China accuses Australia as Bonn climate talks founder

News out of the Bonn climate talks sounds familiar –
Beijing lashes Canberra as carbon talks stall
then from the Guardian –
Bonn climate talks end in discord and disappointment
and USAToday asks –
Is China poor? Key question at climate talks
Amidst all the posturing rhetoric it might be useful to see some facts charted.
First the magnitude of Chinese carbon dioxide emissions compared to Australia
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Australia could decarbonize back to the stoneage and the effect on Global emissions would not be measurable.
A chart of Chinese emissions compared to major global groupings.

A chart of Australian export income from coal –

larger version from source.

Australian hockey stick – whatever happened to the Great Barrier Reef coral time series ?

We have all heard now of the Gergis et al 2012 paper – “Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium”. Dr Joelle Gergis participated in “Winning the guerrilla war on climate change…” as Science met Parliament in 2010.
Sceptic blogs including Anthony Watts, Australian Climate Madness and John Ray have run comment.
I too was taken by their graphics Figs 3,4,5 & 6 which looked to show the 20th C only just warmer than past warm peaks – but my main interest was caught by the complete absence of coral time series from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) – see the map for yourself.
Now we all know that hundreds of millions of taxpayer $s over decades have been spent studying the GBR including coral cores and how can it be that Gergis et al neatly arabesque past all of that huge scientific resource.
I am hoping readers will have some insights as to why the large database of GBR coral timeseries has been ignored.
Before leaving – I noted on page 10 of 54 – line 225 this gem suggesting a rigorous cherry picking was going on. “Only records that were significantly (p<0.05) correlated with the detrended instrumental target over the 1921-1990 period were selected for analysis." Note that "instrumental target" means HadCRUT3v see Fig 2 - so if a series did not agree with the UHI affected Jones et al temperature trend - it was tossed out.

Australian Climate Commission makes dodgy claims about Western Sydney hot days

About a week ago Dr Tim Flannery, Professor Lesley Hughes and other Climate Commission luminaries went public with claims about hot days above 35C in Western Sydney including;
“…hot days had already increased 60 per cent in western Sydney since 1970…”
and – Federal Climate Commissioner Professor Lesley Hughes says western Sydney is getting disproportionally hotter and drier than the rest of Sydney.
“If we compare western Sydney with the rest of Sydney, the number of hot days in western Sydney used to be three times as many as eastern Sydney, and now it’s four times,” she said.
These claims are from the Climate Commission report – “The Critical Decade: New South Wales climate impacts and opportunities”. If you Google the report title you will find the ~5MB pdf download.
Here is the Climate Commission Figure 3 from page 4.

Which gives them the pictorial of increasing heat that they want you to believe.
Here is the entire Sydney record showing warm peaks in 1926 and the 1940’s – so deliberately censored out by the Climate Commission because those inconvenient data destroy their pro-IPCC storyline.

I have also shown the Richmond RAAF data which commenced in December 1939 (so missed out on Jan-March 39) and shows the all time peak of 36 days over 35 degrees in 1940 – despite 1940 data only including Jan to the first few days of May, no data for December. So the all time peak of 36 days over 35 degrees would probably have been higher if all the data had been preserved. Then there was no data for 1941-42 – 1943,44,45 were OK but 1946 only has Jan-May (with a few gaps) yet still made 21 days over 35C. The gap post May 1946 carries on through 1947-52. Then 1953 does not start until late April yet still made 15 days over 35C. So we are fortunate that enough data has been preserved from Dec 1939 to show up the Climate Commission distortions of our history.
To sum up how the Climate Commission has been misleading.
[1] Shortening the Sydney trend to censor out periods warmer than they want you to know about.
[2] Failing to find the well known Richmond RAAF data – which comprehensively ruins their storyline.
[3] Leaving a large gap in their Paramatta trend circa 1978 which they should have known was concealing a peak comparable to the last few years. Keeping their storyline intact again.
[4] Making all manner of scaremongering statements about heatwaves based on 1,2 & 3.
It is interesting to reflect that if Hitler had not invaded Poland in Sept 1939 – the RAAF would maybe not have been so active at their Richmond base and the BoM might not have commenced the temperature station there in Dec 1939.
And the Climate Commission would have been more likely to have succeeded with their misleading version of the history of hot days in Western Sydney.
Jennifer Marohasy and Basil Beamish have reported on these issues before me – thanks to them both.
Climate Commission Fudges Hot Day Data
and
Basil Beamish for Climate Commissioner – which shows how Bathurst data too ruins the Climate Commission fairystories.

Leave our Constitution alone – voters expect MP’s to act honorably

In the hurly burly of the Craig Thomson (MP for Dobell) affair there are calls for the Australian Constitution to be amended so members of Parliament have some sort of “code of conduct” under which they must operate. I would say if they know so little that they need a code – then we should not elect them in the first place. At present Section 44 sets out the circumstances under which members can be disqualified.
I do not want to reprise the Craig Thomson affair here – anybody awake in Australia must have the gist.
There is a petition circulating in the electorate of Dobell calling for Thomson to resign his seat.
I just wanted to make the point here that it is the colossal failure by Labor to act on the Craig Thomson matter over YEARS – that is the cause of the black hole in which the Prime Minister finds herself.
Secondarily to Thomson of course and unrelated there is the Speaker of the House Peter Slipper who has stood aside while allegations are investigated.

Australian clean energy future costs & benefits

Many people are concerned that huge policy changes are being made without due consideration of the realistic costs and benefits. So I asked www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au to point out to me with the assessment of costs and benefits were set out – they sent me the following 4 URL’s.

At the first I found a reference – 1.4 Risks to economic prosperity – to sea level rise affecting property worth $226Bn over the next century – that was all.

I found nothing at the Climate Commission.

Sorry I missed whatever was at this page.

Then at the Garnaut page I clicked for an update;
Mentions costs benefits
and and downloaded the Update pdf paper 540KB. “Weighing the cost and benefits of climate change action” by Ross Garnaut,

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When Prof RG mentions “non-market benefits” he is talking about things like the Great Barrier Reef – and life in Murray Darling Basin country towns.

on page 10 RG says – “The benefits can be difficult to observe and some only
accrue far into the future.” Indeed Professor.

I liked the bit where Prof Ross Garnaut says –
bottom page 8 “…messy world…” – yes it is terrible when people just do not do what you say Prof.
page 11 – in the last clause of para – Type 1: Currently-measurable market benefits;
we learn – “Climate change also dampens demand for labour, causing real wages to be lower,…”. OKay – so if we are experiencing “climate change” – how come our employment sector is booming Professor ?
Sorry but I can only read so much of this stuff.

New paper contends that carbon dioxide causes less than 50% of the greenhouse effect

Timothy Curtin, “Applying Econometrics to the Carbon Dioxide “Control
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pages, 2012. doi:10.1100/2012/761473.
Download a copy and lets have your views.

UK Government see-sawing with costs & benefits of their Climate Change Bill 2008

I was amazed to hear reports quoting UK MP Peter Lilley that the Climate Change Bill 2008 “….puts the Bill’s potential cost as up to £205bn, it says the maximum benefits of this massive expenditure is £110bn(out to 2050).” BBC article from Nov 2008.
I thought, surely no rational society would do something so harmful to itself.
In March 2009 the Labour Government drastically revised the costs & benefits which are now as in this screen-shot.

What a descent into fairyland – and of course the huge and utterly illusory benefits are pumped up by the benefits of UK emission reductions around the world (page 7 of the pdf).
Do readers have an idea where the UK Govt is with all this now in May 2012 ?

Aerial thermal scans over Perth – 16 years after this technology was used in the USA to measure urban heat island (UHI) effects

Chris Gilham has posted an item from the West Australian newspaper reporting the results of aerial thermal scans over Perth by a commercial firm Scantherma.
Of course this imagery can be used to prove the existence of the urban heat island (UHI) which magically never finds its way into IPCC temperature trends.
It is good to see this airborne technology used in Australia but airborne and satellite imagery has been detecting the UHI for decades. Here are several examples.
Continue reading Aerial thermal scans over Perth – 16 years after this technology was used in the USA to measure urban heat island (UHI) effects

Australian Bureau of Meteorology to trial online advertising

News comes out on Federal Budget night – which we all know is a classic PR tactic to bury news that Govt preferred was not noticed. So when you want to go online and check your local forecast – that you have amply paid for with your taxes over the years – you might now be offered – who knows what desirable goods or services ? Time will tell.
Do we have any readers out there familiar with online adverising who could estimate some potential numbers for us and take a guess at the type of advertising we might be offered.
Note too that the BoM despite being the subject of at least two inquiries – garners another 40 staff at $120,000 each – $4.8million.
I have a letter from the Australian National Audit Office stating their – “…2011 Audit Work Program includes two potential audits on the Bureau of Meteorology.”
I see too that in Dec 1999 there was an audit of the BoM into Severe weather. Interesting to see no mention of “flash flooding” – yet flash flooding killed so many people near Toowoomba in early 2011. Despite flash flooding being noted around Toowoomba by various newspaper reports over the last 100 years.

USA and European solar research groups differ over whether sunspots increased or decreased in April

Just noticed that the SWO sunspot number published by NOAA increased for April while the RI number published by the ROYAL OBSERVATORY OF BELGIUM decreased.

Just eyeballing the graph it looks to be a significant difference of opinion.
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Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations