Australian Bureau of Meteorology constantly fiddling with our temperature data

Thanks to Ian George for noticing this recent large change in the ranking of 2009 compared to 1998 in the BoM chart of annual mean temperature anomalies.
The charts come from the BoM Annual Australian Climate Statement 2011 and Annual Australian Climate Statement 2012.
Animation of the graphs for two years.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) own time series graphs web page fails to back up their claims of the “hottest January ever” Australia-wide.

On page 10 of 23 the BoM “Special Climate Statement 43 – extreme heat in January 2013” – Updated 1 February 2013 – says –
“2.5 Monthly mean temperatures for January
January 2013 was Australia’s hottest month on record. Averaged nationally, the
maximum temperature was 36.92°C, 2.28°C above the 1961-1990 average, and 0.11°C above the previous record of 36.81°C, set in January 1932. The monthly mean
temperature (day and night combined) also set a record. It was 29.68°C, 1.77°C above the 1961-1990 average and 0.27°C above the previous record of 29.41°C, also set in January 1932.”
Now making graphs for each of the States and Territory at this BoM web page. When you check out what I have done, make sure you set the page to Mean Temperature – choose your State – then pick January.
Continue reading Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) own time series graphs web page fails to back up their claims of the “hottest January ever” Australia-wide.

Perth Metro BoM station 09225 looks to be reading too warm from mid-2011 – could much publicised summer hot days be exaggerated ?

Perth summers (Dec-Jan-Feb) as measured at Perth Metro in Mount Lawley looked too warm for 2012 and 2013 when compared with Perth Airport 09021. The differences for summer mean max between the Airport and the old Regional office (1898-1992) going back to 1945 and Perth Metro 1994-2013 show that 2012 and 2013 fall clearly outside a long established band.

I noticed there were instrument changes at Perth Metro in July 2011 – not sure if they were the instruments that read the daily max. I checked Perth Airport summers against Pearce RAAF 1994-2013 and all differences fell in a band – which also suggests that Perth Metro is faulty.
Anybody reading our media just now will find plenty of articles from the BoM spruiking the “hottest summer ever” for Australia.
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Looking forward to hearing what others think of the Perth data.

Deep snow in northern Japan – BBC asks -“…is it another result of global warming?”

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Satellites define the surface urban heat island (UHI) for 419 global cities

Matt Ridley’s page “The greening of the planet” lead me to the work of Professor Ranga Myneni of Boston University. A page listing his publications has a link to this 2012 paper – “Surface Urban Heat Island Across 419 Global Big Cities”.

Peng et al., 2012 Surface Urban Heat Island Across 419 Global Big Cities, Environ. Sci. & Tech., Environ. Sci. Technol., 2012, 46 (2), pp 696-703, DOI:10.1021/es2030438
ABSTRACT: Urban heat island is among the most evident aspects of human impacts on the earth system. Here we assess the diurnal and seasonal variation of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) defined as the surface temperature difference between urban area and suburban area measured from the MODIS. Differences in SUHII are analyzed across 419 global big cities, and we assess several potential biophysical and socio-economic driving factors. Across the big cities, we show that the average annual daytime SUHII (1.5 ± 1.2 °C) is higher
than the annual nighttime SUHII (1.1 ± 0.5 °C) (P < 0.001). But no correlation is found between daytime and nighttime SUHII across big cities (P = 0.84), suggesting different driving mechanisms between day and night. The distribution of nighttime SUHII correlates positively with the difference in albedo and nighttime light between urban area and suburban area, while the distribution of daytime SUHII correlates negatively across cities with the difference of vegetation cover and activity between urban and suburban areas. Our results emphasize the key role of vegetation feedbacks in attenuating SUHII of big cities during the day, in particular during the growing season, further highlighting that increasing urban vegetation cover could be one effective way to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

