“The Antarctic ship, Aurora Australis, has sailed into Hobart after spending days stuck in ice.”
Days ? – try 21 days.
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Last month I posted – Australian Antarctic supply ship Aurora Australis blocked by ice again – and a $Billion of our taxes props up this highly political green-left media org. The Govt should halve the taxpayers spending on the ABC now – then look at reforming what remains so ABC news and current affairs output is balanced.
Some checking of Australian temperature trends for various data series lead me to compare UAH and RSS satellites – so I choose the land only block of much of Australia – 30°South to 20°South and 120°East to 145°East. The chart shows the very noticeable 0.5°C warming in UAH compared to RSS over 2005-2006.
The warming trends over the 41 months Jan 1979 to Sep 2013 are –
UAH warmed at 0.61°C while RSS, CRUT4 & GHCN CAMS warmed at 0.23, 0.35 & 0.31 respectively.
All the above data has been obtained from KNMI Climate Explorer. twomeyautoworks.com order levitra online First of all, you have to find a company that will negotiate it are right for you. If you are looking for branded lifestyle medications sure they are in good health. viagra prices In this context, one thing is very essential and that is the frequency of consumption, which strictly depends on the resistance of body. This generic ED medicine should be taken only when required and once in order levitra online this page on sale now 24 hours. The following pair of anomaly maps show various regions where UAH and RSS differ greatly.
Australia, Southern Africa, South America, Sahara, various tropical ocean areas, Europe – you can find plenty of examples.
I have heard from UAH that the differences are due to a combination of diurnal corrections, the changing satellite mix and natural differences between surface and lower troposphere.
SWO numbers updated now.
NOAA NASA SWO sunspot numbers data
Solar Influences Data analysis Center – Royal Observatory of Belgium – for the RI sunspot data
Solarham pages with current data on our sun
The maximum anomaly result (day time) is worse than the minimum (night time).
Both temperature outlooks have the broad shape wrong – you could describe the outlooks contour maps as concave with higher temperatures predicted around the coast – whereas real world results tended to be convex with higher temperatures more central.
Running a check on BoM Outlooks for the two 3 monthly periods –
Jul to Sep and Aug to Oct. Temperature Outlook archive here Rainfall Outlook archive here – All links should open in a new window.
National temperature outlook Aug Oct 2013 max and min temperatures
Aug Oct max T actual anomalies
Aug Oct min T actual anomalies
The temperature Outlooks tend to be exactly the wrong shape – high around the coastal rim and low in the centre – exactly opposite to the real world anomalies.
Remembering the huge media publicity recently about record heat across Australia in September 2013 – it is inexplicable that the BoM Outlooks did not see the record September heat coming.
Jul Sep rain Outlook
Jul Sep rain actual deciles
Aug Oct rain Outlook
Aug Oct rain actual deciles
I will say it again, BoM seasonal Outlooks are so unreliable and useless the BoM should abandon producing the time-wasters. Put precious taxpayer resources to better use or just save the money.
My eye was caught by this media today in the SMH – Drought relief: $7.6m for Bourke, Brewarrina, Walgett – 21 Nov 13
Quote – Deputy Premier Andrew Stoner said producers were dealing with “extraordinarily difficult circumstances” which had left farmers and rural townships “very stressed”.
“North-west of our state is undergoing a very serious drought. The producers in those areas are talking about the lowest rainfall …in more than 100 years,” he said.
We know the last few months have not seen much rain up there – checking out the BoM Drought maps.
3 months 1 Aug 2013 – 31 Oct 2013 – large areas not in drought
6 months 1 May 2013 – 31 Oct 2013 – most areas not in drought
9 months 1 Feb 2013 – 31 Oct 2013 – vast areas not in drought
12 months 1 Nov 2012 – 31 Oct 2013 – minor areas in drought
18 months 1 May 2012 – 31 Oct 2013 – a few areas in drought
24 months 1 Nov 2011 – 31 Oct 2013 – no areas in drought
Switching to the rain decile maps now
36 months 1 Nov 2010 – 31 Oct 2013 – above average rain
36 months 1 Nov 2007 – 31 Oct 2010 – above average rain
I wonder if a few patchy areas of short term drought should qualify as – “…a very serious drought”.
Particularly when considering that averaged over six years they have had above average rain. Whatever happened to putting feed aside in good times to get through the bad.
We have made slow progress over the last 24 hours due to pack ice conditions. This morning the ship was stopped and a decision made to wait for improving ice conditions (which is anticipated) rather than continuing breaking of ice at a snail’s pace consuming significant volumes of fuel. The situation will be assessed over the next 12 hours.
The Sydney Morning Herald ran this article – Typhoon Haiyan influenced by climate change, scientists say – there must be hundreds of articles written along the same general drift. In this case a map of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is presented by the SMH for the period 3rd to 5th Nov.
Note the location of the warm anomaly is from 160-165 East and between 5 South & 5 North.
Here is a map of Typhoon tracks including the Haiyan path extended as far east to its origins as I can find.
Note that Haiyan originated in the grid box 155-160 East and 5-10 North. A fair distance from the grid box where the weak SST anomalies highlighted in the SMH article were supposed to cause the Typhoon to form.
Note also that the storm moved westwards to near 145 East before the windspeeds attracted attention and the Typhoon was reported.
At this NOAA site you can make SST anomaly maps for 3 or 4 day periods and personally I am not seeing SST anomalies that stand out as being exceptional in late October – early November.
I have been looking for an animation of the jet streams in that region, no luck so far. I thought this page was interesting discussing the Madden-Julian oscillation.
Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations
