Australian BoM bites bullet and calls off 2012 El Nino prediction – “…biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.”

That is a big call – like many I have been watching the SOI unable to make up its mind. Anyway – read what the Bureau of Meteorology is saying.
“Forecasters surprised by El Nino turnaround” on ABC news
Pacific’s late retreat to neutral considered unusual – Bom official statement 23 October 2012
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values – source of SOI numbers and stats every day.
Main page for dear old BoM.

5 thoughts on “Australian BoM bites bullet and calls off 2012 El Nino prediction – “…biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.””

  1. You almost feel sorry for poor old Tim Flannery, his hopes of drought and some credibility restored, and now this devastating news.

    One could almost be forgiven for thinking that this is proof of a higher spiritual ‘all powerful” entity whose name is NOT Gaia !

  2. “a higher spiritual ‘all powerful” entity whose name is NOT Gaia”

    On the other hand she could well be called Gaia and is just demonstrating that she has a keen sense of humour. After all Verdi knew all about it: “La donna è mobile”.

  3. The Nino3-4 future is still a bit unclear to me. Actually its always unclear to me.
    From: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

    Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
    Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA
    26SEP2012 21.0 0.5 25.1 0.2 26.9 0.2 29.1 0.4
    03OCT2012 20.5-0.1 24.8-0.1 26.8 0.1 29.0 0.3
    10OCT2012 20.2-0.6 24.7-0.2 26.8 0.1 29.1 0.4
    17OCT2012 20.5-0.4 25.0 0.1 27.0 0.3 29.1 0.5
    24OCT2012 21.0 0.0 25.0 0.1 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7

    Western Pacific going up, Eastern Pacific going down

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