An amazing example of collective amnesia at CSIRO

My attention was caught by this loaded and evocative headline in the Canberra Times “Plant life losing battle with emissions”, for an article introducing the latest whizz-bang new CSIRO paper, “The Australian terrestrial carbon budget”, Haverd et al 2013.
Haverd et al say – “The Australian landscape soaked up one third of the carbon emitted by fossil fuels in Australia over the past twenty years…”
Which is at odds with the 1992 CSIRO paper by R.M.Gifford which said – “The present modelled rate of net sequestration is of a similar magnitude to CO2 emissions from continental fossil fuel burning and land clearing combined.”
What amazed me though was that the current paper does not reference Gifford 1992 when eight of the ten authors are from CSIRO.
I expect to have more to say later but here are a couple of graphics.
I have been trying to find the number for the size of the Australian carbon sink, not annual changes but gross size – the only figure I can find is from the 1998 website CompleXia titled, “HOW BIG IS AUSTRALIA’S SOIL CARBON STORE?” which says, “Preliminary estimates suggest that Australia’s soil carbon sink is of the order of 48 Gt (Gifford et al. 1992).” Thats 48 gigatonnes, 48,000,000,000 or 48 billion tonnes. Just to get that number on scale compared to the figures below, that is 48,000 Tg or terragrams used in Haverd et al and also 48,000 Mt or megatonnes used by Gifford – a megatonne is 1,000,000 tonnes, one million tonnes.
Summary of the Australian territorial carbon budget, 1990–2011. from Haverd et al 2013.

and Figure 1 from Gifford 1992

Ends here

Nairobi Airport turns out to be an aberrant CRUT4 station – possible source for the exaggerated warming claim in David Attenborough BBC TV show “Africa”

Following my articles of a few days ago – BBC exaggerated warming trend in David Attenborough’s TV show “Africa” and – CRUT4 surface temperature grid box anomalies trend over Kenya compared to NASA satellites lower troposphere – the source of the David Attenborough 3.5° warming claim explained. I have dug into station data for the 5 degree grid box over Kenya and it looks clear after comparing anomalies with Garissa, that the Nairobi Airport data carries non-climatic warming from the late 1990’s. Although Garissa is almost 300km away in the NE of the grid box and both stations have many data gaps – the difference points to Nairobi Airport data being faulty.
Nairobi Airport temperature anomalies

Garissa temperature anomalies

Difference Nairobi Airport minus Garissa

It is a puzzle how Jones et al data can carry such obvious standout mistakes after years of polishing through how many versions? – plus years of input from the UKMO? IPCC science must surely be in a very shoddy state.

CRUT4 surface temperature grid box anomalies trend over Kenya compared to NASA satellites lower troposphere – the source of the David Attenborough 3.5° warming claim explained

A few days ago I posted – BBC exaggerated warming trend in David Attenborough’s TV show “Africa”. Well here is an explanation for the scary warming rates quoted by TV host David Attenborough. Satellites detect no significant warming over the gridbox covering the Kenyan localities mentioned in the Guardian story.

While CRUT4 surface data agrees pretty well with satellites up to about 1998 – after that the surface departs erratically much warmer, improving somewhat in 2012. I would bet the sheep station that the surface data will be at fault here, probably micro-site effects – note the increased data gaps too. Remember these anomalies are from the entire grid-box area – there will be individual stations better and worse.
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Note data from KNMI Climate Explorer thanks.
Ed note 19 Feb – the original graphic was mistakenly made with data from a 5 x 10° grid box 5S to Equator and 30-40E. Should have been 35-40E. As the graphic is now. The CRUT4 data looked identical for the two grid areas but satellite numbers changed slightly as you would expect.

Weatherzone’s Dr Dutschke predictions of 40° in Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne during mid- to late-February – how is that working out Dr Dutschke ?

A week ago I posted – February not turning out stellar hot so far – Weatherzone prediction fall flat on face so far – 6.8° out for Sydney
The SMH article of 4 Feb 2013 “Cool spell soon to be broken” – has the following quotes from Dr Dutschke of Weatherzone (a Joint Venture between the BoM and Fairfax).
[Beyond this week, more heat can be expected with weather models point to a hotter spell by mid- to late-February, Weatherzone’s Dr Dutschke said.
Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne could all see temperatures of 40 degrees from that second heatwave, he said.]
BoM forecasts out to 23 Feb – no heatwaves being forecast yet – but hey it is summer.

Still waiting to see any sign of your prediction coming to pass Dr Dutschke.

USA proposing a Carbon Tax that seems to be copying key parts of the Australian Carbon Tax

Just saw this on Anthony Watts – Boxer’s carbon tax proposal would enrich people already feeding from the public trough…
Note this quote – “It would impose a fee on carbon emissions at their source, such as coal mines, raising the price of fossil fuel energy.
But instead of giving the proceeds to the government, three-fifths of the money would be refunded to U.S. residents.”

Shades of GreenLabor in Canberra paying out Carbon Tax revenues to its low-income constituents and welfare recipients as “compensation” for rising electricity bills and other Tax impacts. We have all heard Labor figures gloating that they are “over-compensating”. Just another Socialist redistribution of the Nations wealth.
I only saw one commenter at Watts that picked up on the similarity to the Australian CTax.

Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations