has an article – they also ran on staff cuts at Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency as they need to downsize from 900 to about 600 staff to meet the demands of its budget. Comments do not show much sympathy for staff there.

Benchmarking CRUT3 and CRUT4 land only grid box temperature trends against AMSU lower troposphere data for East China, Russia, Africa and North America

After comparing land only CRUT3 vs the shiny new CRUT4 for some Australian grid boxes I examined again grid box areas in East China, Russia, Africa and also North America which I have checked in past years for trend differences between CRUT data and AMSU satellite data from UAH. For map of grid box areas. Data from KNMI Climate Explorer
For East China the differences are large and have increased in CRUT4.

Over Russia differences are less and have increased in CRUT4.
In the case of the grid box over Africa the trend per decade differences between CRUT3 and AMSU are huge and have eased slightly in CRUT4. These results imply large errors in surface data – unless some other reason can be found.
In 2006 I found close agreement between satellites and CRUT2 over the USA. Now we find that CRUT4 finds more warming trend in the USA than did CRUT3 – this chart shows evidence of huge adjustments in 1850’s data – and also CRUT4 has been tweaked warmer in recent years. The North American grid box area still shows the closest agreement with satellites – but CRUT4 finds increasing warmth by a variety of adjustments. An example is this 0.25 degree jump in the CRUT4 minus AMSU trace at 1997. I wonder if this tweak was “peer reviewed” ?
Perhaps the CRUT team thinks USA climate scientists are not watching – we are told the science is settled – not where I am looking.

Another 3 months of spectacular failed BoM temperature and rainfall Outlook predictions

The maximum temperature Outlook must be a comprehensive failure over eastern Australia extending to the 50% line inside WA. Maps of actual weather averages can be made here.
The cool success in WA has to be limited by the warmth of the western WA coastal strip which would lower the score there. Overall surely a serious fail mark.

The minimum temperature Outlook must be an even worse failure – with not one square centimetre of the continent predicted to be even as cool as average. If anyone can spot the BoM 50% line – let me know. I see the “National night-time HotSpot†shining through – you can not hold down BoM errors.
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Even the rainfall Outlook fails overall despite a win or two here and there. You have to look at the huge areal extent of the predicted dry inside the 50% line – note the majority of the NSW highest ever rain areas were predicted dryer than average.

And our gullible policymakers and politicians are convinced the BoM can predict the future – what a sick joke.

Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations