Australian BoM bites bullet and calls off 2012 El Nino prediction – “…biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.”

That is a big call – like many I have been watching the SOI unable to make up its mind. Anyway – read what the Bureau of Meteorology is saying.
“Forecasters surprised by El Nino turnaround” on ABC news
Pacific’s late retreat to neutral considered unusual – Bom official statement 23 October 2012
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values – source of SOI numbers and stats every day.
Main page for dear old BoM.

5 comments to Australian BoM bites bullet and calls off 2012 El Nino prediction – “…biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.”

  • Philip Bradley

    This doesn’t surprise me. In the last 2 years there has been a pronounced seasonality in both SSTs and troposphere temperatures. Warm anomalies in the NH summer, which then drop down to cold anomalies anomalies in the NH winter, with this year looking to follow the same pattern.

    I don’t know why the SH would follow the same cooling/warming pattern as the NH.

    www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/uah-v5-5-global-temp-update-for-sept-2012-0-34-deg-c/

  • John M

    You almost feel sorry for poor old Tim Flannery, his hopes of drought and some credibility restored, and now this devastating news.

    One could almost be forgiven for thinking that this is proof of a higher spiritual ‘all powerful” entity whose name is NOT Gaia !

  • Dr K.A. Rodgers

    “a higher spiritual ‘all powerful” entity whose name is NOT Gaia”

    On the other hand she could well be called Gaia and is just demonstrating that she has a keen sense of humour. After all Verdi knew all about it: “La donna è mobile”.

  • pjb253

    The Nino3-4 future is still a bit unclear to me. Actually its always unclear to me.
    From: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

    Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
    Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA
    26SEP2012 21.0 0.5 25.1 0.2 26.9 0.2 29.1 0.4
    03OCT2012 20.5-0.1 24.8-0.1 26.8 0.1 29.0 0.3
    10OCT2012 20.2-0.6 24.7-0.2 26.8 0.1 29.1 0.4
    17OCT2012 20.5-0.4 25.0 0.1 27.0 0.3 29.1 0.5
    24OCT2012 21.0 0.0 25.0 0.1 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7

    Western Pacific going up, Eastern Pacific going down

  • Beachgirl

    I notice at Longpaddock – the 30 day SOI has been just positive all October. The 90 day av. in near neutral.
    Surely there is little chance of an El Nino until those numbers swing negative.

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