Another wild exaggeration from IPCC 1990 – global temperature should be about 0.6 degrees up on 1990

That is from their “Business As-Usual Best Estimate” – of course the real world result is less than half of that.
I see Jo Nova drawing attention to warmist claims that predictions of IPCC 1990 are coming true – reported uncritically of course by the ABC.
Clive Best dealt well with this issue last year.

We must not forget that policymakers were herded to the Rio conference in 1992 and fed a pack of lies.
IPCC 1990 also predicted sea level rise would be twice what it has turned out to be.

Australian Alps snow depth history – 78 years of noisy data but little long term trend

A reader asked me if I had any historic snow depth data for Australia and drew my attention to Chiefios blog.
There is a Snowy Hydro webpage with some annual snow depth charts and I have used those charts from Spencers Creek to build a maximum depth time series.
I also have a 1990 report – “The South East Australian Alpine Climate Study” – by CSIRO, University of Melbourne and Alpine Resorts Commission. That has a graphic on page 19, Fig 2.4 Annual maximum snow depth (water equivalent in cm) for Rocky Valley Snow Pole Line 1935 – 1989.
I have digitised those data and let Excel plot the two time series below.

As usual the data do not support the normal media predictions that the ski industry is doomed. We know the Australian ski-fields do not have great heights of mountains above them – the pioneers worked that out – no news there.
But the data does not show any sign that “Global Warming” is wiping out the Australian ski resorts.

Another wild exaggeration from IPCC 1990 – sea level rise touted to be 6cm per decade

The claim of a 6cm per decade rise is from their 1990 Executive Summary.
Note on the graphic 2012_rel4: Global Mean Sea Level Time Series (seasonal signals removed) – from this IPCC compliant Org – the claimed rate from adjusted satellite data is only 3.1mm per year – HALF of IPCC 1990.

But there is more – checkout the new Jo Nova article – Are sea-levels rising? Nils-Axel Mörner documents a decided lack of rising seas. Nils-Axel Mörner says the unadjusted satellite data show negligible trend and in his new pdf paper SEA LEVEL IS NOT RISING – has this stunning graphic.

So the rate of sea level rise is just an artifact of IPCC compliant adjustments.

New South Wales Aboriginal Land Council applies for vast areas of NSW under Petroleum Special Prospecting Authority Applications

This was reported in The Australian in May but has recently hit TV news.
The first map shows current Petroleum Exploration Licences.

The next shows applications not yet approved as licences and by far the largest area are Petroleum Special Prospecting Authority Applications by the New South Wales Aboriginal Land Council (NSWALC) – approx three-eighths of the State.

The main area of applications that is not NSWALC is the block in the NW corner of the State, north of Broken Hill which is by Northern Territory Oil Limited. Some areas with darker colours might be overlapping applications by competing parties. The NSWALC has very recently become noticed in the world of mineral exploration too, making “expressions of interest” EoI for two uranium exploration areas in the State, exactly which areas I do not know.
Continue reading New South Wales Aboriginal Land Council applies for vast areas of NSW under Petroleum Special Prospecting Authority Applications

After the “one day wonder” heatwave – the Victorian Alps get a dusting of snow 5-6 Dec 2012

After more than a week of scaremongering media about the rapidly decaying “heatwave” – the Victorian Alps get a dusting of snow last night. And Canberra wakes to learn the night touched an all-time record low temperature for December – plus there were snowfalls on the Brindabella Range. Goulburn and Braidwood also had record cold nights. Gotta love weather.

On 27 Nov the BoM warned of a widespread, severe heatwave – turned out a short heatwave

For many centres it was a one day wonder – although record heat was felt at Mildura and in that region on the 29th. But how quickly we forget our history – just compare Mildura in 1894 and 1902 with 2012. 1894 saw 4 days strait over 40 while 1902 saw 12 days over 40 incl 4 strait. 2012 only had 1 day over 40 – 2 if you count the 39.8 near miss as a 40. So that is 2 in 2012 vs 12 in 1902 – no contest.

Find early daily data at this BoM site
Over enthusiasm for the prospect of some hotter days lead the BoM to exaggerate forecasts for a week or so as this “widespread, severe heatwave” decayed and cooled very rapidly. See my earlier posts re Canberra region — Sydney — and Brisbane.

BoM exaggerated Brisbane heatwave – and it was only a “one day wonder”

It puzzles me that recent Brisbane forecasts have all been inaccurate with the errors being the same way – forecasts are too hot. I do not expect exact forecasts but I expect errors should be roughly even both ways. Media claptrap about a “heatwave” has been apparent since late November heat built in the centre culminating in the all time record hot November day of 45.5 degrees at Mildura on the 29 November. This heat spread south east, east and north-east but the intensity decayed quicker than the BoM forecast – see my earlier post re forecast failures for Sydney and Canberra.
Date Brisbane Forecast – Brisbane Weather
27-Nov——- 30 ——-29.4
28-Nov——- 32 ——-30.3
29-Nov——- 31 ——-29.9
30-Nov——- 32 ——-30.6
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2-Dec——– 32 ——-29.8
3-Dec——– 33 ——-31
4-Dec——– 39 ——-37.9
Brisbane media Dec 2nd and on the 3rd

The Carmody Inquiry into the Heiner Affair commences today

The Carmody Inquiry commences its hearings into the Heiner Affair today 3 December 2012 at 10.00am (Australian EST). In February I posted “The Heiner Affair – 20 odd years of Labor and Government cover-up”
This will run on for months I suppose.

Massive failure in BoM forecast temperatures Sydney and SE regions

Friday night I started thinking the forecasts for Saturday max’s looked a trifle optimistic – so Saturday morning I kept a screen dump of Sydney region forecast max. I have just added what look to be the max’s from this BoM page. The BoM has access to more detailed data so numbers will change slightly.

Results from the regions seem similarly skewed too hot, forecast number from Canberra Times first then reality.
Canberra 33 — 30
Goulburn 35 — 29.1 Airport
Cooma 30 — 27 Airport
Wagga 34 — 28.5
Hay 34 — 32.5 Airport
BrokenHill 32 — 30.3 Airport
Dubbo 41 — 39
Bourke 43 — 41.8
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But of course all the TV News weather people quote the original forecast numbers as though they actually happened.
Added Sunday early am: Friday results were pretty poor too.
Goulburn 36 — 33.6 Airport
Cooma 33 — 28.2 Airport
Wagga 39 — 35
Albury 39 — 34
Hay 40 — 36.7 Airport
BrokenHill 40 — 36.2 Airport
Mildura 34 — 31.5
SwanHill 35 — 33

Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations